Has Iran overplayed the Hormuz Card
By Maj Gen Sharabh Pachory VSM retd, Member STRIVE
In one of my earlier pieces here, l had argued that in the Strait of Hormuz (SH), Iran has discovered a weapon perhaps more potent than a nuclear bomb. The long closure of the Strait, with just the occasional trickle of merchant shipping passing through, is a pale shadow of the free flow of nearly 130 ships a day pre 28 Feb.The world suffered an oil shock, then breathed a bit easy after the signing of the MoU when oil prices went down to $70 odd per barrel…and now, with the fresh flare-up in the last week or so, is again sitting on razor’s edge. Despite US attempts to allow shipping through SH, Iran has attacked commercial vessels and invited a just retaliation from USA, leaving the world anxious and much worried yet again. Iran is obdurate in its stand, with the IRGC now calling the shots and refuses to negotiate under persistent US threats.
Following the week-long funeral of the assassinated Ayatollah and the unexpectedly large turnout of Iranians, chanting death to America,Trump and Netanyahu, the mood in that beleaguered nation seems to have turned upbeat. They are baying for blood and revenge. As on date, (mid July), the possibility of an early breakthrough seems unlikely.
The question is: is Iran overplaying the Hormuz card? Following the latest unfortunate hostilities, for which each blamed the other, Iran announced that it was closing the Strait again. Trump on the other hand vowed that USA would ensure that SH remains open. He said on Truth Social on 13 July: “The Hormuz Strait is OPEN and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran…. from this point on, the USA will be known as THE GUARDIAN OF THE SH”. Coupled with Iranian strikes on several Gulf nations, the feasibility of an interim deal appears bleak and oil prices may be driven higher. The cascading effect on commodity prices, inflation, business and capital market is evident.
Besides the warring nations which have suffered losses worth billions of dollars, the world, particularly countries of the Global South have suffered major economic shocks from which it may take decades to recover. Shipping companies continue to reel under continuing losses, with insurance costs going through the roof. Seafarers and their families back home have been distraught, stuck at sea without essentials for months. India alone has lost 13 seamen, for which the MEA has formally protested to Iran. These people are hapless victims of decisions taken by old men thousands of miles away.
For Netanyahu, the continuance and even prolongation of war is a political necessity, given impending Israeli elections in October, which he will likely lose. That would take away from him the immunity he enjoys against serious corruption charges against him in Israel, as well as accusations of genocide and war crimes against him at ICJ. Till recently it appeared that for similar political reasons, viz, the US midterms due in November, Trump was keen to end the war ; with pump prices and growing inflation in USA, it wasn’t looking good for Trump. So the irony is stark – one belligerent wanting to continue the war… and the other wanting to end it – both for political, rather than larger strategic reasons! All this while lran stood stoic, defiant and even more bellicose than before, despite its massive losses. A grudging and equally battered world silently admired the underdog for its resilience.
Now, after nearly five months of the war, with intermittent ‘breaks’, the world is weary and may be beginning to lose sympathy for Iran. The tenuous MoU was always doomed to early collapse, even as all clung to hope that it just might form the framework for the eventual end of war and lasting peace.
Iran too seems to have missed a trick – if it does not agree to negotiate and open the SH before the US midterms, Trump may be unstoppable…whether he wins or loses the midterms. In case of the former, he will get Congressional approval for war; if it is the latter, he possibly may not care and ride roughshod. He hasn’t been particularly known for adherence to order or rule.
It would therefore be best for Iran to agree to allow uninterrupted shipping through the SH unconditionally and permanently. This will give it a higher moral ground and tacit world support, which would possibly help it negotiate better – possibly from a position of ethical strength…such as it is in these ‘ruleless’ times, shorn of morality and nuanced diplomacy. Iran…and the world…have suffered too much for this arrogance and hubris on either side to push it deeper into the morass of energy and economic distress and indigence.
The Hormuz card has been an ace up Iran’s sleeve. It’s now time to withdraw it and place it back in the deck.