India’s balancing act in Tianjin The Statesman 09 Sep 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4054421/Kolkata-The-Statesman/09TH-SEP-2025#page/9/2
India’s balancing act in Tianjin The Statesman 09 Sep 2025
The recently concluded SCO summit in Tianjin displayed India’s ability to balance ties with different groupings. Contrary to views, New Delhi’s attempts to resolve its differences with Beijing are not due to tariffs imposed by Trump, though they are factored in, but a desire to restore normalcy along a vexed border. Since the Modi-Xi meeting at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in Oct 2024, there has been steady mending of fences. Trump’s tariffs were only a catalyst.
Ajit Doval had met his counterpart Wang Yi in Dec last year followed by similar meetings in Jun and Aug this year. Jaishankar too has met Wang Yi on multiple occasions, including on the sidelines of different forums. The latest visit of Wang Yi to Delhi a fortnight before the SCO summit was China’s way of signalling their intent to improve ties and remove roadblocks. Most of what was discussed during Wang Yi’s visit was firmed up in Tianjin.
The MEA statement emphasizing the Indian view during PM Modi’s interaction with Xi, mentioned, ‘importance of peace and tranquillity on the border areas for continued development of bilateral relations.’ A strong signal from China was having Cai Qi, the enforcer of Xi Jinping, meet PM Modi. Cai Qi is the most sought-after member of Xi’s close circle in Beijing, however remains unavailable.
Cai met no other dignitary during the summit, signalling possible seriousness in improving ties. Cai had also planned a luncheon in honour of PM Modi which was subsequently cancelled due to scheduling issues. A Chinese handout quoted Cai mentioning, ‘(China) is willing to work with India to enhance friendly exchanges and mutually beneficial cooperation, properly manage and resolve differences, and promote further improvement and development of China-India relations.’
Militarily, de-induction along the LAC may not come easily, considering the trust deficit runs high. The difference in infrastructure on both sides of the LAC implies that pulling back a few hundred Kms by troops currently present, may not be the answer, as China could take a few hours to return to the LAC, due to better infrastructure, while Indian forces much more.
The solution may lie in both sides accepting an altitude differential, which would imply a near similar timeframe for movement based on the need to acclimatize. This may not be acceptable to China. Hence, the current scenario could remain, with tenuous peace as existing at present.
Proximity in ties between PM Modi and President Putin of Russia was evident in the manner the two met throughout the summit. Not only did they spend time together, they travelled to the venue of their bilateral in the same vehicle as also had a one-on-one tete for about 45 minutes prior to their formal meeting, without the presence of a translator. Both are familiar with English.
The war in Ukraine, Trump’s ranting, sanctions and the way forward in enhancing ties would likely have been discussed. It was Putin who shared what had transpired in Alaska with Modi shortly after his summit with Trump.
Trump himself and his lap dogs Peter Navarro and Howard Lutnick criticized Modi’s visit to the SCO summit. Both have been commenting adversely on India and its relationship with Russia in a manner not witnessed in mature diplomacy. This is a sign of their desperation on being ignored by New Delhi and its refusal to tow their line. In their opinion India is moving closer to Russia and China and distancing itself from the US, something for which the Trump administration must take blame.
India is not a nation to be cowed by threats and sanctions. Many former members of previous US administrations as also think tanks in the US blame Trump and his rantings alongside tariffs for the current chilling of Indo-US ties and New Delhi’s increased bonhomie with Beijing and Moscow.
India, on its part, has maintained silence on comments from the US, generally ignoring them, only mentioning it is acting in national interest and adhering to its strategic autonomy. This has left doors open for re-commencing negotiations, provided Trump is willing, a message he has begun to convey.
Both Putin and Xi criticized the US on sanctions. Putin mentioned, ‘You cannot talk to India or China in that way.’ Xi asked members of the SCO to ‘oppose the Cold War mentality, bloc confrontation and bullying practices.’ Contrary to Trump’s claims, India has not reduced its procurement of Russian oil.
The photograph of PM Modi and President Putin laughing while Xi stands alongside smiling is haunting the US administration as it highlights their failed diplomacy.
Simultaneously, India continues to enhance its ties with Europe. PM Modi spokes to the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, and the European Council President, António Costa. Talks were on ending the Ukrainian conflict and concluding Free Trade Agreement negotiations by the end of the year. Trump, in his desperation to get India to bend has been attempting to pressurize the EU to join the US in placing sanctions on India, something the EU is hesitating to do.
India, signalled its limits in ties with Beijing by PM Modi missing from the Chinese victory parade marking the 80th anniversary of its victory in the Second World War, held a day after the conclusion of the SCO summit in Tianjin. Most leaders who attended the SCO summit, including Putin, stayed back for this event. If the US fails to read the tea leaves on this, then it is due to their myopic vision.
For India to develop, it needs cheap oil as also a peaceful border with China. Pakistan, a sworn enemy, already has the backing of Washington and Beijing. The meeting between Trump and their de-facto ruler Asim Munir, in the White House has added to their confidence. It will continue with its actions of supporting anti-India terrorist groups. Hence, the border would remain active.
The growing proximity amongst members of BRICS and the SCO will be a challenge for US hegemony in the days ahead. Maximum tariffs on India, Brazil and China is an incentive for them to work together. It is also a message of the future, multilateralism. India is a mature middle power, which needs best deals for its economic growth. Trump, possibly understanding that he may have gone overboard is signalling a pull back. Is he serious is what we need to wait and watch for.