Trump administration views a different globe The Excelsior 18 Feb 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
Trump administration views a different globe The Excelsior 18 Feb 2025
Trump’s team has vastly different strategies for dealing with growing global complexities as compared to previous US administrations. This is pronounced by the manner in which it is approaching current threats, evolving future scenarios, as also changing alliances. There is also no doubt that its actions are causing turmoil in minds of friends, allies and adversaries alike.
On one hand is Donald Trump himself, pushing his tariff strategy hitting all, partners, allies and adversaries, in equal measure. Trump tasked his Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, to ‘develop custom tariffs for each country, taking into account features such as their existing tariffs, exchange rates, trade balances and other rules.’
He added, ‘If you build your product in the United States, there are no tariffs,’ copying PM Modi’s make in India initiative. Trump had threatened tariffs well before he became President on the belief that nations were exploiting the US. However, these have an added intent.
Future tariffs are in addition to already announced tariffs for Canada, Mexico and China. While he has temporarily suspended tariffs against Canada and Mexico, they remain against China. His tariffs compelled Canada and Mexico to bend, while nations in South America accepted their illegal immigrants, after some hesitation. China launched counter tariffs on low-level items, aware that the battle on tariffs has just commenced and it would face more in the near future.
Major regions of the globe, including Europe, are vary of what the US would do in terms of tariffs to them. The EU had already formed a team to evaluate possible tariffs which might be imposed. Jean-Luc Demarty, who headed the EU’s trade department during Trump’s first term mentioned, ‘Especially with a personality like Trump, if we don’t react, he’ll trample us. We have all the instruments and we must react effectively on principle.’ The EU is working on a ‘firm and proportionate’ response to any tariffs which Trump may impose.
Aware that the growing proximity of China and Russia will be a major threat for US power, Trump began working on handling that relationship, on the pretext of ending the Ukraine war. The US administration is aware that this alliance is largely one of convenience rather than ideology, formed due to ill-handling of Putin by the previous administration, and can be distanced.
Moscow dislikes being the junior partner to Beijing but currently has limited options. By separating the two, the US hopes to be able to contain a rising China in the Indo-Pacific. Trump considers Russia a lesser threat and evil as compared to China.
By drawing Russia closer, would also add to US efforts of isolating Iran and North Korea, both of whom remain nations of concern. North Korea already possesses nuclear weapons and Iran is close to developing its own. Once isolated, Iran would be handled by sanctions as also Israel may be permitted to target Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran is already weakened by the near collapse of Hamas and Hezbollah as also the Assad regime. North Korea could be checkmated by added sanctions as also drawing Russia away.
Further, the US is unconvinced, unlike Europe, that Russia intents to invade Europe and challenge NATO. Trump believes that Russia has limited territorial aims in Ukraine, which it has largely accomplished, including preventing the expansion of NATO, all of which can be accepted. Hence, US has ruled out admission of Ukraine into NATO.
Trump’s conversations with Putin possibly resulting in talks over Ukraine aimed at resolving the dispute in favour of Moscow, despite objections of Europe and Ukraine, will bring Moscow closer to Washington, distancing it from Beijing. Not only Trump but also the US Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, has repeatedly stated that Ukraine cannot hope to regain territory it has lost since 2014. He clarified to European leaders that Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO.
Trump has also announced a likely summit with Putin in Riyadh, dates of which have yet to be announced. Adding is US intent to cut down military aid to Kiev, forcing Zelensky to meet terms laid down by the US. The Trump administration is aware that Europe alone cannot support Zelensky. By distancing itself from the conflict, it will compel Kiev to accept its terms.
This meets Russian demands and would signal acceptance from Putin. Added has been the announcement that European nations must cater for their own security and must enhance their defence budgets to 5%. The message to Russia is that Europe or even NATO has no interest in threatening it. For Europe, the signal is that Russia should not be assumed as a threat. Post resolution of the conflict, Trump may even lift majority sanctions on Moscow. He has already announced his intent of bringing Russia back into the G7, making it into the earlier G8.
Simultaneously, the US has announced its intent to concentrate its military efforts in the Indo-Pacific. This was the message conveyed by the first interaction which the new administration had which was the QUAD. Offering F 35’s to India to strengthen its armed forces is another signal that the US is attempting to enhance ties with nations which consider China a threat.
Trump’s concept on the Middle East conflict is that since the battleground is Gaza, it should not belong to any warring side but neutral US. While his plan has been currently rejected by Arab states, counter proposals may follow, which could include governance, development and management all aimed at keeping Hamas at bay. Thus, in the long term, US ally, Israel, would be the dominant power managing the region on behalf of the US.
Trump’s current team, Secretary of State, Marc Rubio, and NSA, Mike Waltz, are profoundly anti-China and believe in continuing arms supplies to Taiwan. To add to ambiguity, Trump has made no mention of his Taiwan policy in case China invades the island. Simultaneously it hopes to strengthen AUKUS (Australia, UK and US alliance) as also the QUAD. It would also attempt to form an alliance involving South Korea and Japan. This will enhance security in the Indo-Pacific intending to keep the Chinese at bay.
All this in under a month of Trump’s presidency. What the future entails is still unknown.