India, Afghanistan and Pakistan The Excelsior 23 Jul 2024 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
India, Afghanistan and Pakistan The Excelsior 23 Jul 2024
The third edition of UN international conference on Afghanistan was held in Doha at the end of last month. It was attended by 25 nations, including India, as also a five-member Taliban government delegation from Kabul. The Afghans were not invited to the first and had refused to attend the second edition on grounds that women and civil society groups be banned and they be considered primary representatives of the country. This was partially agreed to in the third round. Women and civil society groups were invited for a separate gathering and not the main discussion.
The Taliban demands in the conference were lifting of sanctions on their central bank, unfreezing of their financial reserves in the US and provision of alternate employment for farmers whose poppy production has been banned. There was no official acceptance of their demands.
There were also separate discussions between Taliban representatives and other delegates. While the meeting does not imply recognition of the government, it indicates that the world has commenced engaging with the Taliban.
Simultaneously, a UN security council report mentions that terrorist groups, including al Qaeda, are re-establishing their presence in Afghanistan. It adds that the ISKP (Islamic State Khorasan Province) is becoming a powerful force alongside the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan), which is believed to have around 6500 fighters. While the TTP targets Pakistan, the ISKP is responsible for attacks within Afghanistan as also its neighbouring countries, as far as Russia.
It is evident that after being in power for almost four years, the Taliban have managed to stabilize Afghanistan and are no longer a threat to any neighbour, but Pakistan. It has implemented a major global demand of cutting down poppy cultivation. Nations which have interacted with them, including New Delhi, have found them to be uninterested in spreading their agenda nor making statements which could irk others. However, their ideology remains unchanged.
The Taliban have also proved that they are no longer under the thumb of Pakistan’s ISI. Their differences with Islamabad include non-recognition of the Durand Line as the border between the two countries, its fencing by Pak, forcible deportation of Afghan refugees and employing transit facilities as a threat. For Pakistan, Taliban’s continued support to the TTP is a matter of concern. Simultaneously Pakistan backs the ISKP in its operations against the Taliban.
As Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan worsen, India’s improve. India has continued to provide humanitarian assistance, which includes food, pesticides and medicines, to the country. While it officially does not recognize the Taliban government, it maintains a technical mission in the country. In March this year, a joint secretary led delegation visited Kabul.
As per the MEA, ‘The delegation held discussions on India’s humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan and also discussed the use of the Chabahar Port by Afghan traders.’ India’s assistance to Kabul is routed through the Chabahar port, bypassing Pakistan. Afghanistan has also expressed a desire to invest in a special economic zone in the Chabahar port region, indicating it prefers engagement with India and Iran, rather than Pakistan.
In a recent interview with Kazinform News Agency in Astana, Kazakhstan, EAM Dr S Jaishankar mentioned, ‘we have a historical relationship with the people of Afghanistan. We continue to supply medicine to the hospitals in Afghanistan. We also supply wheat.’ The Taliban government has repeatedly thanked India for its benevolence.
Frustrated with almost daily attacks by the TTP and Baloch in its western province, Pakistan launched Operation Azm-i-Istehkam with much fanfare. The operation is aimed at eradicating these groups on their soil. Nothing much has been achieved till date. Their defence minister accusing Afghanistan of supporting the TTP warned of cross border strikes. Daily attacks on Pakistan outposts, causing heavy casualties, continue unabated.
For Pakistan, attacks by these groups on CPEC projects is hampering their progress. Chinese engineers are fearful of venturing to project sites, as also investments from China are dropping. The Chinese have demanded that unless Pak improves its security environment, investments would reduce. The raising of army units, specifically to provide security to the Chinese have been unsuccessful.
Pakistan’s attempts to negotiate with the TTP, on the advice of the Afghan Taliban, have failed on multiple occasions. The TTP has resources and supporters of its ideology deep within Pakistan’s security circles. Last week, aware of possible drone strikes, it directed its cadre located close to the Durand line to relocate temporarily. On the contrary, there are very limited Pak backers in Afghanistan.
The anger against Pakistan is visible across Afghanistan, such that they celebrate Pakistan’s cricket losses, while rejoicing alongside Indian fans on India’s victories. After India refused to play the Champions trophy in Pakistan, early next year, on security concerns, the Afghan cricket team too backed down on similar grounds.
In an attempt to bribe the Taliban government, Pakistan and China offered to pay them for relocating TTP cadres and their families from close to the Durand Line to deep within Afghanistan. The Chinese were even attempting to offer bribes to the TTP leadership to pull back. However, nothing worked. The Afghan government made promises but refused to push the TTP. In fact, the TTP has been gifted US weaponry left behind when they withdrew in 2021 by the Taliban leadership.
Such is the desperation within the Pak establishment that its permanent representative to the UN, Munir Akram, mentioned in a discussion, ‘The TTP and its associates have been responsible for numerous cross-border attacks against Pakistan, resulting in hundreds of civilian and military casualties.’ He added that safe havens along the Durand Line are responsible for their ability to target Pakistan. This is the same Pakistan which praised the same Taliban when it defeated NATO and took over Kabul on the same platform.
Inputs indicate that a conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan is on the cards. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the TTP’s stronghold, many districts are under their control. Thus, they could cause mayhem in case Pak decides to cross the Durand Line.
India must continue building its relations with Kabul while Pakistan’s worsen. Providing them facilities of the Chabahar port as against Karachi, would embolden them to challenge Pak more brazenly. This will keep Pak engaged and continue draining their fragile economy. A low cost option for India.