China-Japan spat The Excelsior 30 Nov 2025

https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/china-japan-spat/

China-Japan spat The Excelsior 30 Nov 2025

          China reacted angrily after the Japanese PM, Sanae Takaichi, mentioned in response to a question in their parliament that a Chinese assault on Taiwan could constitute a ‘survival-threatening situation’ for Japan, which could lead to it exercising ‘it’s right of self-defence.’ She even invoked the US-Japan defence treaty. All this, despite Japan accepting the ‘One China’ policy in 1972, when it normalized relations with Beijing.

In 2011, former Japanese PM, Shinzo Abe, had also mentioned, ‘A Taiwan contingency is a contingency for Japan. In other words, it is also a contingency for the Japan-US alliance. People in Beijing, particularly President Xi Jinping, should not misjudge that.’ Japan has been conveying that occupation of Taiwan would only be the start of Chinese offensive actions in the region.

Takaichi is a conservative who regularly visits the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. This shrine honours Japan’s war dead, including convicted war criminals, hence disliked in China. Since becoming PM, she has avoided doing so.

China, responding to her Taiwan comments, issued travel and education advisories for Japan, stopped imports of Japanese seafood as also despatched coastguard and naval vessels close to Japanese islands as a show of force. It began falsely highlighting targeting of Chinese citizens in Japan, ignoring the reverse in China.

Beijing prevented its premier from meeting Takaichi on the sidelines of the G20 summit. The Chinese also summoned the Japanese ambassador and demanded that the statement be retracted. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi stated that ‘Japan crossed the red line.’

China’s concern was evident when it raised the dispute in the UN. In a letter to the UN Secretary General, the Chinese permanent representative wrote, ‘If Japan dares to attempt an armed intervention in the cross-Strait situation, it would be an act of aggression.’ The Chinese Counsel General in Osaka tweeted on social media seeking the ‘head’ of the Japanese PM, only to retract it later. China was countering with every means at its disposal, led by its ‘wolf warrior’ diplomats.

The Chinese President, Xi Jinping, requested for a tele conversation with Trump on the subject. This is possibly the first time in years that China requested for a call, normally it being the US. While Trump commented on the conversation in his Truth Social post, avoiding any mention of Taiwan, the Chinese readout specifically mentioned Taiwan. It said Taiwan’s return to China was an ‘integral part of the postwar international order,’ highlighting its historical dispute with Japan.  

Trump also spoke with Takaichi soon after his conversation with Xi Jinping. This call was initiated by Trump. Takaichi mentioned, ‘We confirmed the close coordination between Japan and the US.’ Neither side confirmed whether Taiwan was discussed, though Trump is likely to have asked her to tone down her comments, as he seeks to enhance US ties with China.

Such reaction from China would not have happened unless Takaichi hit a raw nerve. There is no doubt that an independent Taiwan is a concern for China, which has threatened to integrate it by force. Xi has repeatedly tasked his PLA to prepare for occupation of the island and has regularly conducted threatening exercises in its vicinity.

China had presumed that the world would watch, possibly criticize in global forums, while it occupied Taiwan by force, but Takaichi’s comments implied possible global intervention.  

Till now it was expected that Japan would militarily only intervene in Taiwan, provided the US did, though it has no legal obligation to do so. Thus far, US policies on supporting Taiwan militarily have been vague. However, this statement meant that it could be Japan leading the way, with the US forced to be involved, based on the US-Japan defence pact.

A similar scenario could emerge with the Philippines, where it may also join the US in countering the invasion. This could draw in other nations. Takaichi’s statement also conveys that nations would intervene, despite accepting the ‘One China’ policy. This goes against the Chinese perception.

Takaichi had her reasons for making the statement. For Japan, the loss of Taiwan would impact its maritime and economic security, hence is essential that the nation continues to survive. Taiwan is located barely a hundred Kms from Yonaguni Island, Japan’s westernmost inhabited territory.

This implies that any Chinese activity would violate Japanese air and EEZ, which it already does during exercises threatening Taiwan. It would also open doors for China to demand possession of the disputed Senkaku islands from Japan.

Most of Japan’s oil imports move through the Taiwan straits. Loss of these straits to China would have far reaching impact on Japan’s economy, as the straits would become China’s inland waterway, which it could block at any time. Taiwan is Japan’s fourth largest trading partner as also plays a major role in its IT sector, which would be impacted.

Takaichi did signal a turndown when she stated that she would restore ties with China through dialogue.  

For India, which has steered away from the controversy, the Chinese message is clear. If it is threatening Japan today, it would do the same with India, when it comes to its claim lines. Any nation coming in support of India could face the same set of pressures as Japan is facing. China has not budged on its claims on Ladakh as also Arunachal. India must be prepared to defend its territories on its own. Taiwan, realizing the same, has enhanced its defence budget by USD 40 Billion to counter growing Chinese threat.

China recently re-ignited the Arunachal dispute with the incident of Pema Thongdok, an Indian national, born in Arunachal, settled in the UK, while transiting through Beijing. She was held up for more than 18 hours, on grounds of her passport mentioning Arunachal, before being permitted to proceed. India issued a ‘demarche’ to China on the subject but that would have little meaning.

Takaichi has displayed that standing upto China can rattle Xi Jinping, forcing Beijing to open all cards. This approach should also be considered by India in its dealing with China. India and Japan should also enhance their security ties, especially as it concerns the Indo-Pacific, in view of the common threat by China. The two most powerful nations in Asia, after China, standing together, can send a firm message, especially now when Trump has different intentions.