Asim Munir’s dilemma The Statesman 29 Sept 2026
https://epaper.thestatesman.com/4204099/Delhi-The-Statesman/29-09-2026#page/7/2
Asim Munir’s dilemma The Statesman 29 Sept 2026
South Asia Terrorism Portal mentions that in 2025 Pakistan suffered 1077 terrorist related incidents losing 655 civilians and 1229 security personnel. This year it has faced 1050 incidents and lost 662 civilians and 1021 security personnel. In 2024 it had 790 terrorist incidents. The balance of this year would mean far more terrorist incidents as also losses than previous years. The two major regions where terrorist activities are on the rise are Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Baluchistan. There are many parts of these regions where the Pak army fears to tread or only moves in large numbers.
Pakistan’s DGISPR, their military spokesperson, regularly holds press conferences and releases statements on attacks. What emerges from his long ramblings are a joke. The number of militants killed is announced with glee while all failures and major losses are blamed on India and Afghanistan, with no evidence. Not a single country including their close partners, China and Turkey, have joined them in their criticism of India and Afghanistan. The Pak army’s intent is to cover their failures.
If numbers given by their DGISPR on terrorists killed are to be believed, Pakistan has eliminated thousands of Baloch as also TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban) fighters in KP, not counting countless other bodies found after being eliminated in extra-judicial operations. Many more remain untraceable. Peaceful protestors seeking answers to random killings and arrests are thrown in jail. Criticism of its actions in international forums including in UN HQs at Geneva and New York have left it embarrassed.
The DGISPR claims of success in Baluchistan is vastly in contrast to their army chief Asim Munir mentioning in an address to overseas Pakistanis, ‘Do Pakistan’s enemies think that a handful of terrorists can decide the fate of Pakistan?… You think these 1,500 terrorists belonging to BLA, BLF, and BRA, etc., can take away Baluchistan from us? We will beat the hell out of these terrorists very soon… Even ten generations of terrorists cannot harm Baluchistan and Pakistan.’ However, these 1500 continue to exist, despite their DGISPR claiming many more than this number has been eliminated.
Pakistan has employed air power and artillery against its own people in Baluchistan and KP. You only do so when either you consider those residing in the region as your enemies or you are losing control and need such immense firepower to regain it. In Pakistan’s case both scenarios hold true. Punjab dominated Pakistan considers Pashtuns and Baloch as enemies, believing their loyalties are not with them. Further, their army is losing complete control. Every day there are attacks which embarrass the army and it is forced to suppress its reporting in national media.
Adding to their security concerns is POJK, where a civil disobedience movement has locked down the region. Movement to and from Pakistan’s posts are difficult as also is re-supply. Rawalpindi has been compelled to move its reserve formations, meant to operate against India, to manage growing movements in its western provinces. POJK is locked down with all communication cut. Additional security forces have been inducted and brutality against peaceful protests is on the rise. It is only a matter of time because peaceful protests turn into an armed struggle.
In such a scenario, Pakistan has to ensure that its forces are not stretched beyond a point. Thus, despite all its verbal bravado against India on holding of the IWT in abeyance, the Pak army has done nothing. Asim Munir had thundered in his meeting with his Corps Commanders that Pak will take ‘all necessary measures’ to secure Pakistan’s ‘rightful share’ of water. Their DGISPR as part of his theatrics stated in a university address, ‘If you stop our water, we will stop your breath.’ Till now it has been just words. Further, to prevent India from exploiting the growing crisis within, the Pak army has curtailed infiltration into J and K.
The scenario building for Pak is far more than just internal. Externally also Pak remains under pressure. It is a signatory to the Mecca pact as also the SMDA (Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement) with the Saudis, both orchestrated by Asim Munir. Riyadh is facing its worst attacks in a long time from the Houthis. The US has refused to act, while Israel promises support in exchange for Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords, which it hesitates.
Pakistan, which had claimed at the time of signing of both pacts, ‘that an attack on one, is an attack on all’ is now cornered. When it inked these pacts, it had presumed the war would end soon. It had never assumed that it could be sucked into the conflict. Engaging the Houthis would draw in Iran, a neighbour. It is not something Pakistan can risk. It has now begun playing games claiming the pacts are defensive and it would provide whatever support the Saudis need.
Its biggest fear is being pulled into a land conflict with Yemen. The Houthis have warned of devastation to Karachi in case Pak attacks them. No wonder Pakistan’s famed DGISPR stumbled when he said ‘We will continue to defend Kingdom of Saudi Arabia against any aggression,’ while his foreign office commented that no military action is being contemplated. A word from Riyadh and Pak would have to run. After all, Saudi Arabia has propped up its economy with a USD 8 billion loan.
Pakistan’s internal scenario does not permit it to withdraw forces from within to fight a land war with the Houthis, which could drag on for years. It already has tense borders with India and Afghanistan. Its economy is on life support, oil is being rationed, unemployment is at unprecedented levels and inflation is soaring. Losing soldiers in a foreign battlefield might be the last straw, leading to an uprising.
It also fears India exploiting the scenario and activating its Eastern front and hence cannot reduce deployment along the LOC. India commencing artillery fire and enhancing deployment along the LOC is enough for Pak to withdraw troops from its troubled provinces. The IWT remains in abeyance and it has done nothing.
The Pak army has been playing to the gallery all along, with little success, other than through animated videos and fake narratives, all of which get busted with time. The time for such drama has ended. Reality dawns. It has to decide which front to manage, internal or external. Wondering how long more will Asim Munir take the Saudi’s for granted and do nothing.