Why the Mecca pact MyInd.net 17 Sept 2026
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Why the Mecca pact MyInd.net 17 Sept 2026
Saudi Arabia had been seeking a NATO type pact with the US for the past few years. In Sept 2019, its oil facilities were struck by multiple missile attacks, temporarily reducing oil output by over 5 million barrels per day, the first indicator, in recent times, that the nation is vulnerable to strikes from different entities. It blamed Iran, which it denied.
A few months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022, OPEC cut oil production impacting global economy, criticized by the US, then seeking to sanction Russian oil. Biden visited Riyadh the same year, despite accusing Riyadh for the killing of Khashoggi, hoping to push for enhancement of oil production, during which Saudi Arabia raised the prospect of a NATO style defence pact with the US, alongside a civil nuclear deal.
Discussion for a security pact continued into 2023, with Saudi Arabia even willing to recognize Israel in return, only seeking Tel Aviv offer some verbal concessions to Palestinians. The US, on its part, offered security guarantees akin to its agreement with Asian nations (Japan, Philippines and South Korea) as also making Saudi Arabia a major non-NATO ally, similar to Israel. This would avoid Congressional approval.
Washington also offered an optional agreement in line with what it had with Bahrain, which read, ‘deter and confront any external aggression.’ This did not satisfy the Saudi’s, who continued to insist on a NATO type agreement. The US has a military base in Saudi Arabia at the Prince Sultan Air Base housing about 2300 personnel, operating Patriot Missile Batteries, THAAD systems as also logistics for regional aircraft support. Everything changed with the Hamas attack on Israel in Oct 2023.
The Israeli attack on Qatar on 09 Sept 2025, targeting a Hamas delegation, was the turning point for nations in the region. Qatar was then negotiating between Israel and Hamas and houses the largest US base in the Middle East, which is also the forward HQ for the US Central Command and houses over 10,000 troops.
The region at large and the Saudis in particular felt that despite close partnership with the US, it could not prevent Israel from attacking the region. Netanyahu’s subsequent apology to the Qatar PM in a phone call, facilitated by Trump, did not reduce the distrust which had grown against the US. Added was the US concentrating on defending Israel versus Middle East nations during Iran’s counter strikes. Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council already had a defence pact since 2000, which was not activated due to internal differences.
Barely a week later, on 17th Sept 2025, the SDMA (Strategic Defence Mutual Agreement) between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia was signed and released, though both claimed it had been on the cards for some time. It was a collective security agreement with both countries treating an attack on one as an attack on the other.
The Saudi’s had attempted to convey to the US that if it cannot prevent the Israeli’s from attacking them, they would turn to others. Since the 1970’s Pakistan has been providing training to Saudi forces as also deploying troops for border protection and internal security. Pakistan is also a sworn enemy of Israel.
The reality was that Pakistan could never replace the US in providing security to Riyadh. If the SDMA already existed, why draw in Turkey into a near similar Mecca Pact. Further throughout the Iran war, Pakistan never acted in support of Riyadh, despite attacks by Iran and the Houthis.
As the Iran war took shape and Pakistan became a negotiator on the calling of the US, as also was Iran’s neighbour, Riyadh realized that it would hesitate to be involved in any military action against Iran. Pakistan also did not respond to Houthi attacks on its oil facilities and shipping, though it deployed 8000 troops including air defence resources and aircraft in Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi’s have, on their part, displayed no interest in getting involved in Pakistan’s conflict with Afghanistan, which is ongoing, nor would they risk their growing economic ties with India, to retaliate to any Indian strike after a terrorist incident. The SDMA was basically Pakistan seeking stronger financial ties with Riyadh by promising it security. The Saudi’s needed something better and thus Turkey entered the arena.
Talks of a possible Mecca pact were revealed as early as Jan this year, with inputs of a draft being circulated between the three nations. Thus, it appears that the SDMA was only a stop-gap arrangement. The reasons for including Turkey are that it supplies weapon systems to both nations, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, has borders with Iran where the current instability could spill over and hence their interests merge, Saudi Arabia being within striking range, the growing confidence of the Houthis as also the rearming of Iranian Kurdish militias impacts Turkey.
Turkey can provide NATO military standards, equipment from its defence industries, Pakistan the troops, while Saudi would fund both battered economies to enable development of their military industries. Pakistan is the only nuclear power amongst the three but is unlikely to deploy its nuclear weapons nor provide nuclear cover to any country. Turkey is already home to US nuclear weapons. The Saudis would gain with military support while the others would have their defence industries funded.
Turkey was already a member of NATO and had assured security, then why this additional pact. The reason appears to be that the Mecca pact would enhance the standing of Turkey in the Islamic world and set aside differences between Ankara and Riyadh. Both Turkey and Saudi have a common view on Syria and Israel, especially post operations in Gaza, thereby setting aside differences. It also indicates that Saudi will no longer seek a NATO type pact with the US, while letting the US continue with its base in the country. This also suits the US currently. Simultaneously Turkey is hedging against existing structures, especially as the US threatens to reduce its commitments in NATO.
Another possible reason for Turkey joining was to counter the formation of a hexagonal axis involving Israel, India, Greece, Cyprus and some members of the erstwhile Abraham accords, announced by Netanyahu, prior to the Iran war in Feb this year. Terming the Mecca pact as an Islamic or Sunni NATO is misleading as most Sunni or Islamic nations are not members. Just three does not justify a broad-based name. While Iran appears to be the target for Saudi Arabia, not so for Pakistan.
Will nations actually get involved in countering threats of the other on ground is debatable. NATO is effective as it has joint armed forces, while that is not the case here. The pact states that members would consider their involvement individually. This will not only delay involvement but also result in haphazard deployment and employment.
Saudi Arabia had also created the IMCTC (Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition) in 2017, with ex-Pakistan army chief General Raheel Sharief as its head. It currently includes 40 nations. It was initially announced as a ‘Sunni bloc’ aimed at being anti-Iran, denied by its founders. Many major Islamic nations have not joined the block. Its role remains largely academic conducting training. It troops have also not been considered as part of the Mecca pact.
In so far as India is involved, while we continue to watch the development, Turkey would be happy supplying Pakistan weapons at a cost as also providing it support as it did in Operation Sindoor. This will be as before. It will not move its armed forces into the region. Saudi is unlikely to be involved and would watch from the sidelines, seeking to negotiate and stop hostilities.
Neither Turkey nor Saudi would be involved in any Pak-Afghan conflict. Diplomatic support could still flow. Similarly, Pakistan would not be involved in any potential clash between Turkey and Greece, which is also a NATO state. Both Turkey and Pakistan would hesitate being involved in a conflict with Iran as they could be drawn into a greater war. Neither nation has offered to target the Houthis in retaliation for their strikes.
Thus, it is most likely that the Saudi’s are purchasing Pak and Turkey support for any major threat. Thus far, the Houthis have attacked Saudi oil infrastructure as also its ships and there has been no reaction from any side. What will happen in the future is to be seen. Ultimately, the Saudi’s who have been seeking a security pact, have achieved what they wanted while Pakistan and Turkey will have their defence industries funded. It is unlikely to be more than that.