Washington may well change for the better The Statesman 12 Nov 2024 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
Washington may well change for the better The Statesman 12 Nov 2024
Donald trump will assume US presidency on 20th Jan 2025. Biden’s tenure was impacted by his age and slowing mental abilities, thereby opening doors for the deep state, largely comprising of individuals who were part of the Obama administration, to push decisions. Biden’s presidency was marked by the US backing wrong conflict’s, ignoring essential threats and attempting to pressurize allies.
Possibly most of the decisions taken were not those of Biden, but thrust down on him by the deep state, the very institution Trump vows to eradicate. Trump has also faced the power of the deep state during the past four years, when court cases were piled against him, as also during campaigning, when deep state control media coverage was biased. Whether he will succeed in dismantling it, especially as it remains deeply entrenched within the US government, is a question.
Entering the Ukraine war by pumping funds and weapons, hoping to bring the Russian economy down was a major Biden blunder. Neither Russia collapsed, nor has Ukraine thrown the Russians out, nor has Europe become safer. On the contrary, despite sanctions, Russia remains resilient, supported by China, North Korea and Iran. The nexus of these four is now a threat to Eurasia. The China-Russia combine was given a boost by the Biden administration.
The entry of North Korea into the war and the Russia-North Korea comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, which the US failed to read and prevent, has ensured Pyongyang’s survival and no future US government can bring it to heel, unless relations with Russia are reversed. Despite all influx of weapons and funds, the war drags on, in favour of Moscow. Ukraine’s Zelensky has been falsely claiming that victory is around the corner, whereas the reality is that Ukraine is struggling to hold onto its frontlines, while its population is weary of the conflict.
Trump will realistically work to bring an end to the conflict, despite the theatrics of Zelensky. He is aware that all the US has been doing is pumping in good money after bad into the cesspool of Ukraine. Terms of peace will be those of Russia while India is likely to play a role as it remains the only nation trusted by all sides. Trump may face European resistance in lifting sanctions against Russia. If he doesn’t, the US Dollar may face setbacks as the global currency.
In the Middle East too, Trump has to find a way to terminate the conflict. The longer it prolongs, the more the possibility of it expanding and engulfing the region. However, hostages must return and Israel be guaranteed peace. A solution would only flow once pressure is applied on all sides. Qatar demanding Hamas representatives leave the country is a start.
Trump is aware that the main threat to the US, militarily, technologically and economically, flows from China and if that has to be tackled, there are few pre-conditions. The first is that the Russia-China axis must be broken. Ending the Ukraine conflict on largely Russian terms and lifting sanctions is the answer. China, on its part, would prefer ongoing conflicts continue and the US remains indirectly involved. This opens doors for its expansion in SE Asia, including regaining Taiwan.
The second is that US ties with India must grow stronger than the present. For that a lot must change. India cannot be threatened on illogical issues such as assassination of terrorists on Canadian and US soil, its human rights record and democratic standing. Most of these subjects have been pushed by the deep state, repeated by the Biden administration. Trump was in India, in his first tenure, when violent Shaheen Bagh protests rocked Delhi. He was aware who was behind them.
Incidents like that of the White House staff meeting Sikh fundamentalists just prior to PM Modi landing for the QUAD summit, sending a message that the US has the ability to cause internal turmoil in India, will not enhance ties. India ignoring the subject is a different matter. Nor would raising human rights while protecting Gurpatwant Singh Pannun and his ilk, who continue to threaten Indian carriers as also target Indian diplomatic properties.
The India-Canada spat, flowed because the US deep state backed Trudeau. Comments from members of the US administration in press meets are a case in point. Dislike between Trump and Trudeau is well known. Amongst the countries most affected in case Trump imposes a 10% tariff on imports would be Canada, as 75% of its exports are to the US. It could lose as much as USD 7 Billion from its GDP by 2028, as also increased inflation and cost of living.
Fear is already evident in the Canadian leadership. With the dismantling of the deep state, support to Trudeau’s accusations would cease. There is also a likelihood of early elections in Canada, ending Trudeau’s reign.
The Yunus government imposed in Bangladesh against India’s wishes will possibly face pressures. Mohamad Yunus has been a Democrat supporter, honoured by Barrack Obama, a member of the Clinton Foundation and financially contributed to the Biden and Kamala campaigns. Trump’s rally speech on the violence against minorities in Bangladesh has set the tone of his intent. How will the Trump administration handle this is to be seen. Will India be involved in Bangladesh’s future remains a question mark.
Trump’s re-election has already caused turmoil in Europe and Canada. European leaders met last week in Hungary to discuss two key issues, the re-election of Trump and the collapse of the German coalition government. It was evident that Europe would now need to enhance its capacity for self-defence, while reducing dependency on the US for military equipment and funds. As the Hungarian PM, Viktor Orban, mentioned, ‘The world is going to change. It will change in a quicker way than before, quicker than we thought.’
Trump has his own views. These will be reinforced by those whom he appoints to head major departments of his administration and his ability to dismantle the deep state. However, if his campaign promises are to be considered many of his actions would be contrary to those of Biden. Building ties with India, despite hiccups in some fields, will be essential, if he seeks to contain the US’s major threats, including China.