The spectacle in Washington was expected The Excelsior 07 Mar 2025
The spectacle in Washington was expected The Excelsior 07 Mar 2025
Differences in US-Ukraine as also US-Europe relations was evident since Trump entered the White House. The first signal was in the UN General Assembly where resolutions marking the Ukraine war were passed. The US voted, alongside Russia, against the Ukrainian resolution accusing Moscow of initiating the attack in 2022. Washington subsequently abstained from a resolution it had itself floated, calling for peace while adopting a neutral stance, solely because it was amended by EU nations, led by France and the UK. This was passed with just 93 votes, a rather poor number for the UN.
The US then floated its original resolution in the Security Council (UNSC), which was unanimously passed. The UNSC resolution is the only binding one amongst all. France and UK quietly voted in favour of the US in the UNSC. While outwardly they display displeasure towards Trump’s policies, inwardly they are aware they have little influence.
Trump, throughout his campaigning insisted he could stop the war in his first few days in office. He continuously praised Putin while criticizing US funding for Ukraine, claiming it was a waste. In his opinion, this was a war which should never have commenced. He believed Zelensky was milking the US.
40 leaders, including heads of state and organizations, from Europe and elsewhere, less the US, joined Ukraine in displaying solidarity on the third anniversary of the war. The absence of the US, for the first time, cast a doubt on its stance on the conflict. Trump demanded that Zelensky sign of rare earth minerals to the US as payment for support provided. Zelensky was seeking US guarantee for its survival, which Trump was wont to provide.
The above combined were pre-indicators on what could happen when Trump and Zelensky met in Washington. Neither side displayed patience and maturity in their meeting. The disastrous encounter has possibly ended US support, military, intelligence and economic. The mineral deal, has not been inked. Europe support to Ukraine, in his clash with Trump, displayed the trans-Atlantic divide within NATO.
Putin, countering Ukraine, mentioned Russia was willing to work with ‘foreign partners’ including US companies, on mining minerals in both Russia and ‘new territories,’ implying occupied parts of Ukraine. The message was clear, Russia will not return what it currently controls, while pushing the US to accept the same. The EU, in a challenge to the US, has offered a counter deal to Ukraine terming it as ‘mutually beneficial’ and ‘win-win for both sides.’ However, EU cannot offer security that Ukraine needs to survive.
After three years the war is at a stalemate. Russia holds roughly 18 to 20% of Ukrainian territory but can never hope to subdue Kiev. Ukraine, despite all funding, intelligence and military equipment from the west, can never recover territory lost nor can it bring Russia to the negotiating table on its own. Ukraine’s gains in Kursk will only enable some bargaining. The war will grind on, neither side the winner, however would continue being a blessing for defence manufacturers at the cost of tax payers.
The war could have ended long back had it not been for NATO. Pushing Ukraine to walk out of peace talks in Ankara in Apr 2022 was the turning point. The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, mentioned last week, ‘In Istanbul we were one hour away from signing a peace agreement, but Boris Johnson banned Ukraine from doing that.’ The end result is hundreds of thousands of lives lost, cities destroyed and millions migrated. All because NATO believed it could humiliate Putin.
Donald Trump commenced direct talks with Russia, ignoring Ukraine and Europe, building the scenario for peace. US negotiators are new appointees, while Lavrov is well experienced, having been at his post for decades. He is moving slowly as Putin is in no hurry to conclude the conflict, while Trump is keen to display his intent. Moscow is aware that they hold the cards.
Trump’s intent is to draw Russia away from China and Iran. China needs Russia to counter the US as it faces a hostile Washington. Iran needs Russia to ward off an Israel-US threat. Xi spoke to Putin while western leaders assembled in Kiev. As per reports Xi mentioned, ‘History and reality show that China and Russia are good neighbours that cannot be moved away, and true friends who share weal and woe.’ It is Putin, once a pariah, now in demand. Tables have turned.
It is known that China-Russia relations are one of convenience, not of ideology. Russian concerns include growing Chinese immigration into East Russia as also increasing influence within the Central Asian Republics, all of whom are members of the Russia led Collective Security Treaty Organization. However, focussed on Ukraine, it has to turn a blind eye to Chinese advances.
Resolving Ukraine could enable Moscow to concentrate elsewhere. Hence Putin is not seeking just a ceasefire but a long-term solution eliminating future conflicts. However, Zelensky is hesitant to end the conflict on terms other than his, which include return of all Ukrainian territory as also compensation for war damages.
Russian terms were announced by Putin in Jun 2024, ‘Ukraine should adopt a neutral, nonaligned status, be nuclear-free, and undergo demilitarization and denazification.’ He also demanded that Ukraine ‘cede the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Provinces,’ implying Russia will also not return territory captured from Ukraine including Crimea.
For the US, the dilemma was how much could it push Russia to cede. Drawing Russia away from China and Iran benefits its long-term plans. Simultaneously is concern over Russian demands on demilitarization of Ukraine. The nation must possess the ability to defend itself. In case this is not accepted then its future could be at the mercy of Russia.
Europe, is a has been power. This was the message which Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of defence, and JD Vance conveyed in their recent interactions in Europe. All European verbal support and agreements with Ukraine mean little. Europe cannot deploy forces to assist Ukraine, nor fund it sufficiently. European nations are still unable to enhance their own defence spending, supporting Ukraine is far-fetched.
In such a scenario, Zelensky will have to ultimately bend before Trump. It may not be immediate but will happen shortly. Ukraine has no choice.