Implications of the Washington lunch The Statesman 24 Jun 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar

https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4025024/Kolkata-The-Statesman/24TH-JUNE-2024#page/9

Implications of the Washington lunch The Statesman 24 Jun 2025

          There are many speculations on why Trump invited Pak army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for a meeting followed by a luncheon. Though planned for an hour, it extended for over two hours. There is a claim that this was arranged by influential members of Pakistan’s diaspora who are close to Trump, and not his government.  

There is also talk that this was Trump’s way of thanking Munir and other Pak leaders who have been profusely expressing their gratitude to him for brokering the Operation Sindoor ceasefire and recommending him for the Nobel Peace Prize, which is his ultimate goal. No other nation’s leaders have been bending so backward to please Trump as Pakistan’s.  

Islamabad, apart from exploiting Trump’s claim of brokering the ceasefire as a means to avoid embarrassment of admitting that it approached India, once its strategic assets had been targeted, played to his ego. Trump also has family business interests in Pakistan.

It is known that a cryptocurrency deal between World Liberty Financial (WLF), a firm backed by the Trump family, and newly formed Pakistan Crypto Council was inked days after Pahalgam. Interestingly, the WLF team, led by the son of Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East and his golfing partner, was received by Asim Munir in Pakistan. It signals growing proximity between the Pak army leadership and Trump’s personal business entities.

Added has been Pakistan’s offer of critical mining concessions to the US on similar lines as China. Two US delegations visited Islamabad in Apr to assess the offer. These delegations met senior members of the government as also the military leadership. Trump, hoping to diversify US imports of critical minerals from China has inked a deal with Ukraine and is now hoping to do the same with Pakistan.

Since these deposits are in Baluchistan, major concern remains of security. China has invested in Baluchistan’s Reko Diq gold mines but has been unable to exploit it due to the ongoing Baloch freedom struggle. The Chinese, frustrated with Pakistan’s handling of the situation, are now directly engaging with different Baloch groups.

The US is also well aware of problems being faced by the Pak army in the region and cannot follow the Chinese model. In case the US has to invest, it needs Pak army backing. Who better than the army chief to endorse the same.         

There are other subjects which too would have been discussed. Primary would have been the Israel-Iran war. Trump mentioned after his meeting, ‘they know Iran very well, better than most, and they are not happy about anything.’ The Pak army, in a guarded statement, mentioned, ‘A detailed exchange of views also took place on prevailing tensions between Iran and Israel, with both leaders emphasising the importance of resolution of the conflict.’ While Pak has not recognized Israel, criticized it on Gaza and Iran, it has not displayed the enmity Iran has towards it.

Naturally the US would prefer air bases in Pakistan as also use of its airspace to target Iran, in case the conflict escalates. Munir would have been briefed on US intent, after all Pak is a neighbour. Pakistan is known to be already providing the US with strategic intelligence on Iran.

Post US strikes on Iran, questions being raised on Munir’s complicity, permitting exploitation of Pak airspace as also being aware of US plans but keeping Iran in the dark. It is also possible that Munir was the strategic diversion exploited by Pak to offset Iran. If this is true, then it is a repeat of what Putin did with Imran when he launched his Ukraine war.

Trump promised weapons and economic incentives to Pakistan in return for support against Iran, an offer a begging nation can never refuse, after all the US controls major financial lending agencies, while Pak is desperate for enhancing ties with the US.

Trump’s intent could also be far deeper, drawing Pakistan away from China. The fact that Munir approached Marc Rubio, the US Secretary of State, to convey a message for a ceasefire to India, rather than China, proves that Rawalpindi trusts Washington more than Beijing.

Any talk on Kashmir or the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) would have been meaningless as PM Modi’s call to Trump and release of the details of discussion to the world by the Indian foreign secretary was done just prior to the Trump-Munir meeting. Added was PM Modi turning down Trump’s invite to visit Washington.

Even if Munir did raise the subject and Trump promised to look into it, he would be aware of Modi’s words, ‘India has never accepted mediation, does not and will never do so.’ For Munir, Kashmir and the IWT are major subjects.

The US CENTCOM commander, Gen Michael E Kurilla, had recently termed Pakistan as a close counter-terrorism ally. This statement and the successful visit of Munir to the US gave most in Pakistan the belief that their ties with the US are on the mend and it would offset India’s intent to isolate Pak.  

However, Pakistani’s are missing the true message being conveyed by Trump. Firstly, Trump has publicly declared that Asim Munir is head of state of Pakistan while the political leadership are mere puppets. Decisions taken by Munir will be implemented. Hence, sitting in a room for two hours gave Trump, the man who believes he can make business deals, enough time to push forth his offers.

Secondly, Munir would now believe that even if he takes over reigns of the government in a coup, it will be acceptable to the US as also provide legitimacy, provided he toes Trump’s lines. Hence, any threat to his power could lead to a coup.   

Thirdly, with no mention of Imran Khan in the meeting, the possibility of the incarcerated leader getting out of jail is unlikely. Fourthly, the US displayed no concern on human rights abuses currently ongoing in Pakistan. Thus, the Pak army can now go all-out against those opposing it in its western provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan.

Fifthly, with Munir being the strategic diversion for Iran’s complacency and surprise as also US exploiting Pak airspace, Islamabad’s relations with Tehran could spiral downwards, benefitting the US.

Finally, with the US ignoring Pakistan’s support to terrorism, the message to India is that it will have to fight its battles on Pak pushing terrorism by itself. This was anyway evident in the way the US reacted to the Pahalgam attack.