Mecca pact and implications for India The Excelsior 31 Aug 2026
https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/mecca-pact-and-implications-for-india/
Mecca pact and implications for India The Excelsior 31 Aug 2026
The Middle East has always been a volatile region with conflicts, a mix of governments, oil and non-oil states as also a clash between sects and religions. The US, which possesses nine bases in the region with a multitude of temporary bases has been the net security provider. Saudi Arabia has been seeking a NATO type security pact for a few years, largely with the US. Discussions on the same ended with Hamas’s attack on Israel and its massive retaliation. Post the attack on Qatar in Sept 2025, targeting the Hamas leadership by Israel and no condemnation by the US, the need for a security pact, beyond the US, grew. Barely a week later, the Saudi-Pakistan SDMA (Strategic Defence Mutual Agreement) was inked, though claimed to be under discussion for some time. The message to the US was that there are options, other than it.
The Saudi’s, whose major threats emanated from Iran and its proxies, was seeking protection from further threats. Pakistan deployed 8000 troops in Saudi Arabia, but did not act against Iranian missiles as also Houthi attacks. Islamabad shares a 900 Kms border with Iran along the troubled Baluchistan province and is aware that tensions with Iran could impact its control over the region hence was unwilling to engage it. For the Saudi’s this was unacceptable, especially since they were funding Pak.
The Saudi’s, on their part, have displayed no intent in participating in Pakistan’s conflicts with either Afghanistan or India. They condemned the Pahalgam attack and Red Fort blasts of last year and have close economic and diplomatic ties with India. Saudi Arabia and India have a joint working security group on terrorism. They were neutral on Operation Sindoor. Thus, the pact was more for Pakistan’s financial security, enhanced diplomatic support and a greater role in the region, while providing security to Saudi Arabia.
Turkey, though protected by a NATO agreement, supplies weapons to Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Turkey’s concerns may not be the same as the Saudis but they merge as far as Israel are concerned. It was reported that the draft agreement on the Mecca pact (involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan) was circulated between the three nations from Jan this year. Erdogan, the Turkish president, would have discussed the same with Trump during his meeting with him, on the sideline of the NATO summit in Turkey in July this year. Thus, its entry, into a pact with two other US allies, would have been approved. However, it is likely that the US would impress upon them not to target Israel nor would it reduce its bases in the region.
Turkey and Pakistan bring trained forces into the pact, while Saudi provides funds for development of their defence capabilities as also defence industries. Nuclear protection is not part of the agreement. There is also no mention of joint structures like NATO nor inter-operability as also joint training. These could emerge in the future and need to be watched as does sharing of intelligence. Terming it as a Sunni Alliance or Islamic NATO is rushing too far ahead as it only comprises of three nations. It could change in case others join.
Egypt and Jordan were offered a chance to join but they rejected, possibly due to their peace agreements with Israel. They were not keen to be involved in a conflict with it. Reports also mention that Iran has also been invited to join the pact, the same not being confirmed. If that be the case, then the pact is not aimed at Iran, but rather is a political and diplomatic tool alongside development of capabilities or aimed at India and Israel.
Each nation has varying concerns. Saudi Arabia is concerned about attacks on its soil from Iran and its proxies, largely Houthis and militias in Iraq, which it attacked alongside the US recently. Turkey is impacted by happenings in Northern Syria, Kurdish rebels as also continuing tensions with Israel. The Greece-Cyprus-Israel axis is another concern. Pakistan is battling insurgencies in its western provinces, is involved in a conflict with Afghanistan and continued tensions with India.
Iran is another matter. Pakistan kept Iran in the loop on the Mecca pact, implying it has no intent to engage it. Reports also mention that Iran has been invited to join the pact, thereby removing the Sunni tag as also reducing current tensions in the region. Its entry would also prevent the Houthis and other proxies from engaging Saudi Arabia, removing its concerns. Whether this will happen is to be seen. Joining the pact would imply reduction in support to the US by nations in the region, denial of bases to attack Iran, funding for its reconstruction, as also ending economic isolation of Iran. They would be the negotiators between the US and Iran. Iran would also provide the muscle to keep Israel under check.
Bangladesh, which has no commonality in any scenario with the nations involved in the pact, has indicated that it may consider joining. Whether it would, is another question. Bangladesh Foreign Affairs Adviser, Humayun Kabir, stated in an interview that it is considering the same, ‘taking into account its own interests and the changing dynamics of the global economy and trade.’ Turkey has been attempting to sell its military hardware to Bangladesh in recent years. Simultaneously, Bangladesh’s economy, including exports, trade and power transmissions are all linked to India. It has to be careful in its actions.
For India, Bangladesh joining will add to its security concerns, especially as its secure Eastern flank would now house Pak and Turkish intelligence agencies. Bangladesh and Pakistan collaboration in intelligence and military cooperation is already evident. The entry of Turkish and Pak navies into the Bay of Bengal would need monitoring.
How is India impacted. The pact mentions joint action against ‘unprovoked aggression.’ India only reacts to terrorist strikes on its soil. This is not ‘unprovoked.’ Where Pakistan gains are that the pact opens doors for greater diplomatic leverage, financing, technology and military interoperability. Turkey has anyway been supplying weapons to Pakistan; it could now also provide them with technology, despite India and Turkey seeking to mend their ties. Recent reports mention that Turkey has delivered a large consignment of drones and associated systems to Pakistan.
In any pact of this nature what needs to be observed is beyond what is written and how does the future flow. What should be monitored is whether the pact encourages interoperability, joint exercises and if so, then at what level, as also coordination in which fields, cyber, missile-production, maritime and/ or intelligence. Level of meetings between nations based on the pact would be another indicator. India and Israel should together monitor the direction in which the pact flows.
India must continue building its ties with nations in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, with which it already has a joint security working group, UAE, with whom it has strategic Defence Partnership, Oman, its closest military partner in the region, with whom India has a port access agreement and Israel, ties with whom are close. Indians remain the preferred community in the Middle East, contributing to its development. The benefit for India is that geo-economics has greater leverage than geo-politics or military pacts in the current era.
While India continues developing its ties, it should also pay specific attention to its defence industry, ensuring its capabilities are not lacking. As the CDS said, ‘Unless the Mecca Pact says it is not against India, we must assume it is against India,’ adding, ‘it has major security implications.’