Trump and India The Excelsior 19 Dec 2025
Trump and India The Excelsior 19 Dec 2025
The recent tele-conversation between PM Modi and US President Donald Trump came while Trump was contemplating increasing tariffs on India for supposedly ‘dumping’ Indian rice in US markets, pushing down prices of local varieties. The topics discussed between them included bilateral trade and cooperation in energy, security and defence. The conversation happened while the US negotiation team was in India for continuing trade talks.
In a round table discussion at the White House last week while unveiling a USD 12 Billion bailout package for US farmers, Trump mentioned, ‘Give me the countries (exporting rice to the US)? India, who else?’ Simultaneously, USs Trade Representative Jamieson Greer mentioned at a Congress hearing that they have received ‘the best ever’ trade deal from India.
India’s rice exports to the US comprises largely of Basmati rice. In terms of quantity, it was about 2.35 lakh quintals in 2024, just 5% of India’s global exports. India exports largely to the Middle East. Indian rice faces 25% tariffs in the US. Any additional tariffs will impact trade discussions.
Pakistan, on the other hand, exports 80,000 tons of Basmati to the US, which it hopes to increase to 1 Lakh tons this year exploiting higher tariffs on India. Pak has 19% tariffs. Trump specifically chose to name India, ignoring others. While India holds 26% of the US Basmati market, Pakistan holds 9%, the balance being shared by other SE Asian nations.
The USs recently released National Security Strategy (NSS) terms China as a peer with whom rebalancing of economic ties is essential, a difference from the past where it was an adversary. China remains India’s major adversary. The reason why the US avoids sanctioning China for procuring Russian oil is its blackmail on exports of rare earths.
However, the NSS stuck to its position on Taiwan by stating, ‘Deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority. We will also maintain our longstanding declaratory policy on Taiwan, meaning that the United States does not support any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.’
India was mentioned as an ally as also a member of the QUAD (comprising of Australia, Japan, India and the US). The NSS mentioned, ‘We must continue to improve commercial (and other) relations with India to encourage New Delhi to contribute to Indo-Pacific security, including through continued cooperation with the ‘Quad.’ The NSS considers the Indo-Pacific as the ‘next century’s key economic and geopolitical battleground.’
The Indian MEA spokesperson mentioned in his weekly briefing, ‘It (NSS) underscores the importance the US attaches to India as a key partner. We have a multifaceted relationship with the US. Both countries enjoy comprehensive global strategic partnership, and continue to work to further strengthen these ties.’
The current consideration of India is subdued as compared to earlier NSSs. The Biden era Oct 2022 NSS mentioned, ‘As India is the world’s largest democracy and a Major Defence Partner, the US and India will work together, bilaterally and multilaterally, to support our shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.’
Even Trump’s 2017 NSS was different. It stated, ‘We welcome India’s emergence as a leading global power and stronger strategic and defence partner.’ It added, ‘We will expand our defence and security cooperation with India, a Major Defence Partner of the US, and support India’s growing relationships throughout the region.’
India presently faces the brunt of Trump’s tariffs at 50%. While Trump defends it by stating that Indian oil procurement from Russia funds its war machinery (ignoring other nations doing the same), however, the reality is that India is amongst few which have refused to play to Trump’s exalted ego. New Delhi also refused to endorse Trump’s claim of having stopped the Indo-Pak conflict of May this year, opening doors for him to claim the Nobel Peace Prize.
Another reason for economic and diplomatic pressure on India is to compel it to ink a favourable trade deal catering to demands of the US farmer community. Both nations have their red lines. As the commerce minister Piyush Goyal stated, ‘Wherever we get a good deal, a fair deal, an equitable deal, India will be ready to put signature on paper.’
The message conveyed through the latest NSS is that relations are being looked through the economic prism rather than security as in earlier years. The current US administration, in the NSS, insists that their allies and partners (in Europe and Asia) enhance their military spending, to align with US demands.
India does not fall into any category as it remains a non-ally. However, Delhi is enhancing its military capabilities as a counter to China, aware that it would fight alone. As long as the US does not consider China as an adversary, there will not be any major emphasis on expanding Indo-US ties as also the role of the QUAD.
Another factor is that Indo-US ties are dependent on Pak-US relations. Till the current US administration came to power, Pakistan was largely ignored, including in Trump’s first tenure, while Indo-US ties flourished. The ongoing Trump administration is enhancing ties with Pakistan, largely to benefit the family crypto business, thereby impacting its economic and diplomatic relations with India. Indo-US military and security ties remain robust.
For a nation to be considered a close ally there has to be an understanding of one another’s concerns. The US ignoring India’s is sending the message that either India adhere to its demands, or would be compelled to do so by coercion. Further, it always claims to be balancing its ties with both, India and Pakistan. The recent release of USD 686 Million for Pak F 16s is an example.
India has displayed that it too has options. The visit of President Putin to India, high on optics but low on agreements, did send a message that India will maintain its strategic autonomy. While no major defence agreements were announced, many would be on the cards, each one being handled independently, with passage of time, to avoid worsening of ties with the US.
Presently India-US relations are not what they should be, thanks to Trump’s policies. India has thus far displayed maturity, not adopting counter tariffs as also avoiding a meeting of leaders, while Trump continues to target India. Will they bounce back is to be seen.