India’s ties with Beijing and the Tibetan factor The Statesman 08 Jul 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar

https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4030485/Kolkata-The-Statesman/08-TH-JULY-2025

India’s ties with Beijing and the Tibetan factor The Statesman 08 Jul 2025

          Just short of his ninetieth birthday, the Dalai Lama announced, after years of speculation, that there will be his successor. He mentioned in a pre-recorded video, ‘I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue. The Gaden Phodrang Trust has sole authority to recognize the future reincarnation; no one else has any authority to interfere in this matter.’ The hint was China, which has been insisting that it will be the determiner of the next Dalai Lama. China has been waiting patiently for years for this moment.

The Gaden Phodran is a Swiss non-profit, tax-exempt institution founded by the current Dalai Lama in 2015, based in India but registered in Zurich. Hence, the institution of the Dalai Lama would continue on practices of ‘Tibetan Buddhism’ implying no role of China.

There were immediate reactions from China as also their ambassador in India. The Chinese spokesperson in Beijing mentioned that the next Dalai Lama must be born in ‘mainland China,’ adding that the succession must ‘comply with Chinese laws and regulations, as well as religious rituals and historical conventions.’ She even mentioned adopting the Golden Urn concept where lots were drawn amongst multiple contenders, followed during the Qing dynasty in 1790’s.

          The Chinese ambassador to India, Xu Feihong tweeted, ‘The reincarnation of the Dalai Lama must follow the process that consists of search and identification in China, lot-drawing from the Golden Urn, and central government approval, and comply with religious rituals and historical conventions as well as Chinese laws and regulations.’

          Clearly, the Chinese are rattled as their control over Tibet, despite decades of crackdowns and pushing an anti-Dalai Lama narrative is far from successful. There are reports in western media of Tibetan children, many as young as four, being forcibly taken to Chinese boarding schools, taught Mandarin and indoctrinated into communism. There are inputs of them being punished for wearing Buddhist blessing cords or speaking in Tibetan.

The Chinese, fearing such an announcement from the Dalai Lama, had in 2007 enacted its State Religious Affairs Order, which gave it jurisdiction over all reincarnations of Tibetan Buddhist Lamas. The US countered it with its Tibetan Policy and Support Act in 2020, reaffirming power to appoint a Dalai Lama, to the Tibetan government in exile.

To make it worse for Beijing, the Dalai Lama, in a memoir published in March this year, had specifically mentioned that he would be re-born in the free world ‘outside China.’ This meant that anyone selected by China, as a possible successor, would be ignored and considered an impersonator.

This will make Chinese attempts to integrate Tibetans into their mainstream, by nominating their own successor, more difficult. The Dalai Lama had for years been trying to negotiate with the Chinese for autonomy for Tibet, under Chinese rule, but they ignored him. Now Beijing would realize that they may have been hasty.

For Tibetans, including those in Tibet, the Dalai Lama represents their identity and religious freedom. His official rejection of China’s role implies that no matter who Beijing nominates, he will be rejected. The Chinese nominated Panchen Lama is ignored even by local Tibetans, who consider him an impersonator.

A scenario of two Dalai Lama’s, one nominated by China and one by Tibetans, could emerge. The one selected by China would only be acceptable to Beijing, rejected by the world. For the west, the challenge would be countering Chinese pressure while adhering to their policies of religious freedom and human rights.

The concern is that in a world with fast changing geopolitical dynamics and trade imbalances with China, how many nations would be willing to confront Beijing on a subject like the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, most nations have few Tibetan residents. A lot would depend on how US relations with China exist at that time and whether Washington will be willing to stand its ground.     

India is home to the Tibetan government in exile and over 100,000 Tibetans. The Dalai Lama has been a guest of the country since his escape from Tibet in 1959. India in 1954 recognized Tibet as a part of China and restricted political activities of the Dalai Lama.  

Small changes began emerging post 2014. In 2014, the head of the Tibetan government-in-exile, Lobsang Sangay, attended PM Modi’s swearing in. In 2016, the Dalai Lama visited the Rashtrapati Bhawan and shared the stage with the President and in early 2017, he was permitted to visit Arunachal. Recently central ministers have been attending the Dalai Lama’s birthday celebrations.

Union Minister for Minority Affairs Kiren Rijiju, a Buddhist himself, mentioned on the succession, ‘All those who follow the Dalai Lama feel that the incarnation is to be decided by the established convention and as per the wish of the Dalai Lama himself. Nobody else has the right to decide it except him and the conventions in place.’ This is the sentiment of most Indians.

The Indian government, playing safe for now, in the process of mending ties with China, as also with Jaishankar’s scheduled visit to Beijing, distanced itself from Rijiju’s statement. The government press release mentioned, ‘The Government of India does not take any position or speak on matters concerning beliefs and practices of faith and religion.’ China has been insisting India stays neutral in the process.

The reality is that the next Dalai Lama, no matter where he is born, would be housed in India as the seat of the Tibetan government in exile is here. At that stage Indian approval will be tacit, even if it remains silent. In case ties with China slide down, New Delhi’s support may be more vocal. Not supporting the Gaden Phodran nominated successor will impact India’s soft power as also its global standing. The Dalai Lama succession is a wild card in India’s hand.   

China nominating its own Dalai Lama could enhance unrest amongst Tibetans under Chinese control. Simultaneously, China’s claims of having assimilated Tibet would be farfetched, something China will be desperate to avoid. With maximum Tibetans in India, it will be watching how India reacts.  

Any uprising in Tibet based on Chinese nomination of the Dalai Lama would be blamed on India and their government in exile. This could enhance tensions as Tibet is their redline. Beijing has always felt threatened by the influence the Dalai Lama carries in Tibet. It will be more concerned when the succession issue grabs media attention.