Nepal in a crisis The Excelsior 17 Sep 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar

https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/nepal-in-a-crisis/

Nepal in a crisis The Excelsior 17 Sep 2025

          The Gen Z protests in Nepal, which left over 30 dead, hundreds injured also resulted in political upheaval, with the government resigning and the army taking control of security of the state. Led by youth, supported by members of the opposition as also youth friendly leaders like Sudan Gurung, President of Hami Nepal, and the Mayor of Katmandu, Balendra Shah or Balen Shah, the protestors took two days to bring the government to its knees.

There were reports of torching of houses of political leaders as also of their manhandling. Unlike Bangladesh, former PMs of Nepal remain in the country, protected by the army. Whether they would subsequently seek shelter elsewhere is to be seen.

          While the immediate trigger behind the protests is termed as the ban on 26 social media apps, the process of turning minds of the youth against the current political dispensation had been ongoing for some time. Hashtags like #PoliticiansNepoBabyNepal, #NepoKids, and #NepoBaby have been trending on social media for some time. This hashtag has been borrowed from Hollywood’s famed ‘nepo baby,’ which refers to the nepotistic practice of children of celebrities due to familial connections.  

In Nepal the hashtag compares lifestyle of children of political leaders as against those of common Nepalese, who struggle to survive. It enhanced anger amongst the youth. A comment on social media stated, ‘leaders’ children return from abroad with Gucci bags, the people’s children in coffins.’ The messaging was poverty and unemployment has resulted in many Nepalese joining conflict zones including the Russo-Ukraine conflict.  

Who was behind the #Nepobaby hashtag is unknown, but it slowly changed views of the Gen Z against the current bunch of politicians, all of whom face corruption charges but ensure that none is convicted. The intent of the campaign was to generate hate and demand a change in national leadership and it worked.

All that was needed was a spark. This was provided by banning of social media apps. The Nepalese government lifted the ban after the first day of protests, but it was too late. This was similar to Bangladesh, where protests continued despite Sheikh Hasina and the supreme court having scrapped reservations for freedom fighters.

Youth protests, once ignited, are difficult to roll back, fuelled by casualties suffered due to security forces actions. While there would be some casualties as a result of firing by security forces protecting government institutions, the possibility of protests being infiltrated by anti-national elements who fire from within adding to casualties, further instigating the violence, is another contributing factor. Inputs on this will always remain sketchy. It was seen in both, Bangladesh and Nepal, that many protestors carried weapons.   

In recent years Nepal PM’s have either been pro-China as KP Sharma Oli or pro-India as Sher Bahadur Deuba. However, they have been compelled to balance their ties between both powerful neighbours due to the unique position of Nepal. While Deuba sought to ignore irritants between India and Nepal, Oli attempted to add fuel to fire on small irritants like Lipulekh. Nepal has seen 14 governments, almost all coalition, in the past 17 years adding to instability. Political instability and differing leanings impact investment and growth.

Corruption charges against most senior politicians in Nepal failed to materialize because they joined hands by aligning political parties. This, alongside lack of employment, forced youth to seek opportunities abroad, especially in trouble spots.

Thousands of Nepalese were recruited by global security companies as security guards to protect embassies and compounds in Afghanistan. Many remained stuck after NATO and US withdrawal. Their fate remains unknown. There are also reports that Russia has recruited over 15,000 Nepalese to fight on their side. Numbers dead or those who returned remain sketchy.

Nepal followed the familiar tune of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, where protests led by students resulted in change of governments. The authorities were unable to control the uprisings forcing leaders to resign. Such uprisings require coordination and planning. In the case of Nepal, hints are towards was Sudan Gurung, who in his Instagram account gave routes to be followed and school uniforms to be worn, displaying peaceful protests. Which organizations fund Sudan Gurung’s Hami Nepal and with what intent would emerge with time. This may indicate whether there were vested interests behind the protests.    

Protestors always seek fresh leaders’ capable of meeting their aspirations as also desire changes in the constitution for future governance. The leader they seek invariably are non-political and well-known. In Bangladesh it was their Nobel Laureate, Mohamad Yunus, known for establishing the Grameen Bank. Yunus has thus far not been successful but once nominated there is little choice.

In Nepal, the youth, president and the army took the decision. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was appointed as head of an interim government. Elections have been scheduled for March 2026 alongside amendments in the constitutions. Whether time would be adhered to remains unknown. The fact is that the army would continue to play a balancing role as in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

As expected, foreign hands, including India, in this occasion, are primary targets for causing the unrest. The US Millennium Challenge Corporation provides a USD 500 million grant for development of infrastructure in Nepal and has far reaching influence. There are other US organizations involved with funding and sponsoring local NGOs. Indian aid to Nepal focusses on infrastructure, education, health and cultural projects. Many in Nepal, including deposed PM Oli, believe India to be behind the current round of protests.   

While Sri Lanka has stabilized, largely with loans from global bodies and support from India, Bangladesh remains in limbo. Where will Nepal head is to be seen. The fact remains, that the Indian government will continue providing support and backing. India would not want Nepal to move the Bangladesh way. Simultaneously, India will not interfere in Nepal’s internal matters. India and China have thus far avoided commenting on the changing scenario in Nepal.

Finally, the Indo-Nepal border needs to be secured. The SSB (Sashastra Seema Bal), which is responsible for security along the open border needs to be beefed up with other central forces, including the BSF. This is the time when escaped convicts, undesirables as also Pak terrorists would attempt to cross. Additional precautions must be taken.