How Gaza trap will make Munir realize the cost of American lunch First Post 23 Dec 2025

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/how-gaza-trap-will-make-munir-realise-the-cost-of-american-lunch-13962332.html

How Gaza trap will make Munir realize the cost of American lunch First Post 23 Dec 2025

          Reports mention that Pakistan’s de-facto head of state, constitutionally protected failed marshal Asim Munir, is expected to visit the US in Jan to discuss deployment of his troops in Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force (ISF) under Trump’s Gaza peace plan. Pakistan’s foreign affairs ministry stated that it had no inputs on the visit as also no decision has yet been taken on the deployment. US Secretary of State Marc Rubio, in a press conference last weekend mentioned, ‘We’re very grateful to Pakistan for their offer to be a part of it (ISF), or at least consider being a part of it.’

The reality is that US pressure on Pak to deploy its troops has been increasing. The grant of USD 686 million to modernize and sustain Pakistan’s F-16 fleet as also their Export-Import Bank USD 1.25 billion financing for the Reko Dik copper-gold mine project in Baluchistan alongside continuing ongoing loan from the IMF is based on their accepting to deploy in Gaza.

Media inputs mention Pakistan is expected to contribute 3500 soldiers, which is about an Infantry Brigade, though they are being pushed to dispatch one division which is about three times the number. Details of their role remain unclear but based on demands from Israel, it would involve disarming Hamas, which could lead to clashes with them. Further, Gaza is unlikely to be a short-term deployment.

          For Trump, the peace plan is key for his nomination for the Nobel award and there is no way nations pressured to participate can back away. Pakistan, the only Muslim nuclear power, is expected to take the lead. Arab states would only contribute in name, with majority being provided by Pakistan and Indonesia. The US-Pak relationship, booming currently, depends on them providing requisite forces for the mission.

          For Munir personally, the decision to get involved is riddled with contradictions. For seventy years Pakistan has been projecting Israel as an enemy which has subdued the Palestinians and denied them a homeland. It refuses to recognize it. There is anger against Israel across Pakistan. In Oct, the TLP (Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan), a far-right Islamist party, led by its firebrand leader, Saad Hussain Rizvi, protested against Israel. These were brutally crushed with dozens killed, the organization banned, Saad Rizvi in hiding, while his deputy sentenced to 35 years.

There is only a vague mention of an independent Palestinian state in Trump’s plan, which Israel has sworn not to permit. It is known that Pakistan would be forced to implement Israel’s desired end state in Gaza, disarming of Hamas, without the involvement of the Israeli army.

Protests within Pakistan against Munir and the Pak army for selling their souls to Israel will commence as soon as the deployment materializes and would be exploited by Imran Khan’s PTI. TLP protests may also re-surface. Even within the military there are hardliners. Expecting them to implement Israel’s end state is difficult. In a radicalized Pakistan, choosing troops for this task will not be easy.

This could have been offset if troops deployed would have served under the UN flag and been financially well compensated. However, this being Trump’s masterpiece, pushed through the UNSC, but not a UN mandated force, payment may be low. This will add to discomfort for troops deployed.  

Pakistan has additional troops deployed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) battling the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan), against which it launched Operation Sarbakaf in end July, alongside increased forces in Baluchistan. The operation is ongoing with limited gains. It also cannot reduce forces deployed against India along the LoC.

Pakistan also has two divisions termed as Special Security Divisions South and North to protect ‘foreign commercial interests’ implying the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor). The Chinese are being regularly targeted and this has angered Beijing. While Munir courts closer ties with Washington, President Zardari seeks enhanced ties with Beijing.

Reduction of troops from either of these two forces could result in increased targeting of the CPEC as also Chinese workers, distancing Beijing. Pakistan is drowned in Chinese debt as also banks on them militarily and hence cannot anger them. Therefore, protecting the Chinese and the CPEC will remain a priority.

To spare troops for employment in Gaza, Pakistan would need to reduce deployment somewhere. This is a difficult decision to make. Raising additional forces for Gaza will not be financially viable. 

Munir will insist Trump guarantee to reign in India in case of a terrorist strike over which India is bound to retaliate. Any future retaliation by India will be unlike Operation Sindoor 1.0, when Pakistan was able to play its narrative, sidelining its losses. This time objectives will be such that Munir has no opportunity to play his narrative.  

The question is whether New Delhi will listen to Trump’s pleadings, especially as Indo-US ties are at an ebb. Unlikely, as it would have a major political impact within, especially as elections are always ongoing. India too could have its demands, which Munir may find difficult. Conversely, Trump could insist that Pakistan reign in its terrorist groups, which again will bounce back for Munir. 

Afghanistan too has not recognized Israel. Kabul has announced that it seeks ties with all nations, less Israel. Any Pak deployment in Gaza, involving disarming of Hamas, will anger them and through them, the TTP, which has made major inroads into KP. Any reduction of troops in the region could open doors for the TTP’s expansion. The same would be the scenario in Baluchistan. Any strikes across the border into Afghanistan could add to pressures as the Taliban would be further emboldened.

A similar sentiment exists in Iran, which is Israel’s vowed enemy and backer of Hamas. By deploying in Gaza, Pakistan would be angering Iran. This implies that Pakistan would be surrounded by adversaries on all sides.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli PM, is scheduled to visit India in Jan. This would be around the time Trump would commence pushing for deployment of forces in Gaza. The peace plan would be discussed between PMs Modi and Netanyahu. New Delhi’s ties with Tel Aviv are close. Indirectly, India would have a role to play in Gaza, without committing troops.

Munir is in a bind. Turning down Trump’s demand for deployment in Gaza would ruin the progress he has made in mending ties as also ongoing aid; while accepting it would add to pressures within. Munir has discussed the subject with nation’s likely to participate and is aware that others would only contribute in case Pakistan takes the lead and deploys maximum forces. Hence, Trump would not let Pakistan get away.

Munir is aware that he is constitutionally protected from any legal action. While this may be of benefit, hardliners within the army would see his actions as a sell-out to Israel, resulting in demands for his resignation. Shehbaz has played safe by washing his hands of the deployment leaving it to Munir to take the decision.

The infamous Pak failed marshal now faces his sternest test which is convincing his people, including his own army, that he is not selling the country to Israel but saving Gazans. Can this happen in a radicalized state taught to hate Israel for 70 years while supporting Hamas is to be seen.