80 Days of War… and counting
80 Days of War… and counting
By
Maj Gen Sharabh Pachory, VSM (retd)
Member STRIVE.
18 May 2026 marks 80 days of the US-Iran war. The ceasefire, which hangs by a thread, has done little to assuage tensions or ease pressure. I briefly outline the gains, losses, effects and larger repercussions of this pointless war which has pushed the world to the brink of economic disaster and untold misery, the effects of which are only beginning to be felt, including in India, which weathered the storm (so far), better than many others.
The US went into this war, ostensibly at the behest of Israel, riding on confidence and hubris generated by their successful Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela. They expected Iran to roll over quickly, ala Nicolas Maduro and his country. A fallacious premise as it turned out. The unspoken oil and energy issue apart, US’ other objectives were regime change, ending Iran’s nuclear weapons programme (achieved already through JCPOA signed by the Obama regime in 2015…and junked by Trump in his first presidency) and ensuring that Iran no longer posed a threat to USA (to Israel, more factually, because Iran never had been a direct threat to USA, despite several US administrations over the last 47 years claiming so). After 80 days of hostilities, one is left to wonder if any of these objectives have been even partially met.
In its control over the Strait of Hormuz (SH), Iran apparently has an instrument more potent than a nuclear weapon. Besides, early on in the war, despite decapitation of its political and military leadership, Iran realised that even as it cannot take on the combined military might of USA and Israel, it can go after US bases and assets in the GCC countries. This strategy apparently worked and soon USA was out of credible options. The US naval blockade, still in place, has so far done little to deter or subdue Iran. Tall statements and social media posts from US handles about decimation of Iran and complete victory did not fly. For Iran, mere survival against such a formidable enemy was victory. For US and Israel, an admission that they had failed to bring Iran to its knees in 80 days, would tantamount to conceding defeat. The world, even as it suffered an unprecedented energy crisis, watched in awe and silently lauded Iran’s resilience and fortitude.
The ceasefire declared by America on 08 April, it appears, was a ploy to take stock of its humongous expenditure and losses of military hardware…and possibly recoup the same, should the requirement of resuming hostilities and raining fire on Iran rise again. For the moment, despite the threats, that seems unlikely.
The conditions put forth by USA, including, but not limited to handover of Iran’s meagre nuclear material (or nuclear dust, as America calls it), will not be accepted ever by Iran. Iran, on the other hand is demanding, inter alia, reparations for the war damage, de-freezing of billions of dollars of its assets, total control of the SH (which could include charging a ‘toll’ from passing ships, unacceptable under UNCLOS),etc. These are unlikely to be agreed to by USA.
In the interim, there have been attempts at diplomacy, which were largely unsuccessful. Power summits, like the one between China and USA, on which many were pinning hope, yielded nothing. The recent visit of Iran’s foreign minister to India and the BRICS summit (India is the present chair) also did not bring forth meaningful outcomes. In fact, in the BRICS summit, not even a joint statement could be issued, given Iran’s and UAE’s differing standpoints. Reported telephone talks between Putin and Trump also come a cropper. Both Russia and China are indirect beneficiaries of the war (for different reasons) and presumably do not share the concerns of the rest of the world.
So what is the prognosis? Well, as of now, it seems it is different strokes for different folks. For their energy requirements, nations are finding other sources, primarily USA, which is sending out more oil tankers now than ever before. Many, like lndia, are enhancing indigenous capacity, but that will only yield results much later. Alternate energy sources which some are exploring, is also a time sensitive process. The 30 day moratorium on sanctions of Russian oil, announced by USA on 17 May will likely ease the situation, but only temporarily. Meanwhile, stock markets all over are on a downward spiral, even as the US dollar is gaining against most currencies, particularly against the Indian Rupee, which has been the worst performing currency amongst major economies.
The immediate solution lies in opening of the SH and passage of not only ships stranded for long, but vigorous movement on east and west of the Strait by more and more ships, to partly offset the loss from the long closure of the Strait. Even so, it will be a long time before the world sees a semblance of normalcy and reversion to pre 28 Feb situation. The Indian PM has already exhorted citizens to tighten their belts. The advice should be followed in the true spirit of national duty. Tough times do not last…tough people and nations do.