Many complications in ties with America The Statesman 28 Oct 2025

https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4072881/Kolkata-The-Statesman/28TH-OCTOBER-2025#page/9/2

Many complications in ties with America The Statesman 28 Oct 2025

          It is believed that PM Modi decided to address the ASEAN summit in Malaysia in virtual mode because he did not want a meeting with Trump prior to the trade deal being finalized. It is also true that he did not attend the signing ceremony of the Gaza peace accord in Egypt, despite being invited by both, US and Egypt, as also the UNGA session in New York in Sept this year to avoid meeting Trump and exposing himself to Trump’s theatrics. In earlier years, regular meetings with US Presidents would be welcomed as relations were glowing.

The change is because Trump is mercurial and unreliable. His insistence on fake claims, inventing conversations and making off-the-cuff remarks before the media, embarrassing his hosts and guests alike, have made leaders avoid interacting with him, unless essential. This is also the reason why India has thus far avoided announcing any date for the QUAD leaders’ summit.

Trump’s unreliability in recent days has been displayed by his stopping trade negotiations as also imposing additional 10% tariffs on Canada over an advertisement and imposing sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producing companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, while simultaneously seeking talks with Putin.

No self-respecting nation, including Canada and Russia, will bend to such threats but seek alternate means or allies. Hence, India invited Canadian PM, Mark Carney, to visit early next year, possibly to commence trade talks. Putin would be visiting New Delhi in December.

In case of India, Trump’s repeated claim of having stopped Operation Sindoor, seeking the Nobel Peace Prize, has been publicly rebuffed by New Delhi. Added has been high tariffs and sanctions for procuring Russian oil, while claiming that PM Modi has promised to reduce Russian oil procurements by the end of the year. His sanctioning of Russian oil companies impacting Indian procurements is his latest pressure on India to accede to US demands in the ongoing trade negotiations and assuage his bruised ego on his Operation Sindoor claim. For the US, India is a market it cannot lose. All this while mentioning PM Modi is a close friend.

In 2019, India adhered to US demands and stopped procuring Iranian oil. This year Reliance stopped purchasing Venezuelan oil due to tariffs. If Russian oil is also stopped, oil prices would rise, impacting the Indian economy. An alternative, avoiding costly US oil, would have to be found. This time, continuing with Russian oil may be difficult as the US has coordinated its sanctions with European nations.

Aware of US pressures and intimidating tactics, India’s commerce and industry minister, Piyush Goyal, stated during his recent visit to Berlin, ‘We are talking to the US, but we do not do deals in a hurry and we do not do deals with deadlines or with a gun to our head.’ He added, ‘Trade deals are for a longer duration. They are not only about tariffs or access to goods and services; they are also about trust and relationships.’

The words ‘trust and relationships’ are intended to send a message that India will not bend on its red lines, despite pressures. While talks are on and possibly positive, no firm date for closure of the same has been announced.

By referring to US pressures, Goyal meant anti-India comments by members of Trump’s trade negotiating team as also imposition of additional tariffs and sanctions. As talks have progressed, comments have reduced. While India has expanded its oil procurement options, it has not stopped obtaining Russian oil. These will be impacted as Rosneft has a 49% share in Gujarat based Nyara energy. How will India bypass sanctions is to be seen.   

Simultaneously, India has not retaliated to US tariffs and sanctions aggressively like China. It has offset its exports to the US by seeking new markets, inking trade deals and modifying its internal taxation policies, as the Indian economy remains largely internal market driven. India has the advantage of a large market fuelled by its demography. Hence, a mutually acceptable trade deal is beneficial to both. At the same time India has not sought a waiver on procuring Russian oil as Germany has done from the UK.

India’s ability to adjust has resulted in it being considered the world’s fastest growing economy. As per IMF, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.6% based on it offsetting effects of increased US tariffs. In Purchasing Power Parity terms, India’s economy is far higher.

Internally, accepting US sanctions on Russian oil companies and stopping procurement of their oil will have political ramifications as it would imply that the government has bowed to US pressures. Similar would be the impact in case of a Trump-Modi meet and off-the-cuff remarks by Trump on Operation Sindoor or Indo-Russian ties. Indo-US ties, nurtured for decades are now at an ebb.

Another reason for India being targeted is that Trump’s primary interest has shifted towards trade imbalances and domestic US policies, rather than the Indo-Pacific. This implies pressure on China is no longer Trump’s major interest and hence the importance of India to the US has dropped. Chinese stoppages of export of rare earth minerals and high tariffs is equally hurting the US economy and is unsustainable in the long term, thus forcing it to offer concessions to Beijing.

Delegation level talks between the US and China, on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit appear to have succeeded. In case the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for Thursday is successful, then India would likely be left in the cold. The QUAD appears to be the last of Trump’s interests. India therefore would need to cater for its own security requirements.

An added cause for Trump singling out India, despite other nations continuing to procure similar or higher levels of Russian oil or gas, is India’s strategic autonomy. The US is attempting to force India to select sides, thereby ditching Russia, which India is unwilling to do. India has reduced its dependence on Russian military equipment as also its oil, but will not sacrifice its ties for the US.

While defence and technological cooperation continue with the US, diplomatic and trade ties face the brunt. India will attempt to navigate the current turmoil in ties in steps, commencing with trade and then moving forward. India is patient and watchful. Any hurried action can have internal political ramifications, which the current dispensation will avoid.