The US will re-evaluate its Middle East Presence The Statesman 13 Oct 2026
https://epaper.thestatesman.com/reader/4209323/Delhi-The-Statesman/13-10-2026/page/9/2/rw
The US will re-evaluate its Middle East Presence The Statesman 13 Oct 2026
The US invaded Iran in Feb this year leading to a retaliation on its bases in the Middle East. It had expected the war to conclude in days with Iran facing an internal revolution, post elimination of its leadership, pushed by Israel’s MOSSAD. This was the scenario painted by Netanyahu when he briefed Trump prior to the conflict. This did not happen and Iran retaliated with missiles and drones on US bases as also oil infrastructure of countries which housed them. As per reports, about 20 US bases were targeted with many suffering heavy damage. Photographs of destroyed bases were posted on social media impacting US’s military reputation.
Iran specifically targeted high-value assets including air defence radar systems, satellite communication infrastructure and aircraft stationed on the ground. US losses were in billions of dollars forcing the Pentagon to redeploy its personnel and assets, including shifting troops into hotels. The Pentagon’s Inspector General’s report mentioned, ‘Iranian strikes damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and structures at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan during the conflict.’
Simultaneously, the US is running short of critical missiles essential to ward of Iran’s drone and missile threats. This happened because of US’s flawed strategy to concentrate more on quality than quantity in missile production. The better the quality, the slower the production and costlier the munition. It was forced to utilize these costly missiles to destroy cheap drones and missiles launched by Iran. Its Patriot interceptors are currently down by almost 70%, THAAD systems are at critically low levels, Tomahawk missiles down by over 50% and it has almost exhausted its precision strike missiles.
The architecture in the Middle East is also changing. The US is no longer considered a staunch ally, especially because it failed to warn its allies on its Iran invasion plans, leaving them defenceless as also could not stop Israel from targeting Qatar. The Mecca pact and the SMDA (Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement) between Pak and Saudi indicate that the region is looking beyond the US for its security.
The US, under President Biden, had in 2024, negotiated an agreement with Iraq to end its deployment there. It was expected that the Iran war would lead to it continuing but that did not happen. On 30th Sept, the US completed its withdrawal from the country much to the joy of local Iraqis, Iran and its proxies. This despite all conditions in the agreement not being met, especially the degradation of Iran’s proxies. The US also announced that forces overlooking anti-ISIS operations have been relocated to Jordan.
It has been stated by senior US military officials that they would vacate a few bases amongst those severely damaged by Iran in its strikes. Iran, which placed a condition for US withdrawal from the region is now claiming victory. Simultaneously, the US, possibly temporarily, pulled out its aircraft from Britain’s Fairford base. While the British government declared the base safe, Trump mentioned that the withdrawal had been done due to ‘some threats.’ He mentioned, ‘they did not fly out from there by accident.’
Bases in the Middle East were initially constructed for multiple reasons. These included securing oil and gas supplies, for which it is no longer dependent on the Middle East, as its own production capacity has increased as also it controls oil fields across South America and Iraq. Secondly, it was to keep the Soviets out of the region, which again is no longer valid, though Russia and China remain interested in expanding their influence in the region.
The third was to deter Iraq during the reign of Saddam Hussain, post the invasion of Kuwait, which again has ended. The fifth was for counter terrorism against the ISIS and other regional militant groups. It has shifted its troops for counter ISIS to Jordan. Finally, the latest was to contain Iran and its proxies, especially because Iran and Israel, its closest ally, are sworn enemies.
In reality, the US was unprepared for the level of strikes on its bases and realized, for the first time, that its many of its bases across the world, are possibly a liability, as they can be attacked and severely damaged without it being able to protect them. This was also the first time that so many US bases were targeted near simultaneously. The realization is creeping in that with Iran gaining technology leading to developing extended range missiles and an unending supply of drones, defending multiple bases in the Middle East is difficult.
Further, Iran attacked Gulf states not only because they hosted US bases alone but it also realized that this was the only way to apply pressure on the US to cease its attacks. Middle Eastern nations too would not be unhappy if the US reduces its presence as it is no longer considered a net security provider. Even if the Pentagon was to reconstruct its bases it would be forced to choose which are essential for it to occupy and for what reason. It is possible that this assessment is now in progress.
The US strategy for the Middle East is also undergoing a change. In 2024, the US CENTCOM in a statement mentioned that it is moving from being a ‘security guarantor to security integrator,’ implying that it will provide hardware, training and intelligence, rather than troops. The Pentagon is also realizing that it can act in a similar manner against Iran from distance and far more secure bases.
The US decision to reduce some of its bases will have an impact across the region. Iran’s power and influence in the Middle East would increase, as has been evident in increased confidence and attacks by Houthis as also Iran backed militia in Iraq targeting Saudi pipelines. In this case the US has refused to get involved, claiming that its ceasefire with the Houthis continues.
It would also result in Middle East nations seeking their own conditions for peace with Iran, giving it greater say in the region. China and Russia, which have thus far been watching from the sidelines would now begin to exert their influence. The Middle East would grow from being US dependent to seeking alternatives for their security. The days of US’s domination in the Middle East are ending.