Ukraine’s offensive will hit peace efforts The Statesman 20 Aug 2024 Maj Gen Harsha Kakar
Ukraine’s offensive will hit peace efforts The Statesman 20 Aug 2024
On 06 August, when the world’s eyes were on the growing violence in Bangladesh, Ukraine launched an offensive into the Kursk region of Russia. Ten thousand Ukrainian troops entered Kursk without encountering any resistance. The Russian border was manned by conscripts and lightly armed Russian infantry, who were no match for Ukrainian troops equipped with latest western weaponry. The region was considered ‘low-risk’ by Russia as fighting was raging in Donbass some distance away.
Kiev claims to have captured over 1000 Kms in the Kursk region, though the same has not been verified, 75 Russian settlements and have taken large number of Russian POWs. The incursion opens doors for Ukraine to target Russian air bases and military installations deep within the country, which has commenced.
Zelensky, the Ukrainian President, mentioned ‘Russia brought war to others, now it’s coming home. Ukraine has always wanted peace, and we will certainly ensure peace.’ Over a hundred thousand Russian civilians have been forced to flee from the Kursk region alone.
Other regions bordering Ukraine have been placed on high alert with Russia expecting similar offensives. The Indian embassy in Moscow also issued an advisory for its nationals residing in Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions of Russia to relocate. The reason stated was ‘security concerns.’
This is the first time, since the second world war, that Russian territory has been invaded by another nation and is an embarrassment for the Kremlin. All efforts are being made to down play the invasion. It is being described as a ‘terrorist action,’ ‘events in Kursk’ and even a ‘situation.’ The term invasion as also loss of territory is being avoided. The incursion also debunks the Russian projection that the war in Ukraine is firmly in its favour.
The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, mentioned, ‘It’s obvious that the enemy will keep trying to destabilize the situation in the border zone to try to destabilize the domestic political situation in our country.’ He added that the intent is to ‘gain a better negotiating position in possible future talks to end the war.’
Russia approached the UNSC for an informal meeting on the Ukrainian invasion. US, France and Britain, seeking to avoid an escalation, claimed they had no prior knowledge of Ukrainian plans. On the contrary they accused Russia of violating international humanitarian law and human rights. The Slovenian diplomat mentioned, ‘We will not recognize the aggressor as the victim.’
Russia is compelled to deploy additional troops to contain the offensive as also secure its balance borders with Ukraine, especially the Belgorod region, which may possibly be invaded next. It could then either push back invading troops or progress operations elsewhere compelling Ukraine to withdraw. However, the longer the Ukrainians stay, the more embarrassing it is for Putin.
It appears that dislodging the offensive is Moscow’s selected option. The responsibility for pushing back the offensive has been given to Alexei Dyumin, Putin’s former bodyguard, non-military and currently his close associate. If he succeeds, he could possibly become Putin’s ‘heir apparent.’ This implies the seriousness within Kremlin on repulsing the intrusion, despite their projecting a different picture.
That the Ukrainians were able to achieve complete surprise, especially in an era of drones, satellites and electronic monitoring is remarkable. The ease with which Ukrainians achieved initial success surprised them more than the defenders, who vanished at the sight of advancing Ukrainian troops.
It is reported that the military top brass in the Kremlin discarded intelligence warnings on an impending attack in the Kursk region, a grave error. Further, Ukrainian assembly of troops was billed as being done to block a new Russian push in the Donbass region. After Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive of 2023, Russia did not anticipate any major operation.
For Ukraine, the operation has come as a cause for celebration. It would justify the aid being provided to it. Many nations had begun doubting Kiev’s intent and ability to take the war to Russia. Western provided offensive weapons were thus far being employed in a defensive role. The future indicates a more aggressive Ukraine.
What is Kiev’s possible intent. Operationally, it could hold onto the area under its control but this could imply extended deployment, opening doors to piecemeal counter-strikes. Alternatively, it could withdraw onto a defensible line and keep Russian forces at bay. The line would include max built up areas under its control, as these could be bargaining chips. Most importantly, the operation has slowed down Russia’s offensive in other regions.
The advantages for Ukraine would be that, firstly, it could trade the area occupied for regions under Russia’s control, in case it continues to hold, beating back Russian counter-strikes, which are bound to follow. Secondly, they could be bargaining chips in the event of any peace talks or the declaration of a ceasefire.
Few lessons emerge from the Ukrainian operations. Firstly, never discard strategic intelligence reports without proper assessment. Secondly, even the best of technologies cannot guarantee that you will never be surprised. Finally, never underestimate your opponent, no matter how weak.
Expecting Ukraine to only react to their offensive actions and not open a new theatre was a grave error by the Kremlin. There is no doubt that inputs on Russian deployment and launch of the offensive would have been discussed between Kiev and its western advisors.
The nomination of a non-military individual, Alexei Dyumin, to lead the operation implies Putin lack’s trust on his own Generals as also how serious he considers the invasion. Immediate rolling of heads of the military brass within the Kremlin, responsible for ignoring the warnings as also being caught off-guard, would convey the opposite of what Moscow is projecting, a trivial incursion. This will happen but subsequently.
For India, the invasion and Moscow’s military countermeasures would be ongoing when PM Modi visits Kiev on 23rd August. It was hoped that he would be able to build consensus for talks and a ceasefire. All appears to be nixed with this invasion. With the tide turning in favour of Kiev, a ceasefire would be unacceptable to Moscow at this stage. Neither would Putin negotiate areas under Russia’s under control with that under Ukraine in Kursk. How will PM Modi negotiate this minefield is to be seen.