The Houthis and the Mecca tri-lateral pact MyIndMakers 19 Sept 2026
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The Houthis and the Mecca tri-lateral pact MyIndMakers 19 Sept 2026
The US launched Operation Rough Rider against the Houthis, also termed as Ansar Allah, from Mar-May 2025, which involved over a thousand strikes, resulting in the Houthis expending most of their munitions, in retaliation. The US had targeted the Houthis in response to attacks on their shipping in the Red Sea since late 2023 in response to the Gaza conflict. The US had concentrated on Houthi weapon stockpiles. With both sides aware that air strikes alone cannot bring about decisive results, a tentative ceasefire was brokered by Oman and the Houthis promised not to engage US shipping.
The Houthis military power was degraded and hence they did not join Iran in retaliating to the US-Israel launched Operation Midnight Hammer in Jun last year. The same was the scenario when war again resumed in Feb this year. Over a period of time the Houthis rebuilt their stockpiles. Iran meanwhile transferred munitions as also advisors to Yemen to ensure that their ability to respond increases.
The Houthis watched as Iran impacted the global economy by shutting down the Straits of Hormuz in retaliation to US strikes. They had attempted the same in the Red Sea but with little effect. As Hormuz shut, Riyadh began shifting its oil exports from its Eastern Coast to its Western, exploiting the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb straits. The Houthis now realized that they had the power to impose a similar blockade against Saudi Arabia, thereby impacting global oil prices, in case it acted against them. A Saudi Arabia led coalition has been maintaining a naval blockade off Yemen for almost a decade.
The trigger for the Houthis was the 13 July bombing of the Sanaa airport by the Saudi backed Yemen government to prevent the landing of an Iranian flight, breaking a ceasefire which existed since 2022. The Houthis claimed the flight was carrying back those who had attended the funeral of the Ayatollah in Tehran, while reality was that the flight also had Iranian IRGC officials and military equipment. In retaliation, on 23rd July, the Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers closing the straits for Riyadh and entering the conflict. This led to a spike in the cost of oil.
The Houthis now commenced targeting Saudi Arabia with missiles. Iran backed militias in Iraq also launched drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities leading to Saudi Arabia joining the US in airstrikes on Iranian proxies in Iraq in end July. Currently both, the militias in Iraq as also the Houthis in Yemen, are targeting Saudi Arabian infrastructure. The Houthis are demanding an end to the blockade.
To add to Saudi Arabia’s problems the Houthis have broken through frozen frontlines and seized key locations around the vital Bab al-Mandeb Strait, including the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands and the Red Sea port city of Mocha. This has enhanced their ability to close the Red Sea route.
The scenario is now difficult for Saudi Arabia. Its East-West pipeline which carries 4% of global oil was shut down due to a drone strike launched from Iraq. Its major oil export routes are now blocked by Iran and the Houthis. It was to cater for these contingencies itself that Saudi pushed through two major pacts, the SMDA (Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement) and the Mecca Pact. The SMDA was between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and was inked in Sept last year and the Mecca Pact, adding Turkey to the list was signed on 07 Aug.
However, since attacks began, there has been no response. Only the Pak defence minister, who handles everything but defence, commented on TV that Pakistan is ‘bound by the terms and conditions of this pact, and we will honour them in case there is a need.’ He was immediately corrected by the foreign office which issued a statement mentioning, ‘as of now, there is no discussion of this kind.’
It was only the US which acted. US CENTCOM convened a closed-door meeting in Germany which was attended by senior military officials of Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt. The discussion focussed on implications of the Houthi advance and broader security escalations involving Iran. Simultaneously, it has been Israel which has been sharing intelligence with Saudi Arabia on the Houthis through the US.
Meanwhile Iran has washed its hands off, claiming the Houthis are acting independently. However, it is evident that the Houthis are embedded with Iraqi militias and are helping them plan their attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Even the US refused to step in to support Saudi Arabia. Trump claimed that the Houthis have contacted them and indicated they do not want to engage the US. Washington too has its hands full in dealing with Iran, has shortages of critical munitions and does not seek to open a new front. It is also reported that the Houthis, in a meeting with US officials in Oman have mentioned that they will not attack US, Israeli or commercial vessels, less those of Saudi Arabia.
Trump is concerned as mid-term polls draw close and the rise in bond yields hitting 5%, could push up borrowing costs. US diesel prices have crossed USD 6 to a gallon.
The scenario took a turn for the worse when the Saudi’s reported that their forces intercepted a Houthi drone near Mecca. The Houthis denied the same claiming it was a ‘lie and a fabrication.’ In response, Pakistan offered sympathy and support only. Its PM, Shehbaz Sharief tweeted, ‘I condemn in the strongest possible terms the vile and heinous attempt to target the sacred site in Honoured Mecca with a drone attack.’
The Pak DGISPR held a press conference alongside his naval and air force counterparts and stated that the Mecca Pact is only for collective deterrence rather than regional hegemony or complicating ties with Iran. This implies that the pact will not be implemented despite Saudi Arabia facing attacks from the Houthis. The only promise made by Turkey and Pakistan is to pursue diplomatic efforts to stop the conflict. This despite Saudi being forced to cut oil exports, the mainstay of its economy. In desperation Riyadh has approached Beijing to apply pressure on Iran to reign in the Houthis.
On the contrary, it is Israel which offered to support Riyadh militarily provided it decided to move towards normalization of ties, though the Israeli military is against engaging the Houthis. In case Riyadh accepts the offer, the Mecca Pact is dead before it even starts, as the only common foe for Pakistan and Turkey, Israel, is now backing Riyadh, which they have refused to do. In case attacks continue, Saudi Arabia will have no option but to turn to Israel for support.
World oil prices have crossed USD 100 a barrel and unless the war is stopped between the US and Iran as also Houthis and Riyadh, the global economy would face a backlash. A solution needs to be found and soon. The easiest is Saudi lifting the blockade of Yemen. The question is whether it can be pushed enough to do so.