Will PM Modi attend the SCO summit The Excelsior 13 Sep 2024 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
Will PM Modi attend the SCO summit The Excelsior 13 Sep 2024
Pakistan has formally extended an invitation to the Indian PM for the two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) Council of Heads of Government meeting to be held in Islamabad in October. Pakistan is the rotating chairman for the same. The Pakistan foreign office spokesperson stated, ‘Invitations have been sent to the heads of countries to participate in the meeting which will take place on October 15-16.’ India confirmed the invite but refused to comment on it. It also asked the media not to speculate on India’s participation.
Pak commentators have been harping that this is a golden opportunity for the two nations to bury the hatchet and move forward. An editorial in The Dawn stated, ‘the possibility of the Pakistani and Indian heads of government engaging, even if perfunctorily, would be something to look forward to.’ They also claimed that Bilawal Bhutto, then Pakistan’s foreign minister, attended the two-day SCO Council of Foreign Ministers in Goa in May 2023, breaking the ice. He was the first Pak foreign minister to visit India in 12 years.
However, Bilawal’s comments on Kashmir marred an otherwise fruitful summit. He stated in a press interaction on a question on possible recommencement of talks, ‘the actions on August 5 (abrogation of article 370) really slammed the door shut on that process. We would like India, the Indian government to create an environment conducive to talks and as soon as we return to the status quo of August 4 2019, I believe we can engage in a meaningful dialogue.’ Jaishankar responded equally critically, ‘Wake up and smell the coffee. (Article) 370 is history. The sooner people realise it, the better it is.’
The forthcoming event in Pakistan will be preceded by multiple rounds of senior official meetings on diverse subjects and a ministerial level discussion of foreign ministers. India, as the host of the SCO in 2023, conducted the leader’s summit in virtual mode in July, in which the Pak PM, Shehbaz Sharif, was also present. It is unknown if those unable to attend the forthcoming meet in Islamabad in person would join in the virtual mode.
India, conducting the event in an online mode last year, offset many possible embarrassments for the government. These included PM Modi’s bilateral meetings (as the host nation) with leaders of both, China and Pakistan (in case Shehbaz attended), as also welcoming them to the event. Ties with China have been strained since the Galwan Clash of Jun 2020.
The charter of the SCO prohibits raising of bilateral issues in the forum. However, nations convey their perceptions by commenting on the subject in general. Further, individual relationships do matter before leaders confirm attendance.
PM Modi also missed the recent SCO summit in July in Khazakstan. The official reason stated was its clashing with the first parliamentary session post elections. The Indian delegation was led by the foreign minister, Dr Jaishankar. However, in the current case, with Pakistan being the hosts, it is unlikely that even Jaishankar would attend.
SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), another organization involving India and Pak, has been dead for years as India refuses to attend any summit of it in Pakistan, which remains the host. The reason is Pakistan’s continued support to terrorism. India’s allies in South Asia have backed the Indian viewpoint. Even if one member refuses, the summit is aborted. Recently Maldives (post the arrival of the Muizzu government), Bangladesh (after the overthrow of the Sheikh Hasina government) and Nepal have been suggesting that the institution be revived. However, India is insistent.
Indo-Pak relations have been in the deep freeze since India scrapped Article 370 in Aug 2019. High commissioners have been withdrawn and trade blocked. Simultaneously, both nations accuse the other of supporting terrorism on their soil, India claiming Pak sponsors terrorism in Kashmir while Pakistan accuses India of backing terrorist groups in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, through Afghanistan and Iran.
The two nations have had almost zero contact over the years. Thus, the PM attending would convey India’s willingness to bend or taking the first step, which could play out negatively in internal politics, exploited by the opposition. Farooq Abdullah has been pushing for dialogue as the only way forward for Kashmir, a factor New Delhi disagrees. India’s stand has always been that talks and terrorism cannot go hand-in-hand. Further, India has outgrown Pak and hence bilaterally the visit would be meaningless.
Another reason why the PM would avoid the SCO summit is China. The rise of China and decline of Russia, since the commencement of the Ukraine war, has led to the SCO being Beijing dominated, with Moscow as the junior partner. Other than India and Russia, all other nations in the group are members of the Chinese BRI (Belt Road Initiative).
It is only India which refuses to endorse the BRI in every outcome document. Further, India is the only true democracy in the SCO, giving it credence. If India quits, the SCO would end up as a grouping of autocracies or quasi-democracies challenging global democracies. The presence of the world’s fastest growing economy adds to the organization’s value, overshadowed by Chinese domination.
The control of China over the SCO was evident in the last summit in Astana, Khazakstan. While the Russo-Ukraine war was not mentioned there was a mention on ‘unilateral and unrestricted build-up of missile defence systems,’ aimed at the US, in the outcome document. The inclusion of Iran last year and the admission of Belarus, a Russia satellite state, this year, displays the growing anti-west nature of the organization.
For India to continue participating in a China dominated institution, especially as relations between the two are cold, would again send a wrong signal, though there could be no formal interaction between Modi and Xi Jinping. The west, India’s current partners, also view the China dominated SCO negatively. India’s refusal to permit any western comments in the final outcome document has been appreciated.
In all likelihood, the government will not announce its decision till the elections in J and K are complete. Announcing prior could open doors for its exploitation by political parties in the run-up to elections. Further, India should also slowly distance itself from the SCO.