Bangladesh instigates India The Excelsior 21 Jun 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/bangladesh-instigates-india/
Bangladesh instigates India The Excelsior 21 Jun 2025
Speaking at Chatham House in UK last week, Bangladesh Chief Advisor Mohamad Yunus mentioned, ‘All the anger (against Hasina) has now transferred to India because she went there,’ He added that PM Modi refused to curtail her social media activities. Speaking on why relations with India continue to falter he mentioned, ‘somehow things go wrong every time because of all the fake news coming from the Indian press.’ Is India responsible or is Dacca?
The Bangladesh Supreme Court restored the registration and symbol of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), an Islamist anti-India party, banned from participating in the electoral process since 2013. The JeI and its student wing, Chhatra Shibir, led protests which overthrew the Sheikh Hasina government in Aug last year, resulting in the emergence of Mohamad Yunus as the head of state. Hence, evidently Yunus pushed the courts to grant a favourable decision to JeI as thanksgiving.
The JeI is pro-Pakistan, seeks closer ties with it and had earlier, during non-Awami League governments supported NE insurgents in establishing hideouts on Bangladesh soil. The JeI’s anti-India stance as also desire to establish an independent Rohingya State could impact India’s NE linking projects through Myanmar including the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the Sittwe Port.
This was the latest in a series of actions, taken by the Yunus government, impacting India’s security. There have been many more. Members of Yunus’s interim government have been commenting against India almost on a daily basis building an anti-India narrative degrading Indian soft power, built over decades. Last week, the ancestral home of Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore was vandalized. Involving China in reviving its old airbase at Lalmonirhat, located 12-15 km from the border and in proximity to the Siliguri Corridor is also irking India.
In March, Bangladesh shut three land ports and suspended operations at a fourth, blocking import of yarn for its textile industry, possibly with the intent of procuring them from Pakistan. This, despite warnings from its own Knitwear organizations, that it would impact their sole export industry.
Indian intelligence agencies had flagged members of two Bangladeshi terrorist groups, Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh and Ansarullah Bangla Team, as being behind the recent anti-wakf board violence at Murshidabad in West Bengal. There is no doubt that there is a large presence of illegal Bangladeshis in West Bengal’s border districts. Dacca objected to being named.
India’s anti-illegal immigration drive has resulted in pushing back illegal Bangladeshi migrants settled in various parts of the country. There are reports emerging of Bangladesh border guards refusing to let them enter as also of anger within the Yunus administration.
Politically, banning of the Awami League from participating in elections as also commencing the absentee trial of Sheikh Hasina have not gone down well with India. India has firmly turned down repatriation of Sheikh Hasina. It is known that Yunus always had political ambitions, which were thwarted by Hasina, hence his revenge act.
The political environment in Bangladesh is anything but stable. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has lost ground over the years. The banning of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League opens doors for the emergence of JeI as a political force. Such an action would push Bangladesh towards Islamization and closer to Pakistan. This appears to be the game plan of Yunus.
Added are his disagreements with the army. Yunus’s intent to open a humanitarian corridor for Rohingya refugees is the latest flashpoint with the army. The corridor is the desire of the UN but a security concern for Bangladesh, which the army refused to back. An army spokesperson mentioned, ‘There will be no corridor. The sovereignty of Bangladesh is not negotiable.’ It is currently on hold.
The other disagreement was the leasing of the Chittagong Port to a Dubai-based global logistics company, DP World, as part of a government-to-government (G2G) agreement. The army considers it a security risk. Yunus’s decision to conduct elections in Feb next year is against the army’s demand for it this year end.
Yunus had threatened to resign, when pressured by the army, but was prevented by the JeI and its student wing. Violence continues in the country, with the government unable to control it. The army remains deployed to maintain law and order. The economy is sinking with its garment exports receding. The gains that the country made over decades are being pushed back due to Yunus seeking revenge and supporting Bangladesh becoming an Islamist state under JeI.
Yunus has no intent on remaining in the country till the end. He will, after pushing the JeI to power and extracting revenge against those who thwarted his political career, move back to the UK or US, where he has substantial investments. Neither will his family reside in the country. Bangladesh would be pushed into an abyss from which re-emergence will need strong political determination.
There have been reports of US teams landing in Dacca and moving to Cox’s bazar. It is possible that they are there to support the largely Christian Kuki-Chin rebels of Myanmar currently battling the Myanmar army, hoping to bring about a regime change. The US intent appears to be to interrupt the Chinese backed CMEC (China Myanmar Economic Corridor). Bangladesh ports overlook the Rakhine region of Myanmar where the CMEC emerges. India and China both have close ties with the current Myanmar leadership and hence do not support regime change.
New Delhi has been regularly conveying its displeasure to Bangladesh on actions impacting India’s security as also attacks on minorities. The last high-level interactions, held in Bangkok, involved NSAs, EAMs and the PMs. These were utilized to convey warnings to Bangladesh that India could retaliate in case its core concerns are not addressed. While India kept hinting about acting, Bangladesh continued taking it for granted, certain it could play the China card.
India’s first warning shot was stopping free transshipment facility for Bangladesh, granted during COVID, enabling them to export goods to third countries via Indian ports, and airports without payment. India had also provided Bangladeshi goods tariff-free access to Indian markets.
India has multiple cards up its sleeve. Each could impact Bangladesh adversely. After all, it is surrounded by India. New Delhi too wishes to avoid another emerging Pakistan front. Taking the hint should be enough for Dacca. The question is whether it would?