Operation Sindoor: Indian Army is Well Poised to Defeat any Misadventure by Col Nilesh Kunwar (Retd)

Nine days after the gruesome massacre of 26 tourists in Pahalgam, J&K perpetrated by Pakistan sponsored terrorists, Pakistan army chief Gen Syed Asim Munir warned that “any military misadventure by India will be met with a swift, resolute and notch-up response.”

Coming close on the heels of the Indian Prime Minister’s public assurance that “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers [involved in the Pahalgam carnage],” Gen Munir’s announcement was obviously an attempt to put up a brave front while secretly hoping that the inevitable does not come to pass .

Less than a week after the Pakistan army chief’s threat, the Indian armed forces launched Operation Sindoor, raining down 24 precision guided missiles on nine terrorist centres, both in Pakistan occupied J&K [PoJK] and mainland Pakistan.

Amongst the terrorist facilities targeted was the Markaz Taiba camp in Muridke, which is the main terrorist training center of Lashkar-e-Taiba [LeT], and Markaz Subhanallah in Bahawalpur, the headquarters and main recruitment center of Jaish-e-Mohammad [JeM] terrorist group.

The significant losses suffered by terrorist groups and the Pakistan army’s failure to acquire early warning about this attack or intercept the missiles launched from Indian airspace despite having an elaborate air defence setup has come as a big embarrassment for Pakistan’s military establishment.

The army’s media wing Inter Services Public Relations [ISPR] has tried to play down the military’s monumental failure by falsely claiming that several Indian Air Force fighter jets have been shot down and heavy casualties had been inflicted on Indian soldiers along the Line of Control [LoC]. However, Gen Munir knows very well that since ISPR’s sham has limited shelf-life, he has to react and produce visible results to assuage public anger.

Furthermore, having pompously declared that if attacked, the Pakistan army will “not only defend every inch of our motherland, but to take the fight back to the enemy, Gen Munir has no other option but to retaliate in order to save face.

The Pakistan army’s reaction could take the shape of targeting Indian army’s field fortifications along in the Line of Control [LoC] with the aim of inflicting casualties and executing Border Action Team [BAT] operations by using a mix of commandos and terrorists to carry out hit and run attacks on Indian army posts and ambush patrols in forward areas.

The ISI will definitely try to escalate terrorist activities in the hinterland simultaneously so that a substantial number of down troops are committed on security related duties and hence are not available  for further augmenting the counter-infiltration grid or undertaking anti-terrorist operations. There’s also the likelihood of a marked increase in use of improvised explosive devices [IEDs] attacks against security force convoys, grenade attacks in crowded places and targeting security force personnel.

While this scenario may appear menacing, there’s no cause for worry because the Indian army is professionally competent and well equipped to effectively deal with these emerging threats. Another plus point is the Indian army’s proactive approach that puts the adversary on the back foot.

The Indian army has a significant qualitative and quantitative edge over the Pakistan army as far as availability of advanced weaponry and munitions along LoC is concerned. The fact that the Indian army has been inflicting inordinately heavy casualties on the Pakistani soldiers along the LoC is evident from the following:

• It was President Pervez Musharraf who in 2003 had mooted the idea of observing a ceasefire along the LoC. Coming from the Kargil War architect who had no love lost for India, this proposal was not influenced by a genuine desire for peace but to reduce the heavy casualties being suffered by the Pakistan army due to fire exchanges along the LoC.
• In 2017, Pakistan’s Senate was informed that the Pakistan army had refused to disclose the number of fatalities suffered by its rank and file deployed at the LoC due to firing by the Indian army. The reason given was that the Pakistan army didn’t want the “enemy” to know these details.

The counter-infiltration grid is effective and availability of sophisticated surveillance devices severely restricts scope of infiltration by terrorists into J&K. Similarly, units tasked for conducting anti-terrorist operations have an efficient intelligence base which is evident from the impressive success rate in eliminating /apprehending terrorists and over ground workers respectively.

So, should Gen Munir decide to escalate the situation, he would be doing so at his own peril!