Armed forces must be ready on both fronts The Statesman 30 Dec 2025

https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4099669/Kolkata-The-Statesman/30TH-DECEMBER-2025#page/9/2

Armed forces must be ready on both fronts The Statesman 30 Dec 2025

          The Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China, titled, ‘Military and Security Developments involving the People’s Republic of China,’ released last week, mentions, ‘China’s leadership has extended the term “core interest” to cover Taiwan and China’s sovereignty claims amid territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the Senkaku Islands, and the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.’ It also mentions that China intends to incorporate these regions by 2049, though Xi Jinping has asked the PLA to be ready to occupy Taiwan by 2027.

          The report adds, in specific reference to Indo-China relations, ‘China probably seeks to capitalize on decreased tension along the LAC to stabilize bilateral relations and prevent deepening of US-India ties; however, India probably remains sceptical of China’s actions and motives. Continued mutual distrust and other irritants almost certainly limit the bilateral relationship.’ There is no doubt that despite some-what normalization of ties, distrust exists.

          While disengagement has taken place along the LAC including creation of buffer zones at some places, de-induction is nowhere on the cards. Additional troops deployed in the region, remain in situ, a sign of continuing distrust. It is also possible that China is avoiding de-induction as this could enhance troop deployment in Kashmir, posing an additional threat to Pakistan as also denying space to its sponsored terrorists.

China displays its anti-India/ pro-Pakistan stance by backing Pakistan at every opportunity, despite failed marshal Asim Munir’s tilt towards the US. It is known that apart from shielding Pakistan on the Pahalgam terrorist strike, while officially condoning it, China assisted Pak by providing it with intelligence and satellite inputs, intending to influence the battlefield during Operation Sindoor.

India refused to ink the joint statement of the SCO defence ministers meet as it mentioned the Jaffar train high-jacking but not Pahalgam.

          In Nov, the US released ‘US-China Economic and Security Review Commission,’ mentioned, ‘Beijing opportunistically leveraged the conflict (Operation Sindoor) to test and advertise the sophistication of its weapons.’ However, this gamble was unsuccessful, as Chinese products failed.

China and Pakistan also launched a joint narrative to discredit the Rafale aircraft in the hope of enhancing sales of Chinese aircraft. As per French intelligence, China utilized ‘AI and video game images’ claiming them to be debris of Rafale aircraft. The narrative was soon busted.  

          China’s intent to keep the Arunachal issue alive was evident in the detaining for 18 hours of Arunachal resident, Prema Thongdok, at Shanghai’s Pudong Airport, while she transited through China in Nov. When questioned the Chinese spokesperson mentioned that immigration officials acted ‘according to laws and regulations,’ adding that China does not recognize Arunachal Pradesh, referring to it as Zangnan (Southern Tibet) and calling it ‘Chinese territory.’

          The current US report also mentions that China is seeking bases in India’s vicinity in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, despite possessing one in Gwadar in Pakistan, hoping to strengthen its string of pearls. This is alongside other bases it seeks on Africa’s west coast. The intent is to secure its sea lanes of communication which can be exploited during hostilities.

India is countering China by expanding its military facilities in Nicobar as also by establishing a collection of surveillance and access facilities across the Indian Ocean Region. The Nicobar base, when completed will, apart from challenging Chinese ‘string of pearls,’ also monitor Chinese shipping and dominate the Malacca Straits. It will be a major deterrent.

China has criticized the US Pentagon document claiming it is distorting facts. On Indo-China ties, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson mentioned, ‘The overall situation along the China-India border is stable at present, and communication channels between the two sides remain open.’ He added, ‘China keeps viewing and handling China-India relations from a strategic and long-term perspective.’ However Chinese actions indicate the reverse.    

Both, China and the US need India on their side. China faces pressures on its economy, tensions in the East and South China Seas and Taiwan and hence does not seek another active frontier, at least for now. The US desires a militarily strong India to dominate the Indian Ocean and its choke points as also be a threat to China. It is wooing India with technology offers and equipment, while trade and diplomacy remain under strain. 

Despite there being no untoward incident along the LAC, the situation is, in the words of the army chief, ‘sensitive but stable.’ There is a possibility that discussions at local military levels can reduce tensions as also help delineate disputed borders, but these have little meaning, unless authenticated by governments, which is unlikely. It may be a temporary measure at best. Xi is in no hurry to settle the dispute as China always considers India as a competitor.

          India is working to bridge the gap in capabilities, but this will take time and finances. In addition is rapid development of infrastructure along its northern borders, largely to enhance reaction capabilities. While the armed forces continue working towards theaterization, thereby reducing operational commands responsible for the northern border, the army is restructuring and modernizing the force to meet challenges of the future.

          The PLA is well aware of the doggedness and determination of the Indian soldier and hence hesitates to engage in kinetic operations, preferring grey zone warfare including incursions. India too needs to concentrate and coordinate its grey zone activities. As a policy, India must counter every Chinese incursion with a similar action, albeit in a different terrain, sending a message of determination. Both have sensitive regions, well known to the other.

          India must also expect China to come to the aid of Pakistan in the event of an Indo-Pak clash similar to Sindoor. Victor Gao, Vice President of the ‘Centre for China and Globalization’ echoed Beijing’s view by mentioning post Sindoor, ‘China will never allow any country to violate Pakistan’s borders or sovereignty.’

          To counter any possible Chinese threat, either singly or in support of Pakistan, priority must be to reassess responsibility of formations along different borders. We cannot have a multitude of commands managing the northern theatre nor a single command (Northern) responsible for two sensitive fronts, when both can be activated in unison.  

With theaterization, there would be one formation responsible for each front, Northern and Western, currently there should not be more than two army commands dealing with the Northern adversary.

It is therefore essential that responsibility for Eastern Ladakh be shifted to Central Command, which currently manages Himachal and Uttarakhand borders. This would provide enhanced options to respond to Chinese misadventures, while enabling Northern to concentrate on Pakistan. Central command also needs a corps HQ to coordinate actions of various formations within it. The army need to be pragmatic and think ahead, rather than continue with outdated structures.