The burning Middle East ETv Bharat 17 Jun 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
https://www.etvbharat.com/en/!opinion/the-burning-middle-east-enn25061606094
The burning Middle East ETv Bharat 17 Jun 2025
Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, under Operation Rising Lion and retaliation by Iran under Operation True Promise 3, have added fuel to an already burning Middle East cauldron. Israel commenced the operations by targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, its senior military officials and scientists. It employed around 200 aircraft, which fired a multitude of munitions, hitting approximately 100 nuclear and strategic assets. This was the largest attack ever launched by Israel against any nation.
Israel released inputs that Operation Rising Lion, in the pipeline for some time, included some aspects similar to Operation Spider Web, launched by Ukraine in Russia. Ukraine employed drones launched from within Russian soil, from vehicles specially modified and moved deep within the country, engaging strategic airfields, bypassing air defences, damaging Russia’s prized assets.
Israel in a similar manner created bases within Iran with drones and missiles to hit their key assets, including radar and missile sites coinciding with strikes launched by its aircraft. Israeli missiles and drones had been smuggled into Iran over a period of time and operated by its MOSSAD agents, who had infiltrated into the country for this mission.
Iran admitted deaths of multiple senior military officers and nuclear scientists. It is assessed that they did not expect a strike and its senior officials were not present in designated bunkers but at home, enabling Israel to achieve surprise, despite hints of an impending attack. The US had reduced the strength of its embassies in Iraq and other places in the Middle East anticipating reprisal from Iran, but the same was ignored by Iranian intelligence.
The strikes had the backing and support of the US, despite the same being denied by them. Trump stated post the strikes, ‘We, of course, support Israel, obviously and supported it like nobody has ever supported it.’
With Syria now on the side of the US post the overthrow of the Assad regime, Houthi’s being targeted relentlessly by the US and Israel as also Hamas and Hezbollah military power severely depleted, Iran was now exposed. Iran’s proxies no longer possess power to act as its first line of defence. Russia, a known ally would have been taken into confidence by the US. Multiple sanctions had also dented the Iranian economy. Iran was isolated and a perfect target.
In Israel, its PM Benjamin Netanyahu barely survived a political crisis calling for dissolution of parliament and immediate elections. Religious political parties which had threatened to withdraw support voted in his favour. Netanyahu has avoided being charged by Israeli courts for corruption due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Iran’s retaliation will provide him with more reasons for delaying the inevitable. In case Israel manages to force Iran onto the bargaining table, Netanyahu gains politically.
Iran and Israel are sworn enemies. Pakistan is the only other nation in the region which refuses to recognize Israel. It has repeatedly been criticizing Israel’s actions in Gaza as also its attacks on Iran. It recently threatened to attack Israel if it employed nuclear weapons against Iran. The only topic of resonance between Iran and Pakistan during the recent visit of PM Shehbaz Sharief to Tehran was Israel. Nations of the Middle East maintained neutrality.
The truth about how close was Iran to producing a nuclear weapon is unknown. The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) had a day before the Israeli strikes mentioned that Tehran was not complying with its non-proliferation obligations as also passed a resolution on the same. It never mentioned how close was Iran to producing nuclear weapons. It prompted an immediate response from Iran which mentioned, ‘As we have previously stated, the Islamic Republic of Iran has no choice but to respond to this political resolution.’
Tehran believes that this resolution was done to justify a pre-planned Israeli action. It also announced that it has built and will activate a third nuclear enrichment facility. Within Iran, the leadership called for national unity. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian mentioned, ‘I ask the entire nation to maintain their unity… at the same time to trust the officials,’ promising a ‘tough, rational and powerful response.’ Iran has officially declared war on Israel.
As expected, Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones against Israel, most of which were intercepted while some reached their objectives. The Israeli Iron Dome, US ground and ship-based Patriot anti-missile system and the THAD worked in unison to destroy Iranian launched weapon systems. Yet Iran achieved some degree of success, implying that no air defence system in the world is perfect.
Despite all claims there were civilian casualties in strikes by both sides. Since Iran and Israel do not have a common border, non-kinetic operations is the option. While Israel has a powerful air force, Iran’s power lies in its missiles and drones. Even with its depleted air defence measures, Iran claims to have downed a few Israeli aircraft including the famed F 35’s, though this has not been formally confirmed.
US involvement was evident when Trump tweeted post the strikes, ‘There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left.’ Silence from Middle East nations indicates that despite maintaining diplomatic relations with Iran, they were uncomfortable with its nuclear program.
Both the US and Israel have begun addressing the Iranian public, hoping to push them to initiate a regime change by internal unrest. It is unlikely that the populace, despite disliking its ruling dispensation, will be willing to rise in revolt on the back of an insult.
Added would be anger based on civilian casualties caused by Israeli strikes. The narrative which will be played out by the Iranian regime would be victory over Israel with their media displaying successful strikes resulting in destruction of key Israeli assets as also civilian casualties as retaliation. No nation has announced any conditions for termination of hostilities.
Iran may gain some sympathy from China and Russia but none would intervene. The statement released by the SCO, criticizing Israel, is an indicator, though India refused to endorse it. Pakistan is aware that it remains the only sworn enemy of Israel with nuclear weapons. It has heightened security of its nuclear installations, aware that it could be the next target.
The Israelis would have studied Operation Sindoor and determined the vulnerability of Pakistan’s nuclear assets. There are reports that Pakistan shared advance information on Israeli strikes while providing inputs on Iran to the US, playing both sides.
The operations are ongoing, one depending on accuracy of airstrikes, the other on the power of its missiles. Both would continue targeting the other for the next few days. Neither will likely be willing to pull back. It is difficult to find a negotiator to bring both or the US and Iran onto the table. Trump, once again offered to negotiate, aware his words are hollow.
It is possible that over the next few days, once Israel realizes that it has achieved its objectives of halting or slowing the Iranian nuclear program that it would reduce its strikes. Iran would subsequently follow suit. The reality would never be truly known.
The other option is employing a third party to convey a message of halting operations. It has been reported by Cyprus that it has been approached by Iran to request Israel to stop the strikes, though formally denied by Tehran. No nation wants to be the first to take this step, fearing internal dissent. The state of war, which exists at present will remain. Both will claim victory.
However, threats for Israel are unlikely to recede, in case it fails in its regime change plans or destroy Iran’s nuclear weapon development capability. The current Iranian regime would move rapidly to build nuclear weapons, aware that it is the sole guarantor against future strikes. This is where monitoring Pakistan is essential to prevent leaks. It is known for selling nuclear secrets, especially that it is now near bankrupt.