Iran quagmire US strategies totally failed Raksha Anirveda 23 Jul 2026
Iran quagmire: US strategies totally failed Raksha Anirveda 23 Jul 2026
The world is tired of hearing President Donal Trump screaming victory and going back to war the next day. It is equally sick of listening to Trump’s claim that the US has destroyed Iran militarily or that Iranians have approached them for dialogue. Adding to ongoing illogical statements by Trump were his two contradictory comments, within a short time span. His first one was, ‘The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran.’ Shortly after he said, ‘I’ll become the guardian of the strait and will take reimbursement. We’re gonna get paid.’
Five hours later he reversed again. This time, he stated, ‘I have decided to replace the 20% US Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that various Gulf States will be making into the US. Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the same time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future.’ This was because Trump realized that charging toll was possibly unenforceable.
The constant change of stance of Trump is nothing but a sign of confusion on how to end a war which is impacting the US economy, diverting military attention to a region which he can well avoid and a conflict he should never have started. Iran is not playing the game as per the US script, refusing to back down, making it difficult for Trump to find a way out. The US cannot deploy its navy in the straits fearing Iranian attacks. It can only blockade the straits to prevent Iranian oil exports. Iran has been mocking every statement made by him. On toll, it promised to charge lesser amounts, implying it remains firm on extracting toll in the long-term.
It was well known that the so-called Islamabad MOU inked on 17th Jun mentioning finalization of an agreement with Iran in 60 days was too much to ask for. Iran has never been in a rush in negotiations. Its political system is not akin to the US where the leadership has limited time to show what it has achieved, before its tenure ends. Conversely, the longer the talks, the more time for Iran to rebuild its military capabilities. A catch 22 situation for the US. The breakdown in trust between the two sides has been high and bridging it will not be easy.
The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), negotiated during President Obama’s tenure, was achieved without a single bullet being fired and at no cost to the US exchequer, though it took five years, whereas this conflict has already cost the US, 200 billion dollars, not counting damages to its assets in the Middle East. If these are included it would be well beyond USD 500 billion. Every day the US war machinery remains deployed, including in imposing a blockade, is an added cost, which the US taxpayer is paying. Expecting Gulf nations to share the war cost is another of Trump’s dreams.
Iranian infrastructure may be destroyed but not the will of the people. The more the attacks, the closer they bond to back the regime. Current airstrikes are aimed at isolating the Bandar Abbas port region, possibly opening doors for a limited land operation, which the Iranians appear to expect. Will the US risk a land invasion is to be seen.
Trump’s threat to take over Iranian oil, at the initial stages of the war, worked against the US and is now being exploited by the regime to garner public support. This was a mistake which now cannot be reversed. For Iran, the Hormuz Straits are its last potent card for negotiations in its favour. It cannot let that be lost to the US and hence it attacks any ships which take a route different from what it lays out.
No nation, especially Islamic, despite suffering, will ever surrender to Israel and its senior partner, the US. If it does, it would be the ultimate disgrace. Air power alone can never bring about a regime change. US may destroy Iran’s military capabilities but if, in retaliation, Iran successfully strikes one US ship, the reputation of the US sinks. The US has more credibility to lose than Iran.
Trump’s threat to charge tolls have given credence to Iran to claim the same once the conflict ends. Iran has been demanding this right since the war began. As per the International Maritime Organization (IMO) no state can charge for navigation by ships in an international waterway and the Straits of Hormuz is an international waterway. Both the US and Iran are members of the IMO. Iran has now threatened to close the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits in conjunction with the Houthis and the al-Shabab of Somalia, in case the US attacks their infrastructure. It has members of its IRGC embedded with the Houthis. This could be a major blow to global shipping.
Despite his threats and warnings to NATO leaders in the recently concluded NATO summit in Turkey, not a single one has entered the conflict. This angers Trump as he realizes he is alone in this misadventure. He has repeatedly mentioned that the strait is not used by the US but largely by Europe and Asia. Addressing the press alongside new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, Trump said, ‘I don’t like the concept of a fee, but at the same time, it’s not fair that we’re protecting this Strait for the entire world.’ Trump is in a bind because it was the war which resulted in the closure of the straits and re-opening it falls on the US.
His claims of saving the world by denying Iran nuclear weapons has not been swallowed by any nation. The world seeks an end to the conflict, which Trump cannot do, unless Iran cooperates, as it would signal failure. His options are limited and Iran is well aware of the same. Iran’s striking back at US military bases in the region is damaging the US’s military capabilities and power. Loss of US military personnel in these strikes is adding to pressure on Trump.
While Trump avoids comparing the present conflict with either Vietnam nor Afghanistan, claiming it is only four months since it began, the burgeoning expenditure on maintaining forces as also destruction to US assets is slowly reaching a similar figure. The war is nowhere near termination and the US is already running out of missiles essential to stop Iran’s missile launches.
Trump has still not achieved the victory he set out to, despite the US possessing overwhelming military power. He has no strategy to resistance offered by Iran. In the next stage, in desperation, he could commence targeting civilian infrastructure resulting in civilian casualties impacting the global reputation of US armed forces, which still suffer from the My Lai killings in Vietnam and the Shajarah Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school bombing in Minab, Iran, killing 168 school children. It would not desire another blot on its name.
The Iranian quagmire is Trump’s making and he has to find a way out. Application of brute force is not the solution. Negotiations are a slow process but must be followed through. While breaks in ceasefire need to be responded to, keeping doors open for negotiations is equally important. Further, expecting talks to conclude in a month or two, after the ceasefire, is being unrealistic. The fear of Iran rebuilding its military capabilities, during the negotiation process, is another factor impacting Trump’s decision-making.
Iran rejecting the role of Pakistan as a mediator and walking out of the ‘Islamabad MOU,’ is another blow to the entire process. The conflict cannot end with Trump’s current strategy. It needs negotiation by a nation which has trust of all parties involved, US, Iran and Israel. This can only happen if all sides independently approach a possible mediator. Options appear limited. Will any nation take the bait, if approached.