How Trump is pursuing America first in the Ukraine war and Iran crisis First Post 10 Feb 2026
https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/trump-securing-us-interests-ukraine-iran-crisis-13978299.html
How Trump is pursuing America first in the Ukraine war and Iran crisis First Post 10 Feb 2026
The second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine took place in Abu Dhabi, alongside the participation of the US. As per reports, both sides have made some progress but major sticking points continue. Russia wants Ukraine to hand over territory it demands, which Ukraine is unwilling to do, wanting the current frontlines as the ceasefire line. Russia also wants global recognition to the land it seeks. An added issue is security guarantees that Ukraine desires for accepting peace.
The Russian chief negotiator is its military intelligence director Igor Kostyukov, a career naval officer, known to be close to Putin. He is currently sanctioned by the west, including the US, after he was accused of stealing former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s emails in a cyber-attack. He has also been charged with interfering in US elections. Alongside him is Kiril Dmitriev, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund.
The Ukrainian delegation is headed by Rustem Umerov, its former defence minister and currently secretary of the National Security and Defence Council. His colleagues claim he has the ability to create ‘diplomatic wonders.’ He is assisted by Krylo Budanov, who is Zelensky’s head of office and a close aide. He is a former soldier against whom Russia has issued an arrest warrant for involvement in a 2022 Ukrainian attack on the Crimean Bridge.
Zelensky is himself placing Ukraine at a disadvantage. Hoping to cozy upto Washington, he has turned against his European allies. At Davos he mentioned, ‘Instead of becoming a truly global power, Europe remains a beautiful but fragmented kaleidoscope of small and middle powers,’ adding, ‘I stood here last year and said: Europe needs to know how to defend itself. A year has passed. And nothing has changed.’ European leaders termed his speech as ‘hysterical.’ It is unlikely that Zelensky would receive support from Europe as before, while the US would push him to accept Russian terms.
Talks are bound to be slow as neither side is currently willing to step back. The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, mentioned to reporters just prior to the second round, ‘Our position is well known.’ Meanwhile Russia has enhanced its attacks on Ukraine employing drones and missiles.
In its strike a day before the talks, Russia fired 71 missiles and 450 drones which crippled Ukraine’s energy grid in peak winters. These strikes continue. Putin played his cards well by accepting Trump’s demand to stop strikes for two days. At the end of the second round of talks both sides have exchanged POWs. The US mentioned that talks were positive however it would take more rounds to arrive at an amicable solution.
Russia is in no hurry to conclude the war, aware that it possesses the capacity to continue damaging Ukraine. How many more rounds of talks and how much more would it take before there is a solution is to be seen. Further, with Europe angered, Zelensky’s demands for more air defence equipment is unlikely to materialize. The world hopes that future talks would bring about a solution. Meanwhile the US continues sanctioning those procuring Russian oil.
Simultaneously, the US has reopened high-level military dialogue with Russia after a period of four years. It was also reported that both sides are negotiating a deal to extend the nuclear arms reduction treaty, due to expire soon. These actions signal warming of ties between the two. Zelensky has avoided elections using the war as an excuse. He may not be able to do so for long. Ultimately the US is keen to draw Russia away from China. For this to happen, Zelensky would be sacrificed.
Iran and the US held their first round of talks on Friday in Muscat, hoping to end the stalemate and a possible US attack on the country. While the US wants discussions on multiple issues including range of ballistic missiles, sponsoring terrorism, human rights and dealing with internal dissent, in addition to its nuclear program, Iran is only willing to discuss limiting of its nuclear program.
The US, enhancing pressure, has deployed its naval armada close to Iran as also activated its air power in bases in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf, threatening to strike. Middle East nations, fearing an escalation could damage their oil assets, are pushing the US against attacking Iran. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are denying the US their airspace to strike Iran. The US is aware that airstrikes will impact the Iranian economy, degrade its nuclear assets as also its military capabilities, however, is unlikely to result in a regime change, especially as Iranian authorities continue cracking down brutally against any protests.
The US end state has shifted from supporting the protestors to other military and nuclear subjects. This implies that it does not visualize a regime change happening in the near future. Meanwhile Iran remains amongst the most sanctioned nations on earth, whose economy has been severely impacted with high inflation.
For Middle East nations, the risk remains of an enlarged conflict, as Iran would definitely target US assets in their countries in retaliation. Israel is likely to face the major onslaught of Iranian missiles. If it retaliates, the war could only get worse. Civilians would be casualties across the region including in Iran. Iran has recently received Chinese equipment, including air defence, which would add to its capabilities. Any attack on the US naval armada could worsen the regional scenario.
Further a change in regime to pro-US would open Iranian oil to the world impacting global prices. This would hurt nations whose economy is dominated by oil exports as also producers of US shale oil, which needs prices to remain above USD 60 per barrel for their viability. They would prefer Iran is degraded militarily, its economy damaged, but the current regime continues.
Post the talk, statements were encouraging. Trump mentioned, ‘Iran looks like it wants to make a deal very badly. We have to see what that deal is.’ The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said, ‘We engage in good faith and stand firm on our rights.’ The last round of US-Iran talks ended when Israel struck Iran. This time it is unlikely. What was ultimately discussed is unknown, however the US imposed additional sanctions on Iran and vessels carrying Iranian crude.
For India resolution of both these conflicts is a benefit. Iran and Russia are both close allies. India has invested in the Chabahar port and would seek to continue exploiting it to bypass Pakistan in its trade with Afghanistan and Central Asian nations. It is seeking a waiver from the US on it, which has so far not been granted. Added would be resuming procurement of Iranian oil. Russia too is a friend from whom it procures oil and military hardware, despite US threats of sanctions and CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act). It is therefore pushing for a resolution of both conflicts.