Isolation must force India to prepare herself better The Statesman 11 Nov 2025
https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4078170/Kolkata-The-Statesman/11TH-NOV-2025#page/9/2
Isolation must force India to prepare herself better The Statesman 11 Nov 2025
There has been a vast change in Trump’s first and second tenures in his approach to global issues. In his first tenure Trump termed China and Russia as his strategic rivals. His 2017 National Security Strategy mentioned, ‘China and Russia challenge American power, influence and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity.’ He pushed for enhanced role of the QUAD, considering India as essential for containing China.
Trump’s then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson mentioned, ‘We need to collaborate with India to ensure that the Indo-Pacific is increasingly a place of peace, stability, and growing prosperity – so that it does not become a region of disorder, conflict and predatory economics.’ This was expected to continue in Trump’s second term.
Modi met Trump at the White House soon after he assumed office and the visit was claimed to be a success. The US government readout of the meeting mentioned, ‘The leaders reaffirmed that a close partnership between the US and India is central to a free, open, peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.’ It added, ‘The US appreciates India’s role as a developmental, humanitarian assistance and net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region.’ Since then, a lot has changed.
Trump’s emphasis has shifted towards trade deficits and the US mainland. His desperation for a Nobel peace award and his exalted ego have impacted his assessment. US allies have also not been spared from his trade battles with them being considered trade adversaries. Talks are on hold with Canada while India and Europe as also his Asian allies face high tariffs, unless they meet Trump’s terms and conditions. Highest tariffs presently are on India and Brazil at 50%.
Trade and diplomatic ties with India began deteriorating post Operation Sindoor when Trump announced that he stopped the conflict while India rebutted his claims. Trade deficits with India as also its preferring Russian oil to US shale oil, led to increased tariffs and punitive sanctions. Trade talks are ongoing, moving at their own pace, with India refusing to give in on its redline of agriculture and dairy products. PM Modi has avoided meeting Trump to prevent a contentious discussion on Operation Sindoor and trade discussions.
Adding to Indian concerns was Trump’s re-set of ties with China. He described his short meeting with Xi at the airport in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the APEC summit as ‘amazing’ terming it as ‘12 out of 10.’ For Trump, losing Chinese markets for its agricultural products, lifting restrictions imposed on imports of rare earth minerals and curbing movement of opioid fentanyl into America were priorities. To get China to accept his demands he reduced tariffs.
Trump also mentioned that procurement of Russian oil, the very reason for additional sanctions on India and a cause of funding of the Russian war economy, was not discussed with Xi. He added that neither was Taiwan raised, though he mentioned that China promised not to occupy it by force during his tenure.
Trump termed the meeting as that of the ‘G2,’ implying the world’s top two economies. This conveyed a reset in ties. Many believe Trump surrendered to Xi to safeguard US interests, a change from his earlier confrontation approach. A free, open Indo-Pacific has been forgotten and so has the QUAD.
Where does this leave India? India has been balancing its ties with China, Russia and the US. Sanctions on Russian oil producers has impacted India’s procurement of Russian oil, though relations appear normal, with Putin scheduled to visit next month. With China, while talks are in progress and there has been de-escalation along the LAC, de-induction is nowhere on the cards. While India-US defence ties continue as hither-to-fore, including the recent inking of the ten-year defence cooperation agreement, relations are at an ebb. The US is no longer the dependable partner it once was.
PM Modi, who would earlier not miss an opportunity to meet the US president, is now avoiding doing so. He skipped the Gaza summit in Egypt as also addressed the ASEAN summit in Malaysia online, largely with this intent. Both sides continue to display normalcy in ties but that appears to be a put-on. Trump speaking to PM Modi on Diwali as also his birthday, terming him as a friend, while in the same sentence claiming he stopped Operation Sindoor, and praising Pak leaders, appears to signal that the US treats both nations as equal, while pressurizing India to accept US trade terms.
The QUAD leaders’ summit in India this year is unlikely. This is in contrast to the US readout of the Modi-Trump meeting of Feb this year, which mentioned ‘Prime Minister Modi looks forward to hosting President Trump in New Delhi for the Quad leaders’ Summit.’
India will now have to handle its security concerns on its own, not that it did not do so earlier, but is also unlikely to gain US support. With China dominating relations with Russia, India will be far more alone. Further, it is possible that the US and China, terming themselves as the G2, may divide regions as specific ‘spheres of influence,’ where evidently Asia would be China’s domain and it would seek to ensure that India does not remain a challenger.
The importance for India to enhance its domestic defence production cannot be understated. Simultaneously, India must enhance military capabilities to meet its security challenges, despite thawing of ties with China. Deterrence is essential. A crucial step has been the induction of the 800 Km range BrahMos missile as also ongoing restructuring of its army. It must also enhance defence ties with other allies including European and Israel.
Economically India would face hurdles. In the APEC summit Xi mentioned, ‘We must have the courage to remove barriers, keep global industrial and supply chains stable and unimpeded.’ This implied that China would resist shifting of supply chains from it as it would continue to provide it leverage. Will the China Plus 1 strategy remain in place, especially as the US reduces tariffs on China and seeks to re-set ties is unknown.
A silver lining is that US-China relations have many stumbling blocks, trade deficits, Chinese support to its industry enabling lower costs, competition over technology dominance and conflicts in the South China Sea, being some. India has to wait and watch as any of these could reverse their relationship.