The sacrificial lambs Raksha Anirveda 27 Oct 2026
The sacrificial lambs Raksha Anirveda 27 Oct 2026
The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, visited Tehran last week. Al Jazeera mentioned that the aim of the visit was to ‘discuss the war with the United States and efforts to end it.’ The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, stated that talks with Lavrov focussed on regional developments including the US-Israel war on Iran. Israel was specifically called out during discussions. In the joint press conference, Moscow reaffirmed its commitment to its strategic partnership with Iran as also called for a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
This may be the official line but the visit timing and background present a different picture. The US, now the leading aggressor on Iran, is in a bind. It commenced its attacks on Iran, after being prodded by Israel, with the aim of toppling the regime as also stopping Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. Instead, it has been caught in an adverse scenario with the closure of the Hormuz Straits and damage to almost all its 20 bases in the Middle East. It has been unable to bring Iran to heel.
Simultaneously, it is short of critical missiles and hence hesitates to prolong the conflict. The rise in diesel prices in the US to over $ 6 per barrel, illogically blamed on Ukraine, has pushed Trump’s ratings down and threatens his retaining majority in the Senate post midterm elections. Trump is aware that any attack on Iran will be responded to, leading to further degradation of its limited missile reserves. This is forcing the US to consider a face-saving exit. This is where Russia comes into the picture.
The Trump-Putin conversation of 09 Oct was where possible bargaining took place, though no inputs on this were released to the media. It appeared that Trump offered Russia everything it desired, with nothing in return. Trump subsequently mentioned that Russia is ‘doing very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic of Iran, compared to what they could be doing, and I want to keep it that way.’ The reality is that Russia is backing Iran by multiple means including intelligence, food stocks and technology.
What did Trump offer Russia? Trump opened doors for Russia to export its diesel by lifting sanctions on it. He also agreed to Putin’s demand for a possible trilateral summit with Xi Jinping of China in Nov on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Beijing. He also announced his intention of pushing for the release of some of Russia’s frozen funds. To this end, US negotiators proposed the same to Europe, which holds these assets. Europe refused US’s demands. Soon after the conversation, Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which has not lasted.
Simultaneously, Trump began pressurizing Ukraine. He accused Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, of being the stumbling block on peace and demanded that Ukraine elect a new president, ‘capable of making peace with Russia.’ He reduced speeds of Elon Musk owned Space X’s Starlink and Starshield, on which Ukraine depends for defensive and offensive operations as also logistics.
Russian missile and drone strikes have continued unabated at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Zelensky has repeatedly complained that there has been no forthcoming intelligence on Russian strikes while speed of Space X’s resources remain low as also delivery of PAC 3 missiles for Ukraine’s Patriot missile systems are not forthcoming. After mounting domestic and international pressure, Space X assets speeds have been restored.
US Secretary of State, Marc Rubio, mentioned in Uzbekistan, that due to a software glitch, intelligence was not forthcoming, an improbable excuse. There are also reports that the US threatened Kyiv with slowdown in crucial weapons deliveries unless it stopped striking Russian oil refineries.
Trump gave his version on his Truth media network, ‘I am in the process of negotiating peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don’t want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table. Zelenskyy doesn’t care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him … he doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did.’ For Trump, Zelensky will be sacrificed to obtain what he desires from Russia.
In their meeting with Putin in Moscow, Trump’s negotiator Steve Witkoff offered their latest proposal for peace which included Ukraine withdrawing from parts of Donbass as also no entry of Ukraine into NATO, meeting Putin’s demand, though it was not agreed to by Zelensky. It was after this that Putin agreed to trilateral discussions with Ukraine and the US. Trump’s support for Russia comes despite mounting pressure from members of the senate, including his own party. This has not been lost on Moscow.
There are no free lunches in diplomacy. Russia, in return for Trump accepting its stand on Ukraine, will return the favour by pushing Iran to the negotiating table. Iran needs Russia as it supplies it with food grains via the Caspian Sea route, which cannot be blockaded, as also technology and satellite intelligence. While Iran may agree to engage in discussions it would desire that the US adhere to the agreed Islamabad MOU for a face-saving start.
Iran’s other supporter is China. To appease China, Trump has still not cleared the $ 14 billion sale of weapons to Taiwan. Trump, by engaging both allies of Iran, Russia and China, hopes to pressure Tehran into negotiations, thereby providing him a respectable exit.
Thus, the importance of the visit of Lavrov to Tehran. Prior to arriving in Tehran, Lavrov met members of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Bahrain, where they raised concern over attacks in the Hormuz Straits. While publicly Lavrov backed Iran in the conflict, in discussions he would have conveyed Putin’s views and suggestions for ending the conflict and coming to the negotiating table.
Russia would also offer to take control of Iran’s nuclear stockpiles. Under the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) inked in 2015, Russia received over 11 tonnes of Iranian low and medium enriched Uranium. This would be acceptable to Iran as it has a precedent.
Immediately after Lavrov, Pakistan’s Asim Munir and Qatar representatives visited Iran. Their visits had no result. It appears that the visit was too early post that of Lavrov. Iran will be pushed into talks, with the US offering some concessions. This may come about soon after mid-term polls. The only stumbling block are hardliners within the IRGC, who may force the leadership into refusing negotiations. In such a scenario, war will be the only option left.
To further push the US agenda on Iran, Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, is visiting Moscow for the 8th summit of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum and will meet Putin. Iran would be threatened with withdrawal of support if it does not relent and accept talks.
Trump needs to resolve the Iran war for his own reputation and standing, Putin needs victory in Ukraine for his continued control over Russia while Xi Jinping desires that the US stop arming Taiwan, thereby enhancing his reputation in China as also maintaining pressure on Taiwan. These three leaders, for their personal ambitions, will place Iran, Taiwan and Ukraine on the sacrificial alter.