Russia’s information war will succeed The Statesman 06 Jan 2026
https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4102533/Kolkata-The-Statesman/06-TH-JANUARY-2026#page/9/2
Russia’s information war will succeed The Statesman 06 Jan 2026
Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, recently stated that Ukraine had targeted President Vladimir Putin’s residence with drones but it was thwarted. He mentioned that 91 drones were brought down, adding, ‘retaliatory targets have been selected,’ threatening continuation of conflict. Moscow also announced it would not cancel ongoing discussions however, ‘Russia’s negotiating position will be revised.’
The Russian announcement was made while Trump-Zelensky discussions on the US proposed peace plan were ongoing in Florida. Zelensky denied Ukraine launched the attack and termed the accusation as ‘typical Russian lies.’
Trump meanwhile claimed he had a positive conversation with Putin, just prior to commencement of talks with Zelensky. On the drone strike he stated, ‘I don’t like it. It’s not good.’ Trump did initially accept the Russian version, however, appeared to change his views post a briefing by the CIA, mentioning ‘it (Russia) is the one standing in the way of peace’. Europe supports Ukraine and hence termed Russian claims as fake.
PM Modi supported the Russian accusation by tweeting, ‘Deeply concerned by reports of the targeting of the residence of the President of the Russian Federation. Ongoing diplomatic efforts offer the most viable path toward ending hostilities and achieving peace.’
The Ukrainian foreign ministry responded immediately to PM Modi and other world leaders who criticized the attack, tweeting, ‘We were disappointed and concerned to see statements expressing concerns regarding the attack that never happened.’ Hundreds of pro-Ukrainian handles joined in accusing PM Modi of being selective by not criticizing Russian drone strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine as also backing fake news.
Ukraine demanded proof, which Russia initially refused to provide. The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned, ‘thanks to the well-coordinated work of the air defence system, (all drones) were shot down.’ Subsequently, a member of the Russian intelligence directorate handed over evidence of drones involved in the strike to a member of the US military attaches’ office. In fog of war, it is difficult to verify such claims. Both sides are expected to stick to their stands.
Ukraine possesses a history of targeting deep within Russia, in cases causing civilian casualties, while insisting it only engages military installations. It has been accused of conducting assassinations of senior Russian military personnel as also explosions resulting in civilian casualties. Recently Russia accused Kiev of killing 24 New Year revellers in occupied Kherson region.
In 2023, two Ukrainian drones struck the roof of the Kremlin, however caused no damage. In Jun last year, Ukraine launched its audacious Operation Spider Web, wherein 117 drones were smuggled into Russia, concealed beneath retractable roofs of vehicles, transported to locations close to military bases and piloted remotely to hit strategic, nuclear-capable bombers, deep inside Russia.
Simultaneously, Russia has been targeting Ukrainian government and private building alongside critical infrastructure; while claiming it only strikes military installations. It has also struck hospitals and schools. Civilian casualties are reported in each strike. Moscow occupied Crimea employing special forces, while terming them locals.
Both sides have caused civilian casualties, either intentionally or as collateral damage.
The entire episode of the attack on Putin’s residence is a classic case of information warfare launched by Russia, which neither side can prove but can exploit. What adds credence to the Russian claim is that barely a few days ago, Zelensky, in his Christmas message, had wished death for Putin. Russia’s accusations forced Ukraine to defend itself.
Geopolitically too there is a shift. Nations, including India and China, commenting on the strike, indicate that Russia is neither alone nor can it be isolated nor ignored.
However, for sides involved in the conflict, this information warfare narrative has different implications. Trump had claimed, post his talks with Zelensky, that almost 95% of his peace plan had been accepted by Ukraine, but the attack moves everything back by a few steps. Trump could face stumbling blocks in his peace plan and his best option would be to compel Ukraine to agree to most of the terms.
Russia would benefit in delaying talks, while Ukraine, if targeted by Russia in counter strikes, would demand further guarantees.
Russia believes it is winning the war and can insist on its conditions being met for concluding the conflict. The Russian spokesperson mentioned, ‘This terrorist action is aimed at collapsing the negotiation process,’ adding, ‘The diplomatic consequence will be to toughen the negotiating position of the Russian Federation.’
In all probability, Russia will want to restrict US guarantees for Ukraine as also insist on removal of Zelensky. It could also continue with the conflict till it reduces manoeuvre space for Zelensky as also Europe. There are reports that Russia is already expanding operations to create buffer zones for protection of its own populace.
Zelensky faces US backlash for corruption and hanging onto power, without conducting elections. In case Russia escalates, it provides an excuse to prolong negotiations, delay elections and continue garnering funds. It is to delay accepting Trump’s peace plan that after every discussion with the US, Zelensky engages in dialogue with his European colleagues, who have an opposing view, hoping they can apply pressure on Trump, which has thus far not worked.
Trump appears to have seen through the Ukrainian strategy. Understanding that the Russian threat of continuing operations is real, his only option is to push Ukraine to accept most of his and indirectly Russian demands. Zelensky would have limited choice.
For Europe, expansion of the war by Russia suits them. After all, they have invested heavily into arming Ukraine and if Trump’s peace conditions go through, their funding would be a waste. For present governments in Europe, to justify to their electorate that despite arming Ukraine, by cutting down on own social and developmental projects, Ukraine has been forced to cede territory, is difficult. Current European governments would face backlash in forthcoming elections. However, it is unlikely that Trump would listen to their pleading.
While truth behind the Russian claim nor why has it been raised with such ferocity may never be known, however Moscow’s threat to expand the conflict in retaliation, is real. Currently it is Moscow applying pressure on Trump to find a solution as cards are in Putin’s favour. Zelensky will be sacrificed and forced to accept most of Putin’s demands. Moscow’s information warfare will work to its advantage.