How Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks won’t make India compromise redlines First Post 20 Oct 2025

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/trump-remarks-india-strategic-redlines-13943562.html

How Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks won’t make India compromise redlines First Post 20 Oct 2025

          Trump has been unilaterally commenting on India in his press conferences, each time being countered on the validity of his statements. It began with him claiming to be behind the ceasefire in Operation Sindoor. Inputs exist that Pakistan’s failed marshal approached US Secretary of State, Marc Rubio, to negotiate a ceasefire, after India destroyed a collection of Pak bases and its aircraft.

It is possible that Rubio spoke to his counterpart, Dr S Jaishankar and was told that Pak has to approach India direct as Delhi accepts no third-party mediation on Indo-Pak affairs. Feedback of the DGMO (Director General Military Operations) call, with India agreeing to a ceasefire, would have been communicated to Rubio by Asim Munir, based on which Trump jumped and announced it, taking credit.

For Pakistan, Trump’s announcement was a life-send opportunity, saving it from ignominy of defeat. Hence, they recommended him for a Nobel award, claiming he stopped a potential nuclear conflict. None in the world, other than Trump, believes it could have expanded into a nuclear war. The world is aware that India humiliated Pak in just 88 hours.

Despite PM Modi publicly calling Trump’s statements a lie he continues to claim credit. The latest being asking Shehbaz Sharief to repeat his comments made in the White House from the stage during the Gaza peace summit in Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt. US 50% tariffs and sanctions on India emerged post India refusing to give Trump credit, thereby denying his claims for a Nobel award.

His lap dogs, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and trade advisor Peter Navarro, began commenting on India’s closed markets, backing Trump’s statements that India must be punished, the pretext being the Ukraine war, the truth, India terming Trump a liar. Howard Lutnick stated, ‘yes, in a month or two months, I think India is going to be at the table and they’re going to say they’re sorry and they’re going to try to make a deal with Donald Trump.’ Nothing happened. India’s determination not to bend to US pressures forced them into silence. Neither has commented on India in weeks.  

The reason why neither PM Modi nor EAM Jaishankar attended the Gaza peace summit was because they expected Trump to grab media attention and re-announce his ceasefire claims, as also try to get Modi and Sharief to shake hands on the stage as he did with the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Countering Trump on the global stage would have been detrimental to ties, while accepting in silence would be politically embarrassing. It was maturity and understanding Trump’s skewed mindset which avoided an embarrassment for both nations. 

The latest Trump’s statement claiming that PM Modi promised him that he would stop procuring Russian oil, though it would take time, is another example of a one-sided announcement. India, once again hit back stating that there was no conversation between the two leaders. For Trump, India stopping procurement of Russian oil was imperative for application of pressure on Moscow to stop the conflict.

The reality is vastly different. India began procuring Russian oil when global prices had risen to over USD 100 per barrel. India could not risk its economy being impacted by rising oil prices. Currently, they are hovering around USD 65, offering India a chance to expand its procurement base beyond Russia. This expansion could include purchasing from the US too.

India is a quagmire for the Trump administration, which it cannot influence. India’s rising economy, military power and market give it the power to adopt strategic autonomy and turn down pressures. Hence, the Indo-US trade dispute remains confined to trade and has not impacted military and strategic ties, which continue to flourish.

Despite ongoing trade talks including backchannel dialogue, India has shown an unwillingness to bend on its principles. It will never open its farm and dairy sector nor would it degrade its ties with Russia nor leave the BRICS, another of Trump’s targets. On the contrary India will assume the Presidency of the BRICS in Jan 2026 and the next leaders’ summit would be in India.

The US will have to negotiate the trade deal within India’s red lines. In the long term it cannot lose the Indian market as also its partnership. Recently the IMF raised India’s growth forecast to 6.6% despite US imposed tariffs. India’s exports increased to the UAE, Spain, China, Bangladesh and Egypt while reducing to the US, displaying a modest 0.8% growth over the previous year. Hence, India can hold out to Trump’s threats.

Adding to US problems is China stopping export of rare earth minerals to the US, even from third-parties. Unlike China, India is not retaliating to the US, leaving doors open for concluding a trade agreement and restoration of ties. With China imposing restrictions, US is bound to feel the pinch.

Scott Bessent, the US secretary of treasury, who had earlier termed India, Russia and China as ‘bad actors’ for fuelling the Ukraine war, needing to be dealt with, is now singing a different tune. In a recent interview to Fox Business on China imposing restrictions on rare earths, he stated, ‘I expect that we will get substantial global support from the Europeans, from the Indians, from the democracies in Asia.’ He termed Chinese actions as ‘China versus the rest of the world.’  

However, Trump’s unilateral and illogical statements are compelling India to publicly display its strategic autonomy. New Delhi will be forced to continue to enhance defence and economic ties with Russia as also oil procurements, albeit depending on market rates. India can never cede to US pressures as it would be political suicide.

The opposition within the country is seeking to corner the government on Trump’s claims, further compelling it to push closer to Russia. Putin’s visit to New Delhi in December is another indicator of India adhering to its strategic autonomy. 

As the US-China trade war heats up, it will need to resolve its differences with India. China has been signalling an acceptance to increased Indian imports.   Washington cannot let India move into the Chinese camp, either strategically nor on trade. The current round of trade talks, with Trump’s lap dogs silent, does send a message that differences can be resolved. Whatever the US does, it will ultimately have to do so within Indian redlines, with India enhancing oil procurements and defence purchases. The stumbling block is Trump and his off-the-cuff remarks.