Trump’s Iran calculus Is regime change the end game First Post 24 Feb 2026

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/us-iran-tensions-carrier-strike-groups-trump-warning-west-asia-escalation-13982969.html

Trump’s Iran calculus: Is regime change the end game First Post 24 Feb 2026

          The US is shifting immense military assets into the Middle East sending a warning of its offensive intent to Iran. A carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln is already deployed 700 Kms away from the Iranian coast. Another carrier group, headed by USS Gerald Ford, is enroute, expected to reach the region within a week. These two carrier groups have amongst them over 150 aircraft, alongside attack helicopters and advanced electronic warfare capabilities. Strike aircraft from Europe and the US are also being redeployed to the Middle East. Such a force cannot be only for posturing.

          Meanwhile Donald Trump has warned Iran that unless a deal is reached within the next ten days, he would be compelled to take limited military action. Iran, on the other hand, has mentioned that progress has been made in recent talks and ‘guiding principles’ agreed upon. Further talks are expected to continue. Simultaneously, its UN representative has warned that Iran seeks diplomacy and not war, but if attacked, then all US military bases, facilities and assets of the US in the region would be legitimate targets.

          For Iran, giving up its nuclear program would be political suicide for the ruling dispensation. Limiting ranges of its ballistic missiles as also stopping support to terrorist groups would signal surrender, which is unacceptable. It is aware that it faces tough choices if it seeks peace and chances of a breakthrough appear bleak. It has still not received any guaranteed support from its close allies, Russia and China. They may have provided weapon systems but these would not deter the US.

          There are also other geopolitical and internal factors guiding Trump’s decision making. The first is that Israel’s demands are exactly what the US is seeking to impose on Tehran, which is surrendering its nuclear program, limiting missile ranges and giving up its hold in the region. It is possible that Israel may initiate the strikes as it did in Jun last year, pushing the US to enter the conflict. The 2025 strikes happened while the US and Iran were in talks. The US had, in January, threatened to target Iran in support of the internal uprising but lacked deployed resources. While it has deployed military power, Iran has managed to subdue the protests. Thus, the change from supporting the uprising to talks on issues which Iran may not accede to.  

          The second is that most of Iranian oil is being procured by China. Having blocked Venezuelan oil flow to China, the US now seeks to stop Iranian oil, thereby waging an indirect economic war on it. 14% of Chinese oil comes from Iran. US hesitates to impose sanctions on China for procuring Iranian oil, despite announcing it, as Beijing has the ability to counter by restricting exports of rare earths. This is the best alternative. China can only condemn any US action on Iran but do little else. It is likely that if the US targets Iran, China may cancel the proposed visit of Trump to Beijing in end March.

          The third is that Trump is under pressure internally. The US Supreme Court has challenged his decision on imposing unilateral tariffs across the world. While Trump would find a way out, being overruled has damaged his reputation. Europe is uniting against his decision to annex Greenland. The Epstein files has impacted his internal standing. His decision to order US agencies, including the defence department, to release files on ‘aliens and extraterrestrial life,’ is a means of mitigating the damage caused by Epstein files by switching ongoing internal media debates.

          Fourthly, Trump’s much touted Board of Peace (BoP) has proved to be a damp squid. Promises are being made on Gaza but nothing appears to be moving on ground. Meanwhile Israel continues targeting Palestinians. Netanyahu has given 60 days for the disarming of Hamas. It seems as if Israel holds the cards and could be blackmailing Trump to act on Iran in return for supporting his policies on Gaza. Trump’s hopes of the BoP being more effective that the UN has ended as nations which matter have refused to join, criticizing its intent.

Added has been his inability to stop the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Talks continue with no end in sight as both sides stick to their stands. His only partial success is that of Venezuela. However, here too there are rumours that Maduro may be returned to Venezuela as the US lacks proof for his conviction.  

Fifthly, Trump’s popularity is receding. Inflation is rising within the US and with mid-term elections three months away, he has to do something to regain the initiative. This is where Iran comes in. If the US is drawn into a prolonged conflict it could add to his unpopularity. If Iran blocks the Hormoz Straits oil prices would sky rocket adding to his concerns. Similar would be the case if his end state is not met and the current Iranian regime continues.

          Finally, moving such a massive force, a third of the US navy and a fourth of its air power, and pulling back without any action, sounds illogical as billions of tax-payers funds have been expended in relocating these forces. If talks were moving as planned then the USS Gerald Ford could have turned back or deployed way away to continue signalling pressure. The fact that the build-up continues indicates that his intent remains to strike Iran.

          If the US’s aim is regime change, which Trump has been hinting at, then only aerial strikes may not succeed. It would need a simultaneous internal uprising accompanied by attacks from groups which are anti the Iranian government, exploiting confusion caused by US military action. This is possibly where Israel and Pakistan come into play.

Israel’s MOSSAD and the CIA have infiltrated deep within Iran as recent actions, including the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists and Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas in Jul 2024, indicate. They also clandestinely support groups which are against the current Iranian regime. It has been reported that arms and ammunition have been smuggled into Iran for possibly such an intent.

Pakistan is home to Sunni separatist groups, which would be tasked to strike within Iran alongside US attacks. These would be armed by the CIA. There are unconfirmed reports of US military cargo flights to Pakistan carrying weapons and ammunition. Recent meetings between Pakistan’s failed marshal Asim Munir and representatives of the US and Israel point in this direction.

Before the US launches airstrikes, it would need to have its end state plans firmed up and ready for implementation. It is aware that its strikes can damage the Iranian economy and degrade its military power but may not lead to regime change, which Trump has been hinting at. For that simultaneous internal actions are needed. This is what the US is waiting for. The US has no intent of placing boots on the ground.

What remains a mute question is what would be the end state in case US actions succeed? Would Iran remain one state with a new regime or would it end up in turmoil as Iraq, Libya or Syria are. A splintered and destabilized Iran suits Israel and other Middle eastern powers, while a stable and pro-US Iran suits the US. It is also possible that the current regime remains in power despite severe losses. If that happens, Trump gains nothing and it could offset his plans of gaining in the oncoming mid-term elections. The next two weeks would be crucial.