Security implications of the Hasina verdict The Statesman 25 Nov 2025

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Security implications of the Hasina verdict The Statesman 25 Nov 2025

          Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) sentenced its former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal to death, in absentia, after finding them guilty of crimes against humanity, during the student led protests of Jul-Aug last year. Official records mention that over 1400 were killed and thousands injured during the riots. Former police chief Chowdhury Abdullah Al-Mamun, who turned approver in the case, was given a jail term of five years. Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee to India in August last year and has remained here since.

          While the judgement was met with cheers and jubilation by those who were anti-Hasina including the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and its associates, as also the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party), there were protests by members of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, as they termed the trial and its judgement as political vendetta. Even Sheikh Hasina made similar comments. The process adopted by the ICT raised doubts about the fairness of their judgement.

          Amnesty International, which at one time had demanded action against those behind the deaths in the protests, now questioned the manner in which the trial was conducted. A statement issued by Amnesty mentions, ‘this trial has been conducted before a court that Amnesty International has long criticized for its lack of independence and history of unfair proceedings. Further, the unprecedented speed of this trial in absentia and verdict raises significant fair trial concerns for a case of this scale and complexity.’

It is also possible that the death penalty was in retaliation to the execution of a number of members of the JeI for ‘genocide and crimes against humanity committed while collaborating with Pakistani forces during the 1971 Liberation War,’ by the same ICT, albeit with different members. 

          India has been cautious in its response. The MEA mentioned in a statement, ‘As a close neighbour, India remains committed to the best interests of the people of Bangladesh, including in peace, democracy, inclusion and stability in that country. We will always engage constructively with all stakeholders to that end.’ It is aware that demands for her extradition would now increase and it has. The world has largely ignored the verdict, other than the UN which reiterated its opposition to the death penalty.

          The Bangladesh foreign office spokesperson mentioned, ‘We call upon the Government of India to hand over these two persons to the authorities in Bangladesh without further delay. This is also a responsibility for India according to the existing extradition treaty between the two sides.’ India has not responded to demands by Bangladesh. It is also possible that the subject would have been discussed in the meeting between the two National Security Advisors on the sidelines of the Colombo Security Conclave recently.  

While an extradition treaty does exist between New Delhi and Dacca, there is a clause mentioning that extradition can be refused if the accused proves that the charges are ‘not made in good faith, politically motivated or if the person risks persecution.’ Evidently, this is the scenario in the current case. The extradition process, even if commenced, is itself lengthy requiring review of tribunal documents to ensure due procedure, fair representation, and credible testimony.

          The ICT judgement ensures that her role as also that of her party currently in Bangladesh is over. The Bangladesh interim government is also working to change history by reducing the role of Mujibur Rehman and his party in the fight for independence in 1971. Monuments dedicated to Sheikh Mujibur Rehman are being destroyed as also his contribution is being rewritten in history books.

          Meanwhile Bangladesh is moving closer to Pakistan, thereby increasing anti-India sentiments within. Visits by Pak armed forces delegations as also members of Pakistan based terrorist groups to Bangladesh are on the rise. Within India the initiation of SIR (Special Intensive Revision) of electoral rolls, largely in West Bengal, has led to many Bangladeshis seeking to return to their country. This adds to the anti-India sentiment.

          There are already links emerging from Bangladesh in the recent Red Fort blasts. A virtual meeting conducted by a leading member of the LeT from Pakistan, prior to the blasts, had seven participants from Bangladesh in attendance, including one from their government and others from the JeI. Further there are reports of some of the substance used in the blasts may have come from Bangladesh.

Indian intelligence authorities are also investigating students who have studied abroad, including Bangladesh. There are possibilities of some being influenced to join terrorist groups. These concerns never existed earlier, when India and Bangladesh cooperated on multiple security subjects.

          As India delays the extradition, political parties in Bangladesh, in run up to forthcoming polls, would play the anti-India card, resulting in targeting of their minority communities. They would accuse India of being the big brother protecting Sheikh Hasina from justice. Any protests or violence by the Awami League would be blamed on the presence of Sheikh Hasina in India. No matter which political party gains power in Dacca (BNP or the JeI), the anti-India sentiment would continue.

          Any future Bangladesh government would have extradition of Sheikh Hasina as a primary demand, which India would not fulfil, though the subject may be discussed. This will impact ties. Further, as long as Sheikh Hasina remains free in India and no restrictions are placed on her, she possesses the ability to influence Bangladesh by inciting violence.

While her supporters would desire her to continue being in India, her opponents would demand her extradition. Governments in Bangladesh would place her extradition as a primary condition for normalizing ties. As a counter to violence and protests led by the Awami League, there could be support to terrorist groups operating in the North East as also Bangladesh could become a conduit for movement of terrorists and bomb making material to India.

The Bangladesh army has thus far remained neutral. However, with time, the influence of the JeI could increase. There are already reports emerging of some senior members of the army preferring closer cooperation with Pakistan, rather than India.

While diplomacy would manage the fallout of the verdict, security agencies need to be prepared for an increased anti-India sentiment as also support to terrorist and insurgent groups. India has rightly enhanced its security by creating new military bases close to the Bangladesh border. These need to be strengthened and cooperation between security and intelligence agencies increased.