Wars are linked but will America act The Statesman 15 Sep 2026

https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4199053/Delhi-The-Statesman/15-09-2026

Wars are linked but will America act The Statesman 15 Sep 2026

          The ongoing conflicts, Ukraine and Iran, may be distant from each other but both appear linked in some manner. Both have impacted the global economy, including enhancing costs of oil and grains. Refineries have given emphasis on refining crude for rather than for heavy fuel oil used by the shipping industry. This could increase shipping costs in the days ahead. US actions of imposing sanctions have further impacted availability of fuel.

Russia and Iran have always had close defence ties and both have backed the other in some manner. Iran provided Russia drones as also technology to enhance its capabilities and production in the initial days of the conflict. These wreaked havoc in Ukraine alongside Russian missiles. There are also reports that, in recent days, some drones overflew or landed in neighbouring countries, with are part of NATO, forcing the US to dispatch its CIA director John Ratcliffe to Moscow to serve a caution to Russia. There is a fear that Russia might decide to test NATO by engaging nations bordering it in some manner.

Moscow has been providing Tehran with intelligence inputs, technical cooperation and logistics support through the Caspian Sea route. This implies Iran obtains real time details of US naval vessels and regional bases enabling it to target them precisely. Details of Israeli military targets have also been provided by Russian intelligence. Iran’s missile program has been backed by Russia. The C430L program involved Russia providing Iran with ramjet propulsion technology to develop supersonic missiles. Both nations have avoided sanctions exploiting the Caspian Sea Route, though Israel has damaged Iran’s Caspian Sea ports.

The US, which was amongst the strongest backers to Ukraine is now involved in a war with no end in Iran. It is itself running short of critical missiles. As per a report in the Los Angeles Times, the US possessed an inventory of 2800 Patriot and THAAD missiles at the commencement of the conflict. By end July, the number dropped to 1100. These have now been declared as ‘scarce assets,’ and it is claimed that current stocks are insufficient to deter either a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or a Russian attack on a NATO state, which is another reason why Ratcliffe rushed to Moscow.

Ukraine faces shortfalls of military hardware. The EU President, Ursula Von Der Leyen, confirmed on X that Ukraine has sought European support to procure PAC-3 missiles for its Patriot missiles. Kiev is now compelled to employ its older MIG 29 aircraft with outdated R-60 missiles to target Russian launched Geran 3, 4 and 5 drones as also Banderol missiles, which travel at speeds exceeding 700 Kms per hour. It is also short of missiles for its F 16 aircraft. Added has been corruption and mismanagement in its procurement process.

China, which has close ties with both, Russia and Iran, is also seeking an end to the conflict. However, it wants neither to lose. Hence, while talking peace and end of conflict, it desires it in a manner that both nations end up gaining in some form. This will strengthen its hold in Eurasia. China supports Iran by providing dual-use components and chip tools for its drone and missiles alongside access to its BeiDou navigational satellite systems, while procuring discounted oil. China is also known to have supplied Russia with key material for its drone industry. It is also the largest procurer of Russian crude.

Ukraine too has been involved in the Iran conflict. Apart from hitting an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea in end July, killing a sailor, it also sent specialists and drones to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, and Kuwait for defending them against Iranian drone strikes. Iran has declared Ukraine as a target for future strikes.    

Both conflicts appear stalled. The Russian economy has been damaged and there are shortfalls of oil and gas. Ukraine is facing the brunt of Russian missile and drone power. Its ability to intercept them is diminishing by the day. Frontlines remain largely frozen. However, both sides appear unwilling to move forward toward a resolution.

On the Iran front, the war is now on a tit-for-tat move. Currently, both are engaging oil tankers of the other. The blockade continues with occasional strikes. The US claims it is winning the economic war over Iran but there are no signs of Tehran bending. The Straits of Hormuz remain closed despite Trump’s bombastic claims of them being open. Trump, while refusing to term it as a ‘war’ described it as ‘small potatoes’ which has thus far cost the US $ 37.5 billion, not counting damages to its assets. There are reports that the US may vacate its damaged bases in the Middle East, playing to Iran’s demands. 

While Qatar and Pakistan appear to be negotiating between the US and Iran, Trump sent his chief negotiator Steve Witkoff and Son-in-law Jared Kushner to Moscow and Kiev to attempt to negotiate a settlement to the conflict. Both are not professional negotiators, rather businessmen, seeking long-term profits. Trump also spoke to Putin. Differences between Ukraine and Russia appear to be difficult to mend unless one side bends. The feedback on the talks mention that Putin has refused to budge from his stand that Ukraine cede territory, reduce its armed forces as also abandon hopes of joining NATO.

Zelensky claims Russia is losing territory and increased losses, wanted security guarantees and a strong army as also was hesitant to surrender territory. With winters approaching, the war will continue, with Russia continuing to target Ukraine’s power infrastructure making it another difficult winter. The threat to NATO will remain as before.

Both conflicts have the ability to expand. The Iran conflict with involvement of Houthis and Ukraine with Russia targeting NATO nations. In case that happens, ending the wars would be more difficult.

Between the two conflicts, the Iranian one appears easier to resolve as a signed MOU already exists. Iran has been insisting that the US must accept agreed terms, while Trump dithers. The war is drawing the US’s attention away from the Ukraine conflict, which could spill into NATO territory, as also the Indo-Pacific, where China is expanding its military power. It will also impact US mid-term elections hurting Trump. If the Iran conflict is resolved, the possibility of the Ukraine conflict falling into place increases. Will the US act?