Putin’s Korean googly confounds the west The Statesman 05 Nov 2024 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
Putin’s Korean googly confounds the west The Statesman 05 Nov 2024
NATO and Europe are crying hoarse about North Korean troops being deployed in Russia. As per the Pentagon, about 10000 North Korean troops are ready to be deployed in the warzone, most of whom are undergoing training in Russia. This would imply about one division strength. A few thousands have been observed in the Kursk region where Russia is fighting to push back Ukrainians who have entered the region in a surprise offensive in Aug this year. Ukraine’s top commander, General Oleksandr Syrskiy, mentioned recently that Ukraine is struggling to stem ‘one of the most powerful offensives’ by Russia.
The NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, mentioned, ‘The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security.’ NATO fears that despite all support the war will tilt in favour of Russia. The US believes it is a violation to UN resolutions as also an escalation in the conflict, however there is little it can do. There is no doubt that the presence of North Korean soldiers would benefit Moscow. Putin will not need to resort to additional mobilization to meet demands of the conflict, thereby saving the Kremlin from embarrassment.
Earlier there were reports of Iran providing missiles and UAVs to Russia as also North Korea providing it with artillery ammunition. President Putin, who had earlier denied such reports did not comment on the presence of North Korean soldiers, instead mentioning it was upto Russia to determine how to implement its ‘strategic partnership treaty’ with Pyongyang. In response, Ukraine has sought sanction of its backers to permit employment of weapons to target North Korean military camps in Russia, over which the west hesitates.
North Korea and Russia are currently the most sanctioned nations on the planet. As per the BBC the west along with its partners, Australia, South Korea and Japan, have imposed over 16,500 sanctions on Russia. About 50% of its total foreign exchange reserves and 70% of assets of its banks in western nations have been frozen. They claim that sanctions are impacting the Russian economy.
The UN has imposed massive sanctions on North Korea for its nuclear testing and firing of ballistic missiles, resulting in its isolation and humanitarian suffering. In March this year, Russia vetoed a UNSC resolution to extend the mandate of the Panel of Experts monitoring UN sanctions on North Korea. China and Russia have imposed selective UN sanctions, though they continue to maintain close ties with Pyongyang, as also provide it with aid.
In Jun this year, President Putin visited Pyongyang and inked a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership treaty.’ The same was endorsed by Russia’s lower house (Duma) on 24th Oct. The treaty mentions that either nation would provide military assistance employing ‘all means’ in case any of them is attacked. It was to fulfil its part of the treaty that North Korea provided 10,000 troops to Russia.
In return for military assistance, Russia is expected to provide weapon technology which could enhance Pyongyang’s ballistic missile and satellite capabilities, as also economic aid and cheap fuel. This would add to threats to its neighbours. Pyongyang recently tested its longest range intercontinental ballistic missile dubbed Hwasong-19. Russian support would worsen its ties with South Korea and Japan, though both have joined western sanctions against Moscow.
North Korea remains the world’s most reclusive authoritarian state, generally ignored, except when it conducts its nuclear or missile tests. The west was aware of the visit and the pact, however never acted to act to stall it. Increased Washington, Seoul and Tokyo security cooperation was seen as a threat to the survival of the Pyongyang regime.
Kim Jong UN has been globally ignored with few attempts to engage with it or manage its concerns. Putin exploited this fear and insecurity existing within North Korean leaders to his advantage. The Russian veto in the UNSC against North Korean sanctions worked in his favour.
The presence of North Korean troops would confirm the existence of the alliance between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. This will be a major challenge to US led domination, especially in SE Asia. The treaty will guarantee the survival of the Pyongyang regime as Russia is now its security partner.
However, Beijing which has been treating Pyongyang as its satellite state would now have to deal with the fact that Russia and North Korea are now close allies. An added fear is that this pact may bring the US, South Korea and Japan closer, something China does not desire. The future would depend on who comes to the White House next.
For the west, which was hoping to exploit the war to degrade Russia’s military capabilities, the move has come as a surprise, not that it was unexpected. It opens doors for increased Russian assaults on Ukrainian positions. The war, which was progressing slowly would now move at a faster pace, as Russia has additional trained troops to push onto the battlefield. How technologically capable are North Korean troops is unknown.
NATO, which is concerned about the arrival of North Korean troops can do little. Employing its own forces, inviting Ukraine to join the organization or permitting Ukraine to hit Russia deep could result in an escalation which it seeks to avoid. The west could have considered talks to end the war, over which it hesitates. India has all along been insisting on dialogue, which was ignored by the west. Russia too had been hinting on talks to diffuse the situation, which was also discarded.
While US elections could change the scenario, the emergence of North Korean troops has placed Putin at an advantage. Terms and conditions of Moscow in any future dialogue can no longer be bypassed, despite tall claims by Zelensky, the Ukrainian president. How would North Korean troops perform in a technology dominated battlefield is to be seen, however, it is expected that Russia would mix them with its own forces to ensure they are not overawed by technology dominated weapons.
Ignoring North Korea over the years and applying continuous pressure, hoping for a regime change has been exploited by Moscow. Now all that the west can do is limit the damage. Further sanctions will do little to change the scenario.