Taming Trump Why India-EU trade deal matters strategically too First Post 20 Jan 2026

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/india-eu-trade-deal-trump-greenland-strategy-13970591.html

Taming Trump: Why India-EU trade deal matters strategically too First Post 20 Jan 2026

          After success in Venezuela, failure in resolving the Russo-Ukraine conflict, stalling strikes in Iran, Trump is turning his attention to annexing Greenland. His belief is that Greenland, which controls routes to the Arctic, is now in crosshairs of Russia and China and could be taken over by them, if the US does not act first, a claim which is difficult to believe. Both Russia and China have countered by mentioning they have no interest in Greenland. An added reason for Trump’s interest could be resources which the region possesses, which would benefit them and reduce its global dependency.

Trump is backed in his views by his close advisors as also members of his party in both houses. Post his demand for annexation of Greenland, the US Secretary of State, Marc Rubio, held a discussion with his counterparts from Denmark and Greenland. This was inconclusive, after which Trump toughened his stand. 

          Trump considered purchasing Greenland from Denmark, but this does not appear to be working out. Both, Denmark and the government of Greenland, have turned down any offer of making it the US’s fifty-first state. Denmark has also warned that any US action to militarily annex Greenland would mean the end of NATO. The reality is that Greenland has become a bone of contention between the US and his European allies in NATO.

          To push his plan, Trump threatened tariffs on European nations which stand in his way of annexing Greenland. He tweeted that he would be imposing an additional 10% tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, the Netherlands and Finland commencing on 01 Feb. These would be increased to 25% from 01 Jun in case no deal is concluded.

Europe had reluctantly accepted 15% tariffs from the US, while charging zero percent to many US products, solely to maintain the transatlantic alliance. It is unlikely to accept an additional 10%. It would prefer negotiations but is also willing to counter. How would the US also implement tariffs to select nations within the EU is unknown, especially as the continent is one entity and there are nations, part of the EU, maintaining silence on Greenland.

          It is not that the US has no military access to Greenland. As per a 1951 agreement the US had bases in Greenland but over the years reduced troop deployment in the region. In the early fifties, the US held 17 bases with thousands of troops which has shrunk to one base currently. Its base is at Pituffik in the Northwestern part of the island hosting about 200 troops. It has missile warning, missile defence and space surveillance systems.

It has been the US which has reduced its force levels in Greenland voluntarily, not under pressure. If the US already has an agreement on bases on Greenland, why does it desire its annexation, remains unanswered. It could ideally discuss redeployment of troops and not annexation.

The US interest is more towards minerals found on the island. As per a 2023 survey, 25 out of 34 minerals discovered in Greenland are ‘critical raw materials.’ For the indigenous Greenlandic Inuit, extracting of minerals is unacceptable, a reason why they have not been touched. The US may not adhere to their customs.    

In response to the US threat of annexation, European nations symbolically participated in exercises with Denmark in Greenland. France sent 15 soldiers, Germany 13, while Norway and Sweeden also participated. The nations termed these troops as reconnaissance elements, but they were more a sign of solidarity. It was this solidarity against the US which added to Trump’s anger.

Europe, for once is displaying spine and standing tall to US threats. French President Emmanuel Macron stated, ‘Tariff threats are unacceptable in this context… We will not be swayed by any intimidation.’ He added that Europe must activate its powerful ‘anti-coercion instrument’ implying curbing imports of goods and services from the US. Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson mentioned, ‘We won’t let ourselves be blackmailed.’ European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted, ‘Territorial integrity and sovereignty are fundamental principles of international law.’ Will Europe continue to display this unity is to be seen.

Russia is adding to the confusion by playing one side versus the other in its game of narratives. Russian presidential envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, warned Europe that it should not ‘provoke their daddy,’ hinting at NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte addressing Trump as ‘daddy’ during a NATO summit last year, where Trump chastised both, Iran and Israel, for violating a US brokered ceasefire. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev posted on X, ‘What (will they) do?! … Nuke the U.S.? They’ll just s*** their pants and give up Greenland.’

Europe cannot be seen as bending to Trump based on Russian comments despite it weakening NATO. No wonder Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign affairs chief stated on X, ‘China and Russia must be having a field day.’

If Trump uses military force to take over Greenland, he legalizes hostile takeover of territories. This will justify Russian annexation of Crimea as also of lands it controls in Ukraine and China in its future attempt to take over Taiwan, all on grounds of national security. Simultaneously, it is fracturing the one institution which has stood together since the second world war, NATO. There is also no doubt that a weak NATO, as also a fractured relationship between Europe and the US would benefit Russia, especially as the Ukraine war continues.  

Trump has played the tariff card once too often. Some nations have bent, while few, like India and China, have stood their ground. They have retaliated to the tariffs in their own silent way. India hit back by imposing 30% tariffs on US pulse crops from 01 Nov last year forcing senators to write to Trump on this. China has yet to import US agricultural products. Europe has now begun displaying its intent. Unless it stands firm, it will continue being bullied by Trump, who only understands strength.   

It could also be that Trump is pressurizing Europe because of Ukraine. It is Europe which is standing alongside Zelensky against US pressures, forcing Trump to comment, ‘I think Ukraine is less ready to make a deal.’ Greenland is just an excuse, while the target is to get Europe to back down from supporting Ukraine by imposing tariffs. Trump is aware that Europe does not possess the ability to defend itself and needs US backing.

Trump has also begun believing he is God and can take what he wants as also punish whomsoever he wants with tariffs, especially after his success in Venezuela. If he has to be stopped, then Europe must stand together and not bend like they have been doing. India and China are two nations they need to emulate.

The Indo-EU trade deal, likely to inked in the coming days, following the EU-Mercosur (comprising of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) trade agreement would be gamechangers and could counter Trump’s attempts to pressurize Europe into towing his line based on increased tariffs.