Trump’s Pakistan tilts highlights limits of India’s trust in the US First Post 14 Oct 2025
https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/trump-pakistan-tilt-india-us-trust-risks-13942021.html
Trump’s Pakistan tilts highlights limits of India’s trust in the US First Post 14 Oct 2025
Pakistan’s sudden found bonhomie with the US has given their hybrid government a feeling that their relations with the US, frozen for almost a decade, are on the heal and that they can depend on Washington for support, especially during a conflict with India. Failed Marshal Asim Munir’s lunch at the White House, special invitee for the farewell ceremony of the commander of the US Central Command and subsequently accompanying Shehbaz Sharief to the Oval Office are events which grabbed media headlines in Pak.
Two high-level interactions in the White House at close interval are something out of the ordinary. Pakistan too is playing to Trump’s ego at every stage, whether it be Gaza, Nobel peace award or offering rare earths. No wonder the Pak leadership believes it is being favoured. Simultaneously, India-US relations are at an ebb.
Trump placing amongst the lowest tariff rate of 19% on Pakistan as compared to 50% (including sanctions for Russian oil) on India displays his favour for a nation treated as a pariah by him in his first term. It was Trump who in 2017, had stopped military aid worth USD 2 Billion annually to Pak.
Even militarily Pakistan has benefitted. It was announced that it would receive AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) from the US. Subsequently it was clarified that the announcement is only upgrades to the software not supply of new weapon systems.
The US has designated the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) as a terrorist organization as also recommenced its counter-terrorism dialogue with them. This will enable Pakistan to exploit US support against the BLA, especially since the rare earth contract is inked and the BLA has threatened against it. Munir had requested Trump to recommence military training and exchange program, which may also be granted.
For the US, re-discovery of Islamabad as a trusted ally, cannot be without reason. Businessman Trump never gives free lunches. Apart from the crypto deal signed on 26th Apr between Trump’s family-controlled World Liberty Financial and Pakistan’s Crypto Council, there is also the aspect of Trump being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize which led to a luncheon meeting between Asim Munir and Trump.
The US exploited Pak into backing the Gaza peace plan, despite it being modified. While Pak deputy foreign minister criticized the plan, claiming it was the not the same as presented by Muslim nations, Shehbaz Sharief supported it. Pakistan will also be compelled to deploy peacekeepers under command of Blair and Trump in Gaza. If Pakistan deploys, Arab nations may also follow suit. Thus far only Indonesia has committed.
The US is also engaged in repairing Pakistan’s damaged air bases and aircraft hit by Indian strikes in Operation Sindoor. The Chinese have been kept away as repairs include US F16s and C130s hit by India. Reports mention that Pakistan has released USD 400-470 million for these repairs, which would be paid to US contractors. As an alternative to avoiding higher tariffs Pakistan accepted to import US oil. The first shipment of one million barrels of oil is expected to reach Pakistan this month.
Pakistan is also doing its part to keep Trump happy. It despatched a consignment of rare earth minerals to the US. As per reports, US company, US Strategic Metals which inked a MoU with Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organization (a military run enterprise) last month was involved in the despatch. Evidently, the Pak army is gaining from the deal, not the government.
If the US is able to continue to extract these minerals it will enable it to overcome the stranglehold placed on it by China. Pakistan is reported to possess USD 6 Trillion worth of rare earth deposits in Baluchistan. How will this materialize, when the Chinese have failed, due to the unrest in the region, is to be seen. If unrest increases, Pakistan will blame India, Iran and Afghanistan for being behind it, hoping for the US to enhance pressure.
Simultaneously, Pakistan has offered US the option of building and running a port in the town of Pasni in Baluchistan. It is estimated that the cost of establishing the port is USD 1.2 Billion and the funding would involve both Pakistan and US backed finance. The port is 70 miles from Chinese built Gwadar and 100 miles from the Pak-Iran border. Thus far there has been no response from the US. If built and utilized, it will have strategic implications in the long term.
Pakistan needs funding from US backed global institutions as also US support, despite its dependence on China. Recently the IMF has sought clarifications on USD 11 Billion financial irregularities. The Pak government would seek to brush this under the carpet and would need Washington’s backing.
If Trump is giving Pakistan special attention, then it must have other reasons too. Pakistan borders Iran and its ties with the Middle East benefit US strategy. Monitoring Iran’s actions is better from Pakistan, while Pakistan’s recent security pact with Saudi Arabia implies deployment of Pak troops in case Yemen challenges Riyadh, avoiding use of American forces.
It could also include sending a message to India as also drawing Pak away from China. As far as India is concerned, not adhering to US demands of stopping procurement of Russian oil, snapping ties with it, BRICS and SCO while accepting a trade deal on US terms has led to deterioration in ties. Added is India’s refusal to acknowledge Trump’s role in stopping the Indo-Pak conflict. India’s reproachment with China implies loss of an anti-China ally.
However, India is a hard nut to crack. It is not a nation which will bend backwards to please Trump as Pakistan is doing. Its economic might, large market and growing military power give it the ability to follow its strategic autonomy. A recent IMF forecasts mentions India will be the world’s fastest-growing major economy with a projected 6.4% growth for 2025 – 2026, despite tariffs from Trump.
Ultimately, the US will be the loser. If it has to push China on trade and other concessions it needs a strong anti-China coalition in the Indo-pacific. Without India, the coalition can never be strong. India is aware and is playing a game of patience.
What a change in Indo-US relations. PM Modi visited Washington in Feb and was offered F35s and much more as also praised. A few months down the line and it is Pakistan which is being favoured. For India, the message is clear, the US cannot be depended upon.
It can change gears and arm your enemy if you refuse to toe their line and turn down their bidding. It has done so with many of its allies. Slowly, India will move away from the US, even in defence deals, despite US promises to the contrary. The relationship nurtured over decades are being damaged by one individual for personal interests.
The only silver lining is that Trump is neither permanent nor will his legacy continue. However, for India, relying on the US as a preferred ally is risky and it must not place majority of its eggs in the US basket.