India’s neighbourhood needed a firm message The Excelsior 19 Apr 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
India’s neighbourhood needed a firm message The Excelsior 19 Apr 2025
India’s neighbourhood is anything but stable. Internal turmoil in Bangladesh, increasing since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, alongside rise of extremism with Islamist forces gaining ground, remains a matter of concern. Its growing proximity to Pakistan and China as also attacks on its Hindu minority have raised shackles in Delhi. Nepal’s current PM, Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, continues playing the China card, regularly re-raises the border issue while accusing India for its ongoing pro-monarchy protests.
India’s frustration on their approach was evident when it turned down requests for visits by their heads of state. Neither Yunus nor Oli have visited India since assuming their current appointments. Simultaneously, India has slowed down its assistance and support to these countries.
India, till the last minute, refused to confirm bilateral meetings with both nations on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok. These were requested by them. The meetings were scheduled at the last minute with a clear message that India is unhappy and would not accept actions which impact its security.
With Bangladesh there were three separate dialogues, one between the two foreign ministers, the second between the Indian NSA, Ajit Doval and their PM’s high representative, Khalilur Rahman, at a social event, and finally between the two Prime Ministers. In every meeting India firmly conveyed that any action, viewed by New Delhi as anti-India, would invite countermeasures. The intent was to clarify that if Bangladesh desires friendly ties, then it must change the way it does business.
Especially raised was the growing proximity between Bangladesh and India’s perennial adversaries, Pakistan and China. It was a stark warning that if Bangladesh joined Pakistan in fermenting anti-India activities, Delhi would react. It was also advised to curb illegal immigration as any such attempt would be met with violence from India’s security agencies. It was reported that Jaishankar also conveyed New Delhi’s displeasure on Yunus’s remarks on India’s North East in China, which Bangladesh clarified was misinterpreted.
While covered in diplomatic niceties, PM Modi conveyed to Yunus, India’s stand. Mentioning India desired a ‘democratic, stable, peaceful, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh,’ he conveyed that the current government is not legal as it has not been democratically elected. India insisted that Bangladesh conduct free and fair polls with participation of all political parties, including Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League.
Modi also turned down Bangladesh’s demands on repatriation of Sheikh Hasina as also accusations that her statements incited violence. India insisted that the anti-India rhetoric, especially flowing from the Dacca administration comes to an end as also agreements, including connectivity with India’s NE, through Bangladesh, inked with the previous regime, continue being honoured. India would have obtained Bangladesh’s inputs on its proposed airbase, likely to be constructed by China, in its Lalmonirhat district, located close to India’s strategic Chicken’s neck.
To display its continued displeasure, India withdrew a key transit facility that allowed Bangladesh to export cargo through Indian territory to third countries. India’s leadership could not have been firmer. If Bangladesh continues on the same path, India could respond stronger, after all it is Bangladesh’s largest neighbour and possesses the power to cause significant upheaval. This messaging was essential as Dacca continues exploiting India’s goodwill on the hope that it could play the India vs China card.
PM Modi met the Nepalese PM, Oli, in a one-to-one meeting, without presence of aides. The intent was to convey India’s views on the current government. While Modi denied any role in the ongoing pro-monarchy protests in the country, it insisted that raising the border issue for political gains would not bode well for Nepal.
A readout in Nepal’s Kathmandu Times mentioned, ‘The PM’s discussed the latest status of our bilateral ties ranging from the ongoing pro-Hindu and pro-royalist movement in Nepal to the boundary dispute, development cooperation and, most importantly, the strained ties between Kathmandu and New Delhi.’ Oli also mentioned to his aides that finally his visit to India could materialize before Mid-May. India possibly agreed on Oli’s visit provided Nepal delivered.
PM Modi also met Myanmar’s Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. This meeting was unexpected as Myanmar faces global sanctions as also the nation is recovering from an earthquake. India was amongst the first nations to rush aid. Apart from providing foodgrains and medicines, it also despatched a military hospital. Modi, pushing global agenda raised conduct of elections.
Following the BIMSTEC summit was PM Modi’s visit to Columbo. Here, India played its cards differently. It converted USD 100 million given as a loan into a grant. Ceylon Times quoted PM Modi as mentioning, ‘In the last six months alone, we have converted loans worth over USD 100 M into grants.’ The media report added, ‘This move is expected to ease Sri Lanka’s financial burden as it recovers from its worst economic crisis in decades.’
The end result was Sri Lanka signing a slew of agreements with India including an unprecedented defence agreement. Formally the defence agreement aims at joint military exercises, training programmes, and high-level exchanges. Sri Lanka has been wary of any such agreement since the IPKF deployment. PM Modi mentioned in his statement, ‘We believe that our security interests are similar. The security of both countries is interlinked and dependent on each other.’
Responding to India’s support, Sri Lankan President, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, mentioned ‘India’s assistance to Sri Lanka in times of need and continuing solidarity are deeply cherished.’ He added that Sri Lanka will never permit its territory to be used in ways which could harm India’s security. This is the same Sri Lanka which had once tilted towards China, but realized that India was a better bet. Maldives too has shifted gears from China to India.
India, adopting a carrot and stick approach has conveyed strong messages to nations in the neighbourhood who believed they could play the China card. India is not the nation it was a decade ago. It has displayed that it is neither a pushover nor will it be taken for granted.
Being firm, refusing to accede to requests for visits or a bilateral till the last moment it kept those who attempted to exploit it at bay, while continuing to fund initiatives which benefit the local populace. Bilateral meetings were exploited to convey suitable messages. India is now re-gaining its hold over its neighbourhood.