An attack on Iran will have consequences The Statesman 20 Jan 2026

https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4108108/Kolkata-The-Statesman/20th-january-2026#page/9/2

An attack on Iran will have consequences The Statesman 20 Jan 2026

          The current Iranian regime is facing its strongest test with ongoing protests since its ascendency to power in 1979. Protests have occurred regularly in Iran. 2009 was the Green Movement, 2019 the civil unrest, 2022-23, uprising on civil liberties, following the death of female activist, Mahsa Amini in police custody, for violating rules on wearing the Hijab. Each protest was crushed brutally with over 500 killed in 2022-23.

The cause of current protests was collapse of the Rial, leading to food inflation crossing 70% and rising unemployment. Sanctions on oil exports led to a drop in Iran’s economy and depleted its foreign exchange reserves. An added impact on the economy was the 12-day war with Israel and the US, resulting in increased taxes.

No accurate figures on casualties are available however it is believed that over 5000 have been killed and thousands more injured. The son of the ex-Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, based in exile in the US, has been urging protestors to take over cities and overthrow the current regime. He mentions that he wants to move Iran towards democracy.

There is also no doubt that current protests are being fuelled by the US and Israel. For Trump, the current regime is an anathema. His dislike has never been hidden. Apart from the fact that the Iranian regime has been supporting terrorist groups against Israel to include Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi’s as also many in Iraq, alongside the Assad regime in Syria, is that it was in Iran where the US was humiliated. Their Operation Eagle Claw, launched to rescue 53 embassy staff held hostage in Apr 1980, was an abject failure and remains a blot on US special forces.

As protests increased, Trump posted a message on his Truth Social network mentioning, ‘Iranian Patriots, keep protesting – take over your institutions!!! help is on its way.’ As the scenario worsens nations, including India, advised their citizens to leave Iran. Trump enhanced his force levels in West Asia, including moving a carrier-based group within proximity. Iran offered negotiations, which Trump accepted, then withdrew.

There were reports that the US military gave options for striking Iran but were unsure whether these would lead to a regime change. In such a scenario, the aim of Trump would not be met. Trump therefore called off the strikes at the last minute. The US also moved its personal away from bases in Qatar and reduced strength in Middle East embassies, preparing for a retaliation. Trump’s official reason for calling off the strikes was that Iran promised to stop execution of protestors. 

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Israel also convinced Trump not to go ahead with the strikes. They believe that Iran’s retaliation could destabilize the region as Tehran is bound to hit back, resulting in collateral damage. Targeting Middle East oil facilities could damage their carefully built economy and impact global oil prices. Saudi Arabia even prohibited the US from exploiting its air space to target Iran, sending a message of peace to Tehran.

The scenario is complicated as also national interests are varied.

Israel would face the brunt of Iranian hypersonic missiles in retaliation. If Israel responds and there are civilian casualties, the Gaza peace plan would witness a drop in participation from Muslim nations. If Israel does not, Netanyahu would face a backlash. Any escalation would end Trump’s dream of a Nobel Peace Prize.

A US air strike can damage Iran’s economic assets, adding to anger amongst the public, but may not result in regime change. A nation can survive an economic failure, both Venezuela and Cuba have done for a prolonged duration, as long as the regime has support of the military. The US cannot put boots on the ground as in Venezuela, as Tehran is not on the coast nor can it buy off Iranian military personnel as it did in Venezuela. Loss of innocent lives in an airstrike can turn the same people its aims to assist, against the US.

Regime change can only happen when Iranian forces, especially the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), refuse to fire on protestors. Revolt by the military is what led to failure of regimes. The recent case in Bangladesh and that of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Gaddafi in Libya in 2011 are examples. The Romanian regime also fell in 1989 for the same reason. It does not appear to be happening in Iran currently.

Gulf nations hesitate over a regime change in Iran. They would prefer Iran being isolated rather than a pro-US regime.  This is for two reasons. The first is that a change by revolution would convey a warning message of a second Arab Spring across the Middle East. In addition, if a pro-US government comes to power in Tehran, the importance of Gulf nations to the US would reduce.

The second is that currently Iran is under sanctions and its oil exports are extremely low, with China as its main purchaser. This has kept the price of oil around USD 60. Induction of Venezuelan and Iranian oil into the market would bring prices down to approximately USD 40, impacting nations whose economy is dependent on oil. For both, Venezuela and Iran, exports would be essential to re-develop their economies.

US oil manufacturers themselves are concerned on Iran oil entering the market and dropping prices. As per inputs, new US shale wells cost USD 60 per barrel while older ones are as low as USD 30-35. The ideal global price for oil, for US producers, is USD 70 per barrel. If cheap Iranian oil is released with a pro-US government in Tehran, it would upset the market as also US oil exports. Trump may control the same, but after him, things could change.   

Both, Venezuela and Iran, are close to Russia and China. For the US, a regime change in Iran implies reduced influence of China and Russia in the region, as also end of cheap oil to China. With Venezuelan oil gone and Iran next, China could face economic difficulties. Both, Russia and China, can raise concerns but do little. It would also impact China’s ability to wage a conflict either against Taiwan or India.  

Engaging Iran militarily has benefits and also negative impacts. These are what Trump is considering before he takes a decision.