South Asian protests follow a common trajectory The Statesman 16 Sep 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar

https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4057212/Kolkata-The-Statesman/16TH-SEP-2025#page/9/2

South Asian protests follow a common trajectory The Statesman 16 Sep 2025

          The Gen Z uprising in Nepal led to the overthrow of the Oli regime in just two days. In its wake it left over 30 dead and hundreds injured. The houses of many politicians were torched while some senior members of the government, manhandled. Democratic institutions, including the parliament, were burnt in a display of frustration and anger.

An interim government has been formed based on negotiations between the army, youth leaders who led the protests, and the President. Ex Chief Justice, Sushila Karki, has been appointed as the leader of the interim government and tasked to hold fresh elections in March next year alongside changes in the constitution. She is reputed to be honest with zero tolerance for corruption. She has jailed a serving minister and removed bureaucrats from office on corruption grounds, during her tenure in the judiciary. 

          In the case of both, Bangladesh and Nepal, the head of government is a non-political entity, a household name and have been allocated similar tasks, amending the constitution and conducting elections. How much will they succeed is to be seen. Elections have been announced in Bangladesh, but whether they will be held on time is unknown. There are no inputs on what changes are being brought about in the constitution by Mohamad Yunus, apart from banning Sheikh Hasina’s Awami league and lifting the ban on the Jamaat-e-Islami.

It should be noted that in both cases the heads of the interim government lack political experience, are dependent on the army for their power, as also under pressure from student groups which led the agitation. It has been over a year in Bangladesh and nothing much has changed, rather the country has slid downhill. How will Nepal fan out and how much pressure would students maintain over the interim government is to be seen.

          Causes of anger amongst the population was largely similar. In Bangladesh, there was growing discontentment against the government on corruption, a failing economy, reservations, stifling of dissent as also silencing of media and government critics. In university campuses, the banning of Jamaat-e-Islami’s student wing, Shibir, while giving a free hand to the Bangladesh Chhatra League, the student wing of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, added to anger.

Peaceful protests began in July and security forces firing led to them becoming violent. There was no attempt at dialogue to resolve demands. Lack of communication added to anger.

          In Nepal, hashtags like #PoliticiansNepoBabyNepal, #NepoKids, and #NepoBaby have been trending on social media for some time, resulting in rising discontent amongst the youth. Comments under them compared life of privileged family members of politicians to those of the common man. The government failed to counter it or even take note of rising discontent, almost on similar lines as Bangladesh.

In Sri Lanka, protests were largely on corruption and economic grounds and were peaceful. Pro-government supporters attacked demonstrators with security forces joining in employing tear gas and water cannons leaving hundreds injured. Members of the ruling party were accused of shooting protestors resulting in violence across the country forcing the government to resign. 

Initial protests in all cases were responded to by application of brutal force, resulting in casualties, adding fuel to fire. By the time governments realized their mistakes and sought dialogue, it was too late. Anger flooded the streets forcing governments to resign. All three governments believed they had the backing of the public, which was contrary to reality.

          In both, Bangladesh and Nepal, there are questions on whether casualties were caused only by security agencies firing or were initial protests infiltrated by outsiders who opened fire from within. In both countries, there are visuals of armed individuals amongst the agitators. The true picture would never be known.  

What was common in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal is anger of the youth against corruption by those in power. For today’s youth, corruption is unacceptable.

          In Bangladesh Hasina’s Awami League has been banned, opening doors for the emergence of a government with no link to her. This was more to meet demands of those who led the protests as also personal vendetta of Yunus. Whether current political parties in Nepal too would be banned, is to be seen.

However, as long as leaders of previous overthrown governments remain within the country, as in the case of Nepal, they will continue to wield power. In Sri Lanka, the Rajapaksa family, deposed in the Apr 2022, returned from self-imposed exile after five months, plans a political comeback. Will it happen in Nepal too is a question mark. 

In Sri Lanka the Rajapaksa brothers have been found responsible for triggering the financial crisis. In Bangladesh corruption charges have been framed against members of the Hasina dispensation, including her. Nepal is likely to follow suit as the interim PM has been a crusader against corruption. In such a case the current political dispensation could be temporarily sidelined.

          Another common factor which surfaced was the growing power of the army. It was army chiefs in all three countries which forced the political leadership to resign. Not only was the army called in to quell protests and safeguard national assets, but was also involved in working out possible future governance. They thus remain power brokers and would henceforth play a major role in the nation.    

          What emerges from the three recent upheavals in the sub- continent is the increasing the role of youth wings of political parties. They could be a source for feedback as also support views of their affiliated political party. In case these youth wings are strong, they could assist in stemming protests.

Another factor is overconfidence amongst national leaders who believed that they were above the law and untouchable due to their power. What was also missed was the fact that it takes time for anger amongst the youth to build. This was visible on social media platforms which needed to be closely monitored, but was ignored.

Maturity in handling protests is another attribute to containing them. India faced a collection of protests, each of which had the potential to spread, but were contained by the government without use of force, including talks and withdrawing controversial legislations. The army was neither involved nor were police authorized to open fire resulting in casualties, which could be exploited to expand protests. This was missing in the sub-continent protests.