Indo-Pak ties can never be normal The Statesman 06 May 2025 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar

https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4005848/Kolkata-The-Statesman/06TH-MAY-2025#page/9

Indo-Pak ties can never be normal The Statesman 06 May 2025

          Major terrorist strikes, at regular intervals, have pushed Indo-Pak ties to rock bottom. Normally, these happen at least once in the tenure of every Pak army chief, largely when the chief feels the need to either gain greater control over civilian authority or his forces are losing respect within the nation. Nothing binds the Pak public more than a military threat from India.  

After all, everything in Pakistan, from floods, droughts and terrorist incidents are blamed on India. They have been taught from childhood that India seeks to break their country into four and the only force protecting them is their army.

          After every terrorist incident which crosses Indian threshold of tolerance, standard comments are parroted by Pakistan. Their ministers scream it was a ‘false-flag’ operation launched by India or alternatively it was local ‘freedom fighters.’ They perpetually deny harbouring terrorists on their soil, claiming they are the most affected nation, while the world knows that almost every global terrorist incident has some link to Pak as also maximum UN designated terrorists are sheltered there. The script has become repetitive and boring.

There is always a promise of an open international probe, a subject no one believes, as even after almost two decades the Mumbai terror attacks have yet to be investigated, even though Tahawwur Rana, one of its masterminds, has been extradited to India by the US. He is singing like a canary opening all secrets which Pakistan had been denying.

Pakistan will never act against terrorist leaders as they remain their prime assets. If the world is to accept Pakistan’s words, then even the Pahalgam investigation would hang in limbo for decades. It has always denied the existence of Dawood though every global agency is aware of his multiple residences in Pak.

On the contrary, once threatened of retaliation, they suddenly discover proof of Indian involvement in terrorist activities on their soil.

While Indian leaders only mentioned making Pak pay for attacking unarmed tourists, every Pak minister, desperate to project bravado, howls on media networks that an Indian attack is imminent. While the Indian government maintains silence, Pak continues its nuclear rattling, aware it no longer holds water.

In the UNSC statement on Pahalgam, Pakistan convinced China to support it in removing the name of The Resistance Front (TRF), the terrorist group which initially claimed responsibility. Why was Islamabad so concerned, unless it backs the TRF.

Families of top politicians and senior military officers are fleeing abroad expecting a major Indian counterstrike. This displays the faith they possess on their own forces. Hoping to gain public support, Pak has begun threatening India over scrapping the IWT (Indus water Treaty), going to the extent of claiming that its dams will be filled with Indian blood.

Historically, Indian governments responded to Pak terrorist strikes by ‘Kadi Ninda,’ seeking global support, hoping to contain Pak. It never worked. On the contrary, it resulted in terrorist strikes at frequent intervals.

The J and K legislative assembly attack of Oct 2001, followed closely by the Parliament attack of Dec the same year, Akshardham attack of Sept 2002, Mumbai bombings of Aug 2003, followed by multiple bombings in Delhi of Oct 2005, Mumbai train attacks of July 2006 and the terrorist attack in Mumbai in Nov 2008 are some examples.

It was only after Pulwama and the subsequent Balakote strike that the message went across. The cross-border strike, post Uri, failed to deter Pak as it was able to hide casualties, since those eliminated were terrorists, who remain dispensable. While it hid the truth in Balakote, the message was clear. India will respond in unpredictable ways.

Thus, post Pahalgam, while Indian armed forces remain alert, Pakistan has moved most of its troops to its borders. Its sudden spurt of exercises, intending to display preparedness, are expending their limited oil and ammunition reserves. India has yet to show its hand but panic is visible in Rawalpindi.

The suspending of the IWT, whose impact is well known to Islamabad, has spooked their leadership. They have no solution except to claim it is against international law. If the situation spirals downwards, there is no way they can convince India to reconsider its decision.

The fact remains that the treaty was inked on the pre-condition that relations would remain peaceful between the two states. However, currently they are anything but so.

India’s outreach to Kabul has added to concerns within Pak. As tensions build, the Baloch and TTP will exploit the gaps, especially since Pakistan has moved elements of its Quetta based XII Corps and its formations to the Indian border.  

India historically faces a dilemma in containing terrorism from Pak. Its earlier policy of criticism was ineffective as also Pak was buoyed by US presence in Afghanistan as it banked on their airspace as also the Karachi port. US presence secured the Durand Line, providing it greater freedom to enhance pressure on India.  

The Balakote strike sent the message that Pakistan too has vulnerabilities which India can exploit. Currently these are far more. Its western borders are insecure and its economy in doldrums. Thus, India commenced its retaliation with economic and diplomatic actions, setting the ground for the final stage, a military response. Economic actions including suspending IWT and trade, mainly pharmaceuticals, was aimed at common masses who would rise in anger against the army.

The military response will be final. India is in no rush. The longer it keeps the Pak army deployed along the IB and LoC, the greater is the impact on their economy. India has conveyed that it will respond at a time and place of its own choosing. India’s strategy was so effective that Pakistan’s Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, held a presser at 2 am claiming India would attack in the next two days.

The problem India faces is that no matter what military action it takes, not much will change. Pak will continue supporting terrorism, though ensuring it is low grade for a few years, until the next army chief arrives and feels he must do something spectacular. Another incident will happen and the story will repeat itself. The only solution for safeguarding India from Pak sponsored terrorism is its balkanization. For this, India must put its weight behind groups fighting for independence from Pak.