Known devils but the details must emerge The Statesman 30 Jul 2024 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
Known devils but the details must emerge The Statesman 30 Jul 2024
The withdrawal of President Biden from the race for US Presidentship has altered dynamics of forthcoming elections. Biden was considered mentally weak when compared to a pushing Trump. Bookies, which till recently had almost confirmed a Trump victory, now have doubts on who would be the next occupant of the White House. While few continue to project a Trump victory, others believe his chances have reduced. It will no longer be a walkover for trump.
These are still early days as Kamala Harris’s formal campaigning has yet to commence. She held her first rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Trump and Vance, his running mate for Vice-President, were nominated in a Republican rally. The attendance of over 3000 was the largest in a rally in 2024.
She is 18 years younger to Trump, a former public prosecutor and not one who would be intimidated by his false truths in debates. Her campaign strategy would be simple, ‘prosecutor versus felon,’ seeking to continue highlighting Trump’s convictions.
While Trump has nominated his running mate, JD Vance, Kamala has yet to decide. This will be a priority as some states would be voting soon. She already has support from the African-American as also Indian-American communities.
Trump’s sympathy votes, on his alleged assassination attempt, would lose their impact by the time elections come about in November. The bandage on his ear, which reminds voters of the attempt on his life, would no longer be in place. The public has short memories and hence would have forgotten the assassination attempt. The resignation of the Secret Service director, Kimberly Cheatle, over her failure in Trump’s security, would put the matter to rest.
Trump would now shift focus from attacking Biden to degrading Harris. However, his major disadvantage is that most of his criminal cases involve women and if he makes derogatory comments against her and women in general, this could backfire. Caution has been imposed on him. The question remains on who would gain an upper hand, the prosecutor or the felon.
For many countries, an election victory for Trump would be advantageous, while for others it could spell disaster. Kamala is expected to toe Biden’s line on Ukraine, China and Iran but that is only an assessment as her specific views remain unknown. She has thus far adhered to whatever Biden followed. Her policy on Israel-Gaza may witness a change as she has been fairly vocal on the subject.
Netanyahu, while visiting the US met Trump, Biden and Kamala Harris. Israel is aware that Trump is their main backer as he had, in his previous tenure, shifted the US embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv, as also proposed a peace plan. As per Vox, Trump has been amongst the ‘most pro-Israel US Presidents.’
On the contrary Kamala Harris may be firmer with Israel. She is also a strong supporter of a two-state solution, which Israel is unwilling to accept. She told Netanyahu, ‘It is time for this war to end.’
Zelensky, the Ukrainian president spoke to Trump after his nomination. Trump mentioned, ‘I appreciate President Zelenskyy for reaching out. I will bring peace to the world and end the war that has cost so many lives and devastated countless innocent families. Both sides will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the violence and paves a path forward to prosperity.’ Zelensky would prefer victory of Kamala Harris, as it would ensure continuity in policies.
For NATO, Trump’s arrival could signal turmoil in an organization already facing challenges from the war in Ukraine. Trump is unlikely to continue funding the war and would push Zelensky for talks. He had posted on his Truth Social Network as the NATO summit was underway in Washington that ‘If it weren’t for me as President, there probably would be no NATO by now,’ adding most members ‘were delinquent, having paid very little.’ He also called out European nations to ‘at least equalize’ US spending on Ukraine.
For China, neither would be a good option. While Biden had maintained stability in ties, his strategy of countering China in the economic field has been effective. He successfully blocked China’s high-tech industry from gaining from the US. Kamala Harris is expected to toe the same line.
Trump’s unpredictability and exerting pressure on Beijing may impact ties in the short term. His imposing additional tariffs on Chinese products, in his previous tenure, did pay off. In his current campaign, he promised to raise duties on Chinese imports to 60%. In case, he moves against Europe, China may gain.
On Taiwan, it is unlikely that either side would permit China a free run, despite their views. For both, any Chinese operation on Taiwan would be a red-line, though Trump is a known ‘isolationist.’ Vance, Trump’s choice for Vice President, stated in an interview that China and not the Ukraine war was the major threat to the US. Hence, for China, no matter who wins, it will be ‘lose-lose.’
Kamala Harris’s policy on India underwent a change post her assuming the chair of Vice President. In 2019, as a senator, following the abrogation of article 370 she had mentioned, ‘We have to remind the Kashmiris that they are not alone in the world.’
As a Vice President, she has repeatedly raised her Indian roots. At a state luncheon, hosted for PM Modi, during his US visit, she thanked him for his ‘role of leadership to help India emerge as a global power in the 21st century.’ She is aware of common concerns on China and India being a US strategic partner.
Trump’s unpredictability makes it difficult to assess his intentions. A lot would depend on his advisors. In 2019, he had termed India as the ‘tariff king,’ and recently promised to impose counter tariffs. However, he would be aware of growing US-India ties and would continue to back them.
Internally, Trump would proceed against those who pushed for his conviction and trial. His vindictiveness is well known. How will this play out is to be seen.
The Presidential battle in the US is now hotting up. As time passes, the pendulum will continue shifting from one to the other. This is possibly the first time that both contenders are known devils.