Zelensky flip leaves Europe in cold The Statesman 11 Mar 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar

Zelensky flip leaves Europe in cold The Statesman 11 Mar 2025

Post the disaster at the White House, Zelensky arrived in London to a warm welcome and support from European nations. Added was the presence of Canada’s Justin Trudeau. The welcome was largely because Europe and Canada have also faced a hostile Trump administration. A clear case of birds of a feather flocking together.

Canada is heading for increased tariffs, while Europe was sounded off by the US secretary of defence Pete Hegseth as also the its Vice President JD Vance on their own turf. Trump has also warned the EU of increased tariffs. Canada and Europe are currently threatening counter-tariffs. The trans-Atlantic alliance is no longer what it was during Biden’s tenure.

At the end of the Zelensky-European group meeting, British PM, Kier Starmer, mentioned, ‘Europe must do the heavy lifting,’ adding, ‘To support peace, and to succeed, this effort must have strong US backing.’ Europe is aware that they lack clout to push any deal through on their own and need US guarantees for ensuring the survival of Ukraine.

However, they believe they can continue funding Ukraine even if the US does not. Europe attempted to send a message to the US that that they care for Ukraine as it is part of the continent.

The group, termed the ‘coalition of the willing,’ announced its intent to develop a plan for ending the Ukraine conflict. There was hope that Zelensky could also repair his relationship with Trump. Britain and France agreed to contribute troops for a peacekeeping force, in case the same was required. Starmer individually announced a financial package of military funding for Ukraine.

In Jan this year, just prior to Trump’s swearing in, Starmer visited Ukraine and inked a 100-year partnership agreement. It covers support through multiple sectors including health care and military technology as also security guarantees ‘once the war ends.’ Zelensky mentioned that the agreement included a classified portion, which possibly is sharing Ukraine’s rare earth resources.

Europe believed that by threatening to develop its own peace plan, it could display unity. Currently, Trump has no plans to involve Europe or Ukraine in any peace talks with Russia. Eighteen European leaders voicing support for Zelensky after the diplomatic clash at the White House and promising to back him, ignoring the US viewpoint, will not sit well with Trump. The distance which existed between the US and Europe would only grow.

The US had also warned Europe to cater to its own defence by enhancing defence spending as the US had other security concerns, implying China. This added to the growing trans-Atlantic rift. It compelled Europe to rethink. President Macron of France and the German foreign minister, Baerbock, gave impassioned speeches claiming that Europe must prepare for war with Russia. Macron also offered nuclear guarantee for Europe.

A recent press statement of the European Commission quoted its President, Von Der Leyen, mentioning, ‘Europe is ready to assume its responsibilities. Re-Arm Europe could mobilise close to EUR 800 billion for a safe and resilient Europe.’ Europe has finally realized that it has to enhance its own military budgets.

Russia criticized Europe for its support to Ukraine. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister dismissed Europe’s offer for a peacekeeping force. He mentioned, ‘Now they also want to prop him up with bayonets in the form of peacekeeping units. This will mean that the root causes will not disappear.’ The Polish PM, Donald Tusk, mocked his European colleagues when he stated, ‘500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians.’ He insisted that Europe must cater for its own defence.

While Europe hopes that it could persuade the US to back its proposals it also needs to be aware that in case the US refuses, they would have an additional burden on themselves which will not be easy. The US National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, recently mentioned, ‘If it becomes apparent that President Zelensky’s either personal motivations or political motivations are divergent from ending the fighting in his country, then I think we have a real issue on our hands.’ The US might seek a change in leadership in Ukraine, in case Zelensky does not back down, while Europe may not.

Waltz also mentioned that he and Secretary of State Marc Rubio advised President Trump after the disastrous White House meeting that they did not visualize anything moving forward in the future. Rubio had warned Zelensky that ‘US aid is not unlimited.’ However, Zelensky believes that Ukraine must continue the fight despite losses and that western nations must provide him with the wherewithal. Ukraine is struggling to make up manpower losses on the battlefield, a fact highlighted to him by Vance in the White House.

Zelensky, despite his bravado in Europe, has realized that without US support Ukraine cannot survive. Hence, he mentioned in Europe, ‘It’s crucial for us to have President Trump’s support.’ The reality is accepting Putin’s terms, which includes a weak Ukraine, is open game for Russia in the years ahead, unless it has US security guarantees. Hence, ultimately Zelensky knew that he would back down and accept the mineral deal on US terms, which will include an unofficial security guarantee.

This turnaround of Zelensky did happen and he sent a letter to Trump. Donald Trump, in his address to Congress mentioned, ‘The letter reads Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than the Ukrainians.’

To add pressure on Ukraine, The US stopped all intelligence sharing with the country. This alone will impact Ukraine’s offensive operations. It was the US’s command centre in Europe which was providing Ukraine with inputs on specific military targets in Russia, enabling it to engage them effectively. It also enabled Ukraine to determine where Russian operations would progress.

This worked and Zelensky capitulated. Ukraine realized that without US support, future operations would be impacted. Hence, it was compelled to back down and toe the US line. Trump ultimately had his way. This surrender by Ukraine would impact Europe which was standing tall with Ukraine and conveying that it could stand up to Trump’s bullying. Europe, which was working on its own peace plan, is now out in the cold. It is left alone as Zelensky again switches allegiance.